Baseball Prospectus' expected wins statistic

Baseball Prospectus defines its "expected wins" statistic as follows:

Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).

I found the pitchers whose actual win totals exceeded their expected win total most dramatically. This is a quick and dirty way of identifying potentially overvalued pitchers. Here are the top ten, along with some other notables:

1. Brandon Webb
2. Andrew Sonnanstine
3. Ervin Santana
4. Livan Hernandez
5. Mike Mussina
6. Tim Hudson
7. Tim Redding
8. Joe Saunders
9. Aaron Cook
10. Micah Owings

11. Ted Lilly
14. Tim Lincecum
15. Carlos Zambrano
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka
17. Brad Penny
18. John Maine

Chances are, you don't own fatty Livan Hernandez anyway, but some of these guys could be sell-high candidates.

There's a noteworthy theme here. Most of these players are on good offensive teams (Redding and Lincecum being the notable exceptions).

Obviously, Brandon Webb is a great pitcher and you're very fortunate if you own him. On the other hand, his value will probably never be higher (Matthew Berry over at ESPN ranks Webb 10th overall). So, if you can trade Webb straight-up for Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, or a top-notch hitter, I'd do it. If you can't get big-time talent, though, hang onto him and enjoy the ride.

Tim Hudson should be sold high if possible. The ERA (2.54) will not stay this low, the strikeouts (35 in 56 2/3 innings) aren't great, and he's just not going to continue to win 2 out of every 3 starts.

I absolutely adore Tim Lincecum, but his value will also probably never be higher, especially when you consider how pathetic the Giants offense is.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is an interesting case. I highly encouraged readers to draft him this year, but he is a screaming sell-high candidate. The 4:3 K:BB ratio belies his 2.45 ERA and 6 wins. I do think his control will get better, but the ERA will definitely go up and the wins will definitely decrease in frequency. Some possible targets: C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, and Erik Bedard.

How about the flip-side? Here are those who have been the most "unlucky":

1. Shawn Chacon
2. Joe Blanton
3. Odalis Perez
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Shawn Hill
6. Adam Eaton
7. Justin Germano
8. Jeff Francis
9. Aaron Harang
10. Hiroki Kuroda

12. Matt Cain
13. Adam Wainwright
21. Clay Buchholz

The correlation between pitching for a poor offensive team and being an unlucky pitcher is obvious.

The names that stand out here are Felix Hernandez (who does pitch for a shitty offensive team, but is still very talented), Hiroki Kuroda, Aaron Harang, Adam Wainwright, and Clay Buchholz (whose current DL-status could get you a very nice discount).

Other than those five, this group is not incredibly interesting. Feel free to ignore the rest.