Here is my first stab at projecting the lineups in the National League. Here's the American League. Obviously, this is an incredibly difficult and imprecise task. Things will change immensely between now and opening day. Also, I'm not psychic and I don't know what all of these managers are thinking. But this is very important information when you're trying to project runs and RBI. A player is significantly more valuable hitting in the third or fourth spots, than the eighth or ninth spots.
If you see anything that is obviously wrong, please let me know. I'm especially interesting in links to quotes by managers indicating where they intend to put particular players in the lineup like this one.
Notes
- I had the most trouble with the Diamondbacks, Pirates (like it matters much), Cardinals, Padres, and Cubs.
- It looks like Pablo Sandoval will hit third, which makes him even more valuable than I originally thought, considering he'll have catcher eligibility.
- I really hope Votto, Phillips, and Bruce hit 3-4-5. And I think they will.
- The D-Backs lineup will probably change constantly. Upton could hit anywhere from fourth to eighth. If he gets off to a good start, I would expect to see him moved up in the order.
- There's some talk of the Mets going with Castillo-Beltran-Reyes in the 1-2-3 spots. This would probably help Reyes' value and hurt Beltran's. I doubt it will happen, though.
- I went ahead and assumed the Dodgers would sign Manny since no one else seems interested.
- I didn't realize the Giants viewed Fred Lewis as a run-producer, but the combination of hitting fifth in the order plus 30-steal ability makes Lewis a pretty attractive sleeper.
- Placing Bradley between Lee and Ramirez in the Cubs' order is partially wishful thinking on my part. I think it makes a lot of sense, but Piniella may disagree. There's also talk of moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot. I'm not sure where he'd go or who would replace him.
2 comments:
For St. Louis, you have 4 outfielders and no place for their SS, Khalil Greene. I also read an article today saying that Schumaker is trying out for 2nd base. Either Duncan or Rasmus will get the last outfield spot. 3rd base will be David Freese until Glaus comes back. Here's my guess for the lineup: Schumaker, Duncan/Rasmus, Pujols, Ludwick, Ankiel, Freese, Greene, Molina.
Thank you very much, Mike. That four outfielder, no shortstop thing was just plain stupidity on my part. Thanks for the insight on the other areas. Your input will be reflected in my next update.
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