2008 Fantasy Sleepers - Starting Pitchers

I'm a big fan of loading up on pitchers like Chad Billingsley, John Maine, Rich Hill, and Jeremy Bonderman in rounds 9-15 of a twelve-team league. But there are always going to be some pitchers taken after that who will contribute. We call them sleepers. Here they are - your 2008 MLB Sleepers who qualify at starting pitcher (in order of sleeperishness):


Sleepers
1. Andrew Miller - He wasn't great last year (5.63 ERA in 13 starts), but the K/9 rate (7.9) was somewhat promising. Add to that a switch to AAAA (the National League) and you've got yourself a sleeper. You may want to bench him when he faces the Mets, Phillies, and possibly the Braves, but this kid is going to dominate the Pirates, Nationals, Astros, Reds, and Giants of the world. I also don't think the Marlins lineup is going to be as pathetic as everyone else seems to think.

2. Matt Garza - I can see it now: Garza is going to be terrible against the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Tigers, but Cy-Young-worthy against all other teams. He was a big-time strikeout pitcher in the minors and started to show some of that skill last season (7.3 K/9) rate. I think he's going to bump that above 8.0 this year as his comfort level continues to improve. And keep in mind that the Rays' lineup has no problem scoring, so run support shouldn't be an issue.

3. Randy Wolf - He missed the last half of 2007 due to a torn labrum, but there are two big things that the Wolfman has going for him: 8.2 K/9 rate and a move to Petco Park. Based on those two things alone, Wolf is worth a late-round pick.

4. Ian Kennedy - His minor league track record indicates that Kennedy is a strikeout pitcher. I'm not completely convinced, as he's small (5' 11") and doesn't have a dominating out-pitch like Tim Lincecum's curve, but I think he'll manage something in the neighborhood of 8.0 K/9. With Joba Chamberlain starting the year in the bullpen, Kennedy appears to have a spot in the rotation. The Yankees score runs, by the way.

5. Edinson Volquez - He has control issues, but in 51 AAA innings last year, Volquez struck out 66 batters. He wasn't quite as good in a six-start major league trial (7.7 K/9), but a move to the NL Central should help. The walk- and homer-rates worry me a little, but hey, he's a sleeper. It's not like you're going to spend an eighth-round pick on him.



Semi-Sleepers
1. Oliver Perez - 1) High strikeout rate, 2) Good run support, 3) Improving walk and homer rates, 4) Going around the 180th pick in a lot of drafts. Love it.

2. Jeremy Bonderman - Anyone who reads this blog regularly is going to start thinking that I have a thing for freckly guys with funny noses. I just think he's a better pitcher than his draft status would indicate. (I like freckly girls with funny noses, by the way.)


Deep Sleepers
1. Manny Parra - Good strikeouts, decent control, low homerun rate. I promise to alert you when he gets called up mid-season, so that you can participate in his Yovanni-Gallardo-esque contribution.

2. Gio Gonzalez - My guess is that the A's would prefer to let Gonzalez spend the year at AAA since they're in no rush to start his arbitration clock. But, if injuries force their hand, you could see Gonzalez racking up K's at a stadium near you.