It's extremely important to look for good value among the rankings of whatever fantasy website you plan on using. That's because most people are heavily influenced by the default rankings sitting right in front of them. If Yahoo! tells them that Roy Halladay is the best available player, they're at least going to consider taking him. And if Yahoo! indicates that Alex Gordon is only the 30th best player available, they're probably going to wait a couple rounds to take him. The point is, you can take advantage of others' propensity to be heavily influenced by default rankings by drafting players you want a round or two before Yahoo! or ESPN or any other site indicates they should be drafted. So, here are some of the best values among hitters that I've identified within the Yahoo! rankings. I list Fantasy Baseball Strategist's (FBS) ranking first, along with Yahoo's ranking. My full rankings can be found here. I'll take a look at pitchers soon.
Corey Hart (FBS: 33; Yahoo: 69) - Hart stands an excellent chance of providing a positive contribution in every category. Yahoo! has him going in the sixth round of a twelve-team league; therefore, I'd target him in the fifth round.
Ian Kinsler (FBS: 43; Yahoo: 63) - Kinsler's batting average was his major weakness last season, but his line drive rate (19.6%) suggests that his batting average on balls in play (.279) was unlucky. Assuming he can maintain that line drive rate, I would expect to see something like a 20-point jump in his average. Combine that with 20 homers and 20 steals and you've got one fine player. Target him in the late fourth or early fifth round.
Ryan Zimmerman (FBS: 50; Yahoo: 97) - I'm expecting Zimmerman to continue his ascent to stardom. His only weakness is steals. Otherwise, he's darn close to David Wright. With Yahoo! putting him in the early ninth round, I'd probably start looking at taking him in the seventh round, just to be safe.
Adrian Gonzalez (FBS: 55; Yahoo: 83) - I don't think my projection of 95 R, 29 HR, 107 RBI, 1 SB, and .289 AVG is overly optimistic. So, if he posts anything near that, I think he represents a great value in the sixth or seventh round.
Matt Kemp (FBS: 61; Yahoo: 121) - Oh, Matt Kemp, will you get enough playing time to justify this high of a ranking? Assuming the Dodgers aren't complete idiots, Kemp will finish the season as one of the top 100 fantasy contributors and quite possibly in the top 50. With Yahoo! placing him at the beginning of the 11th round of a twelve-team league, I think he represents tremendous value. I wouldn't take him any earlier than the sixth round simply because there are more sure things at that point, but I'll be all over Kemp in the eighth or ninth round.
Jeff Francoeur (FBS: 63; Yahoo: 116) - I've made the case for Francoeur previously. Look for him in the eighth or ninth round.
Jeremy Hermida (FBS: 98; Yahoo: 177) - I probably like Hermida more than most. I know he's been disappointing so far in his career, but I really think he'll pick up some of the RBI that Miguel Cabrera is leaving behind. Target him in the 13th or 14th round and you should get very good value.
Joey Votto (FBS: 101; Yahoo: 249) - I'm pretty sure I could manage an MLB team better than Dusty Baker, so maybe Yahoo's ranking is justified, but I just have to think Votto will force Baker's stupid, stupid hand. An added bonus with Votto is that he's eligible at both first base and outfield. Based on this ranking, you might be able to wait until rounds 16 through 18, depending on the savviness of the other owners in your league.
Justin Upton (FBS: 112; Yahoo: 195) - Upton looks like more of a sure-thing as far as playing time than someone like Matt Kemp. I don't think he'll be quite as good as Kemp right now, but he should rack up the counting stats as the full-time right fielder. I have him down for 19 HR and 18 SB but a 20/20 season is certainly not out of the question. I've seen Upton go as early as the tenth round, but I'd be more inclined to target him in the 13th through 15th round.
Kelly Johnson (FBS: 118; Yahoo: 168) - PECOTA and I care a great deal for Johnson. He has a great shot at 20 HR and 10 SB along with a bunch of runs, which represents great value for a second baseman in the 13th or 14th round.
Geovany Soto (FBS: 119; Yahoo: 186) - Big power. Plenty of playing time. He'll put up similar numbers to Kenji Johjima, but you can get him five rounds later, say the 14th round.
Mark Reynolds (FBS: 143; Yahoo: 263) - If you miss out on some of the studs at third base, you can probably wait until the 18th or 19th round and snag Reynolds. He should get you at least 20 homers, with the possibility of 35.
The guys Yahoo! forgot:
For some reason these guys were ranked way the heck out there. In some cases, I guess it's because there's still a question as to whether they'll begin the year in the majors or not.
Jay Bruce (FBS: 93; Yahoo: 710)
Evan Longoria (FBS: 121; Yahoo: 697)
Carlos Ruiz (FBS: 145; Yahoo: 826)
Felix Pie (FBS: 221; Yahoo: 939)
Not real sure where you need to target these guys. It probably depends on how smart the others are in your league.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Value Hunting in the Yahoo! Rankings - Hitters
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