2010 Fantasy Baseball Top 25 Rankings

I wasn't planning on updating this site at all this year because I'm just too darn busy, but then I noticed that a lot of people were stumbling upon this post from 2008 and thinking it was current. Obviously, I was just having some fun doing some long-term predicting at the time. So, in order to restore my good name (if it is, in fact, good), I'm posting my current top 25 for 2010. If I get really motivated, I might do a little more, but this is good enough for now. Enjoy.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Ryan Braun
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Chase Utley
6. Matt Kemp
7. Ryan Howard
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. David Wright
10. Evan Longoria
11. Mark Teixeira
12. Matt Holliday
13. Prince Fielder
14. Justin Upton
15. Troy Tulowitzki
16. Tim Lincecum
17. Ian Kinsler
18. Carl Crawford
19. Joe Mauer (I just have trouble trusting catchers. Even Joe.)
20. Roy Halladay (love the move to the NL)
21. Jose Reyes
22. Jimmy Rollins
23. Mark Reynolds
24. Jacoby Ellsbury
25. Zack Greinke

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Starting Pitchers

Explanation of FV.




Notes:

• My pitcher rankings will differ from the rankings of others more than at any other position.
• I generally don't like to draft pitchers very high because there are so many good ones to be had in the middle rounds, but if Haren or Hamels slips to the fifth round, I have to give them some serious consideration.
• Depite the fact that Halladay is ranked above Hamels and Haren, I would probably take either of those guys above him because I place such a high value on strikeouts.
• Rich Harden is the best pitcher on the planet. If he was always healthy, he'd be a perennial first round pick. I have him down for 150 IP, but if he logs 200 innings (unlikely, I know), he would rank first. So, basically, what I'm saying is that if you're a little bit of a risk-taker, draft Harden because he is really, really good.
• Javier Vazquez is a huge value this year. I feel like my projection for him is relatively conservative and it still ranks him 14th among starting pitchers. Yahoo has him ranked 28th and ESPN has him 32nd.
• I adore Kevin Slowey. Last year, I made the mistake of almost completely ignoring the WHIP category and it cost me a couple league championships. This year, if I draft a high-strikeout, high-WHIP guy like Billingsley, I want to team him with a cheap low-WHIP guy like Slowey.
• I'm neutral on David Price. I think he's very good, but I'm not convinced he'll dominate immediately.
• If Scherzer is healthy and gets a rotation spot, I like him a lot.
• Overvalued: Lackey, Oswalt, Lester, Zambrano.
• Undervalued: Beckett, Vazquez, Slowey, Lilly, Baker, Weaver.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Outfield

Here's an explanation of FV.




Notes:

• This position is incredibly deep, in my opinion. Possibly deeper than first base.
• I really like Dukes as a late-rounder. If he stays healthy, 20/20 is a near lock.
• If Kemp was hitting fourth or fifth in the Dodgers lineup, he'd probably rank in my top five outfielders. But, it sounds like he'll hit seventh which is terribly disappointing.
• I care a great deal for Rios who should hit third. He's the type of player who could very easily make a positive contribution in every category.
• I have never understood how Ichiro always gets drafted in the first three rounds.
• The upside potential of Bruce, Cruz, and Justin Upton excites me.
• McLouth and Hart seem to be slipping a little too far in most drafts. They'll both have substantial value.

2009 Projected Lineups - National League

Evidence:

• Melvin discusses Arizona Diamondbacks lineup
• Piniella gives a few hints as to the Chicago Cubs lineup
• Baker makes it pretty clear what the 3-4-5 spots will look like in the Cincinnati Red lineup
• Cooper sketches out the top of the Houston Astros lineup
• Torre gives us a pretty good idea about the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup
• This doesn't tell us much about the Philadelphia Phillies lineup but it's better than nothing
• A discussion of the issues facing the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup
• Bochy gives us a very good picture of the San Francisco Giants lineup

A commenter provided his thoughts on the St. Louis Cardinals lineup which I found helpful. The Padres are still a mystery to me and I'd be curious to get any insight on the Nationals.

2009 Projected Lineups - American League

Attempt #2.

Please offer any insight so I can make this list as accurate as possible.




Relatively easier ones: Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers.

Relatively harder ones: Mariners, A's, Indians, Blue Jays.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Shortstop

Subject to change. Here's an explanation of FV.




Notes:

• Hanley Ramirez is far and away the top player in fantasy baseball this year. If you have the first pick, you have to take him.
• Notice the considerable drop-off from Rollins to Alexei Ramirez. That's why you should consider taking Rollins ahead of guys like Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Teixeira.
• I'm assuming Andrus and Wood have full-time gigs. For Andrus, I don't think that's a stretch. Minus a Figgins or Aybar trade, Wood probably won't play full-time, so take that projection with a grain of salt.
• Drew and Tulowitzki are very close in value, in my opinion. I lean slightly toward Drew because I think he has a little more power, but I could definitely see the argument for Tulowitzki.
• If you need runs, there's nothing wrong with drafting Jeter or Young since they'll both be hitting second in stacked lineups.
• This position is not deep. If you play in a league that uses a shortstop plus a middle infielder, I would suggest overpaying for a shortstop. If you have a chance to get one of the big three, you have to take it.

2009 Projected Lineups - National League

UPDATED 2-24-09

Please help me make this list as accurate as possible.



Evidence:
Cubs
Pirates
Padres
Astros
Phillies
Reds

Lineup Value

It's important to remember where a player hits in the lineup when it comes to projecting runs and RBI. If you draft a bunch of leadoff hitters, you'll probably win the runs category but finish near the bottom in RBI. Instinctively, we all know that #3 and #4 hitters are valuable, but I've attempted to quantify it here.

Here's the method: I found the average runs scored and RBI for each batting order spot last year. Then, I put those averages into an otherwise average fantasy team - that is, an offense that would finish in the middle of the pack in all fantasy categories. To illustrate, a completely average fantasy player has about 86 runs and 84 RBI (in a 12-team standard Yahoo league). So, if you take a team a team of eight of those guys plus an average leadoff hitter, you would expect to score 794 runs (8x86 plus 106) and have 740 RBI (8x84 plus 68). That makes your team above average in runs and below average in RBI. Then the question becomes: how many additional points could you expect to earn or lose (in a roto league) with this team of eight average players plus a typical leadoff hitter versus a team of nine completely average players? The answer is below in the far right column.



I didn't bother with the number nine spot for two reasons: 1) pitchers in the NL skew the results and 2) you really shouldn't be drafting #9 hitters anyway.

I was expecting #3 hitters to be the most valuable, so this was an interesting result.

You can see who is set to benefit from their spot in the lineup with my projected AL lineups and projected NL lineups.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Mid & Late Rounds

Last week, I presented my "deep" sleepers - guys who could be had at the very end of drafts. Now, I'm listing my mid & late round sleepers. These are guys who are generally being drafted in the 10th through 19th rounds in 12-team leagues. To make this list, a player has to have the potential to move up 100 spots or so from where they're drafted to what they're actually worth at the end of the season. So, if a player is being picked with about the 120th pick (end of the 10th/beginning of the 11th round), he needs to have the potential to be picked in the late 2nd or early 3rd round next year. This is all in my opinion, obviously. I put what number pick each of these players was in my last draft as a point of reference.

Catcher
Pablo Sandoval (143) - Should hit in the middle of the Giants order. May not have catcher eligibility next year so enjoy it while you can.
Chris Iannetta (149) - 20-25 homers, good average.

First Base
Conor Jackson (204) - If 25-homer power ever comes, his high batting average and a few steals will make him very valuable.
Billy Butler (244) - If he hits in the middle of the order, Butler could produce 25 homers, 90 runs, and 100 RBI, while hitting over .300.

Second Base
Rickie Weeks (189) - I made this pick in the 16th round. Not bad for a guy who could easily hit 20 homers and steal 30 bases. Average will always be a concern.
Jose Lopez (180) - Good power from the second base spot. Could stand to run a little more, but oh well.
Ian Stewart (161) - 10 homers in half a season last year; just needs playing time.

Third Base
Edwin Encarnacion (200) - 30-homer power in the 17th round. Incredible.
Alex Gordon (213) - I still believe the talent is there.

Shortstop
Get your shortstop early. I guess Jhonny Peralta (156th pick) deserves a half-mention.

Outfield (Oh, baby)
Nelson Cruz (117) - This was my pick and I may have been overzealous, but the thought of Cruz hitting cleanup in the Rangers' stacked lineup makes me salivate. 30 homers and 110 RBI with a few steals is not out of the question. He's the next Carlos Lee. There, I said it.
Lastings Milledge (138) - Great power/speed combo.
Elijah Dukes (240) - 13 homers and 13 steals in half a season last year.
Justin Upton (196) - He's going to be a stud.
Cameron Maybin (242) - Steals will be there immediately. Power won't be bad, either. Average will be the biggest concern.
Chris Young (167) - Is he going this late in everyone's drafts? Sure, the average is ugly, but he could go 30/30. That's worth something.
Adam Jones (169) - Showed lots of promise last year.

Starting Pitcher (Pitchers went high in this draft)
Zack Greinke (141) - Run support is my only concern. Other than that, he's a stud.
Kevin Slowey (165) - The WHIP is beautiful.
Scott Baker (184) - A few more K's than Slowey, but a little higher WHIP.
Clayton Kershaw (173) - May be a year or two early for Kershaw, but the K's should be there immediately.
Ted Lilly (172) - Good K's, decent WHIP, lots of run support.
Manny Parra (237) - Clayton Kershaw Lite.

Relief Pitcher
Heath Bell (157) - Good pitcher finally getting a chance to rack up some saves.
Frank Francisco (193) - I adore the K's.
Joel Hanrahan (192) - Good strikeout rate.

2009 Projected Lineups - National League

Here is my first stab at projecting the lineups in the National League. Here's the American League. Obviously, this is an incredibly difficult and imprecise task. Things will change immensely between now and opening day. Also, I'm not psychic and I don't know what all of these managers are thinking. But this is very important information when you're trying to project runs and RBI. A player is significantly more valuable hitting in the third or fourth spots, than the eighth or ninth spots.

If you see anything that is obviously wrong, please let me know. I'm especially interesting in links to quotes by managers indicating where they intend to put particular players in the lineup like this one.




Notes

• I had the most trouble with the Diamondbacks, Pirates (like it matters much), Cardinals, Padres, and Cubs.
• It looks like Pablo Sandoval will hit third, which makes him even more valuable than I originally thought, considering he'll have catcher eligibility.
• I really hope Votto, Phillips, and Bruce hit 3-4-5. And I think they will.
• The D-Backs lineup will probably change constantly. Upton could hit anywhere from fourth to eighth. If he gets off to a good start, I would expect to see him moved up in the order.
• There's some talk of the Mets going with Castillo-Beltran-Reyes in the 1-2-3 spots. This would probably help Reyes' value and hurt Beltran's. I doubt it will happen, though.
• I went ahead and assumed the Dodgers would sign Manny since no one else seems interested.
• I didn't realize the Giants viewed Fred Lewis as a run-producer, but the combination of hitting fifth in the order plus 30-steal ability makes Lewis a pretty attractive sleeper.
• Placing Bradley between Lee and Ramirez in the Cubs' order is partially wishful thinking on my part. I think it makes a lot of sense, but Piniella may disagree. There's also talk of moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot. I'm not sure where he'd go or who would replace him.