2009 Projected Lineups - American League

Attempt #2.

Please offer any insight so I can make this list as accurate as possible.




Relatively easier ones: Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers.

Relatively harder ones: Mariners, A's, Indians, Blue Jays.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Shortstop

Subject to change. Here's an explanation of FV.




Notes:

• Hanley Ramirez is far and away the top player in fantasy baseball this year. If you have the first pick, you have to take him.
• Notice the considerable drop-off from Rollins to Alexei Ramirez. That's why you should consider taking Rollins ahead of guys like Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Teixeira.
• I'm assuming Andrus and Wood have full-time gigs. For Andrus, I don't think that's a stretch. Minus a Figgins or Aybar trade, Wood probably won't play full-time, so take that projection with a grain of salt.
• Drew and Tulowitzki are very close in value, in my opinion. I lean slightly toward Drew because I think he has a little more power, but I could definitely see the argument for Tulowitzki.
• If you need runs, there's nothing wrong with drafting Jeter or Young since they'll both be hitting second in stacked lineups.
• This position is not deep. If you play in a league that uses a shortstop plus a middle infielder, I would suggest overpaying for a shortstop. If you have a chance to get one of the big three, you have to take it.

2009 Projected Lineups - National League

UPDATED 2-24-09

Please help me make this list as accurate as possible.



Evidence:
Cubs
Pirates
Padres
Astros
Phillies
Reds

Lineup Value

It's important to remember where a player hits in the lineup when it comes to projecting runs and RBI. If you draft a bunch of leadoff hitters, you'll probably win the runs category but finish near the bottom in RBI. Instinctively, we all know that #3 and #4 hitters are valuable, but I've attempted to quantify it here.

Here's the method: I found the average runs scored and RBI for each batting order spot last year. Then, I put those averages into an otherwise average fantasy team - that is, an offense that would finish in the middle of the pack in all fantasy categories. To illustrate, a completely average fantasy player has about 86 runs and 84 RBI (in a 12-team standard Yahoo league). So, if you take a team a team of eight of those guys plus an average leadoff hitter, you would expect to score 794 runs (8x86 plus 106) and have 740 RBI (8x84 plus 68). That makes your team above average in runs and below average in RBI. Then the question becomes: how many additional points could you expect to earn or lose (in a roto league) with this team of eight average players plus a typical leadoff hitter versus a team of nine completely average players? The answer is below in the far right column.



I didn't bother with the number nine spot for two reasons: 1) pitchers in the NL skew the results and 2) you really shouldn't be drafting #9 hitters anyway.

I was expecting #3 hitters to be the most valuable, so this was an interesting result.

You can see who is set to benefit from their spot in the lineup with my projected AL lineups and projected NL lineups.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Mid & Late Rounds

Last week, I presented my "deep" sleepers - guys who could be had at the very end of drafts. Now, I'm listing my mid & late round sleepers. These are guys who are generally being drafted in the 10th through 19th rounds in 12-team leagues. To make this list, a player has to have the potential to move up 100 spots or so from where they're drafted to what they're actually worth at the end of the season. So, if a player is being picked with about the 120th pick (end of the 10th/beginning of the 11th round), he needs to have the potential to be picked in the late 2nd or early 3rd round next year. This is all in my opinion, obviously. I put what number pick each of these players was in my last draft as a point of reference.

Catcher
Pablo Sandoval (143) - Should hit in the middle of the Giants order. May not have catcher eligibility next year so enjoy it while you can.
Chris Iannetta (149) - 20-25 homers, good average.

First Base
Conor Jackson (204) - If 25-homer power ever comes, his high batting average and a few steals will make him very valuable.
Billy Butler (244) - If he hits in the middle of the order, Butler could produce 25 homers, 90 runs, and 100 RBI, while hitting over .300.

Second Base
Rickie Weeks (189) - I made this pick in the 16th round. Not bad for a guy who could easily hit 20 homers and steal 30 bases. Average will always be a concern.
Jose Lopez (180) - Good power from the second base spot. Could stand to run a little more, but oh well.
Ian Stewart (161) - 10 homers in half a season last year; just needs playing time.

Third Base
Edwin Encarnacion (200) - 30-homer power in the 17th round. Incredible.
Alex Gordon (213) - I still believe the talent is there.

Shortstop
Get your shortstop early. I guess Jhonny Peralta (156th pick) deserves a half-mention.

Outfield (Oh, baby)
Nelson Cruz (117) - This was my pick and I may have been overzealous, but the thought of Cruz hitting cleanup in the Rangers' stacked lineup makes me salivate. 30 homers and 110 RBI with a few steals is not out of the question. He's the next Carlos Lee. There, I said it.
Lastings Milledge (138) - Great power/speed combo.
Elijah Dukes (240) - 13 homers and 13 steals in half a season last year.
Justin Upton (196) - He's going to be a stud.
Cameron Maybin (242) - Steals will be there immediately. Power won't be bad, either. Average will be the biggest concern.
Chris Young (167) - Is he going this late in everyone's drafts? Sure, the average is ugly, but he could go 30/30. That's worth something.
Adam Jones (169) - Showed lots of promise last year.

Starting Pitcher (Pitchers went high in this draft)
Zack Greinke (141) - Run support is my only concern. Other than that, he's a stud.
Kevin Slowey (165) - The WHIP is beautiful.
Scott Baker (184) - A few more K's than Slowey, but a little higher WHIP.
Clayton Kershaw (173) - May be a year or two early for Kershaw, but the K's should be there immediately.
Ted Lilly (172) - Good K's, decent WHIP, lots of run support.
Manny Parra (237) - Clayton Kershaw Lite.

Relief Pitcher
Heath Bell (157) - Good pitcher finally getting a chance to rack up some saves.
Frank Francisco (193) - I adore the K's.
Joel Hanrahan (192) - Good strikeout rate.

2009 Projected Lineups - National League

Here is my first stab at projecting the lineups in the National League. Here's the American League. Obviously, this is an incredibly difficult and imprecise task. Things will change immensely between now and opening day. Also, I'm not psychic and I don't know what all of these managers are thinking. But this is very important information when you're trying to project runs and RBI. A player is significantly more valuable hitting in the third or fourth spots, than the eighth or ninth spots.

If you see anything that is obviously wrong, please let me know. I'm especially interesting in links to quotes by managers indicating where they intend to put particular players in the lineup like this one.




Notes

• I had the most trouble with the Diamondbacks, Pirates (like it matters much), Cardinals, Padres, and Cubs.
• It looks like Pablo Sandoval will hit third, which makes him even more valuable than I originally thought, considering he'll have catcher eligibility.
• I really hope Votto, Phillips, and Bruce hit 3-4-5. And I think they will.
• The D-Backs lineup will probably change constantly. Upton could hit anywhere from fourth to eighth. If he gets off to a good start, I would expect to see him moved up in the order.
• There's some talk of the Mets going with Castillo-Beltran-Reyes in the 1-2-3 spots. This would probably help Reyes' value and hurt Beltran's. I doubt it will happen, though.
• I went ahead and assumed the Dodgers would sign Manny since no one else seems interested.
• I didn't realize the Giants viewed Fred Lewis as a run-producer, but the combination of hitting fifth in the order plus 30-steal ability makes Lewis a pretty attractive sleeper.
• Placing Bradley between Lee and Ramirez in the Cubs' order is partially wishful thinking on my part. I think it makes a lot of sense, but Piniella may disagree. There's also talk of moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot. I'm not sure where he'd go or who would replace him.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - End of the Draft

I'm getting tired of writing individual posts for sleepers at each position, so I'm replacing them with just two long posts with less detail. This one consists of players you can probably get in the 20th round or later - or even players you don't need to draft at all because they'll spend some time in the minors. The next one will be mid- to late-round sleepers - guys you'll need to draft in rounds 10-19. Make sense? Here it goes:

Catcher
Taylor Teagarden - Great power, will have to share time with Salty.
J.R. Towles - Historically awful last year; good minor league track record, though.

First Base
Kendry Morales - Should be handed the first base job; could surprise.
Joe Koshansky - Awesome power; just needs playing time.

Second Base
Alexi Casilla - Good speed, with a little pop.
Chris Getz - Should be everyday second baseman; decent speed; possible 10 homers.
Daniel Murphy - If the Mets decide to use him over Castillo, he could put up decent numbers.

Third Base
Mat Gamel - Ryan Braun with fewer steals. Needs playing time.
Dallas McPherson - If he plays full-time, could reach 30 homers and 10 steals.
Andy LaRoche - Awful last year, but has good minor league track record; should be handed the job.

Shortstop
Elvis Andrus - 30 steals will be there immediately.
Brandon Wood - Power is legit; double-digit steals probable; low average; just need playing time.

Outfield
Matt Joyce - Great power, especially against righties; average will be a concern.
Colby Rasmus - Highly regarded prospect; power and speed.
Josh Anderson - Amazing speed.
Matt LaPorta - Great power, will start year in minors.
Fred Lewis - Cheap steals and a little pop.
Ryan Spilborghs - Good average, a little power.

Starting Pitchers
Tommy Hanson - Probably the first fill-in when injury strikes in Atlanta.
J.A. Happ - Good minor league track record; finally has a spot in the rotation.
John Maine - Apparently healthy; still a very solid pitcher.
Brandon Morrow - Should strike out plenty; WHIP could be a problem.
Hiroki Kuroda - Opposite of Morrow - low WHIP, few K's.
Clay Buchholz - I still believe.

Closers (these are guys who aren't closers, but could be before the season is over)
Jose Arredondo - If Fuentes falters, he's next in line and he's good.
Chris Ray - Has closed in the past; Sherrill is nothing special.
Grant Balfour - Love the K's.

2009 Projected Lineups - American League

Here is my first stab at projecting the lineups in the American League (NL to follow soon). Obviously, this is an incredibly difficult and imprecise task. Things will change immensely between now and opening day. Also, I'm not psychic and I don't know what all of these managers are thinking. But this is very important information when you're trying to project runs and RBI. A player is significantly more valuable hitting in the third or fourth spots, than the eighth or ninth spots.

If you see anything that is obviously wrong, please let me know. I'm especially interesting in links to quotes by managers indicating where they intend to put particular players in the lineup.

• I found the most difficult lineups to be: White Sox, Indians, A's, Mariners, and Blue Jays, so I'd really like to hear from anyone who thinks they have a better idea than I do.

Things that stand out (assuming these lineups are correct):

• Markakis may not drive in as many runs as I thought.
• If Hafner can stay healthy, I may be undervaluing him.
• Alex Gordon and Billy Butler in the middle of the order is very attractive.
• The Twins outfield is crowded. I didn't include Denard Span, but it seems hard to believe that the Twins wouldn't find playing time for him. Is Young the odd man out? Or will a Cuddyer injury solve the problem?
• If Nady hits behind Teixeira and A-Rod, he could drive in a ton of runs.
• With Ibanez gone, Lopez and Beltre will probably be counted on even more to drive in runs.
• The Rangers lineup is stacked. Whoever gets to hit fourth behind Hamilton should get RBI aplenty. Keep an eye on who gets that spot. If it's Nelson Cruz, then I like him even more than I thought.
• From what I can tell, the Blue Jays like Rios hitting third. That makes me happy. I was afraid he was going to get stuck hitting leadoff or #2. Third means lots of RBI.
  

Ripping Off Matthew Berry

I just read Matthew Berry's annual Love/Hate column over at ESPN and I decided to be a fucking copycat. Call me unoriginal, call me lazy, but it's a fun and easy way to say who you like and who you don't. Remember, when I say I love or hate a guy, it's relative to their average draft position. By the way, Matthew Berry isn't any better at fantasy sports than I am (as far as I can tell), but he is terribly entertaining and I highly recommend reading his stuff. If you compare our lists, you'll find that I agree just as often as I disagree with him.

Love

Catcher

Matt Wieters - This comes with a caveat: only if you can afford to stash him on your bench for a month and a half. Use Pablo Sandoval during that time and then once Wieters gets the call, trade Sandoval and enjoy top-tier offensive production from the catcher slot. By the way, I've seen Wieters go in the 6th round (not a good deal) and I've seen him go in the 15th round (good deal), so it depends on the mindset of your league-mates.

Chris Iannetta - Expect 20 homers and a good batting average.

Pablo Sandoval - He's going near the very end of most drafts, but should provide 15-20 homers and a decent batting average.

First Base

Joey Votto - The eighth or ninth round? Are you kidding me?

Conor Jackson - Should score and drive in plenty of runs with a good batting average. Homeruns are lacking, but he's just so cheap.

Billy Butler - Loads of potential.


Second Base

Rickie Weeks - I know, I know. But anyone who has 100-run, 20-homer, 30-steal ability is an absolute steal in the 17th round, batting average be damned.

Ian Stewart - 10 homers in half a season last year.

Jose Lopez - 17 homers, 89 RBI, and a .297 average last year. Plus, he's only 25. The only thing not to like is the lack of steals.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre - Great value. Contract year.

Alex Gordon - I still believe.

Mark Reynolds - Love the power, plus ten steals. Batting average is obviously a concern, but in the late rounds, it's worth a chance.

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - The drop-off at shortstop is so steep after Rollins that he's worth a first-round pick.

Elvis Andrus - If anyone is the next Jose Reyes, it's this guy. (For the record, I don't think he's the next Jose Reyes, but that's his upside.)

Alexei Ramirez - Nice power/speed combo.


Outfield
Matt Holliday - Yes, his numbers will take a hit, but Yahoo has him ranked 36th overall. That's too much of a hit in my opinion.

Nelson Cruz - 30 homers, 15 steals, and a decent batting average are well within reach.

Jay Bruce - He showed the superstar potential last year. I expect him to continue to improve this year.

Matt Kemp - I love drafting guys who I can picture being first-rounders the next year. Kemp could easily go 30/30 with a .300 average.

Lastings Milledge - A poor man's Matt Kemp.

Elijah Dukes - I'm not going to say anything about his attitude. All I'm going to say is that Dukes hit 13 homers and stole 13 bases in half a season in 2008 and he's only 24.

Justin Upton - He'll be a first-rounder some day. It could be sooner than we think.

Cameron Maybin - He could pull a Hanley Ramirez and explode in his first full season in the majors.

Jayson Werth - Simply an overlooked player. Good value in the middle rounds.


Starting Pitcher
Javier Vazquez - Love the K rate, love the move to the National League, love the 11th round draft position.

Kevin Slowey - Last year, I almost completely neglected the WHIP category. Not this year!

John Maine - Good comeback candidate can be had for cheap.

Scott Baker - Kevin Slowey with a few more K's and a slightly higher WHIP.

Ted Lilly - High strikeout total and good run support in the 16th round? Yes, please.

Jered Weaver - Good strikeouts, good WHIP, 17th round.

Erik Bedard - He was actually pretty decent last year, despite playing hurt. If healthy (big "if"), he could provide 5th round value in the 15th round.

J.A. Happ - Had a great year at AAA, should be part of the rotation.

Wandy Rodriguez

Hiroki Kuroda

Yovani Gallardo - Like the K's.

Manny Parra

Gil Meche

Max Scherzer - If he's healthy, I love the K's.

Andy Sonnanstine


Relief Pitcher
Carlos Marmol - If you're going to pay a high price for a reliever, Marmol is your man. Love the K's.

Frank Francisco - Tons of K's. Had damn well better be given the closer job.

Chad Qualls - Cheap saves.

Heath Bell - Cheap saves.

Joel Hanrahan - Cheap saves.

Joey Devine - May have to share the closer role with Brad Ziegler, but Devine is really good.

Matt Lindstrom - Cheap saves.





Hate

Catcher
Jorge Posada - He's old.

Bengie Molina - He's getting old.

Dioner Navarro - He's young but overrated. Yes, he was an All-Star, but look at his numbers.


First Base
Justin Morneau - He's good, but just not 2nd or 3rd round good. The batting average swings wildly year to year.

Paul Konerko - He's done.

Adam Dunn - The batting average is just too tough to take.


Second Base
Howie Kendrick - Should hit for a decent average and chip in a few steals, but the complete lack of power turns me off.

Placido Polanco - A good batting average only gets you so far.

Akinori Iwamura - Only contributes in runs.


Third Base
Evan Longoria - Yes, this is coming from the guy who absolutely adored Longoria last year. But the early second round draft position is just too much for a guy who doesn't steal a ton of bases and won't hit for a very high average. I'll draft him next year in the third round, thank you very much.

Kevin Youkilis

Aubrey Huff - Regression.


Shortstop
Michael Young - Getting old.

Mike Aviles - I'm not buying it.

Orlando Cabrera - Getting old.


Outfield
B.J. Upton - In theory, I love Upton. But when he's being drafted 12th or 13th overall, I have to pass. I believe the power will improve, but it is a question mark. So is the batting average. So is the health. Too many question marks to justify such a high draft position.

Manny Ramirez - He'll get a two-year deal which means he'll have no motivation this year. Plus, he's getting old.

Carlos Quentin - I do believe Quentin is good. Just not second round good.

Ichiro Suzuki - He gets drafted for his steal and batting average. Did you know he only hit .310 last year? Yes, .310 is good, but it's not that good.

Ryan Ludwick - I'm not buying it.

Vernon Wells - Face it, his glory days are behind him.

Shane Victorino - Fourth round? Really?

Hideki Matsui

Rick Ankiel


Starting Pitcher
John Lackey

Roy Oswalt

Jon Lester - Too few K's for my taste. Yes, he's good, but not ace-of-my-fantasy staff good.

Carlos Zambrano - Striking out fewer and fewer.

Gavin Floyd

Fausto Carmona

Chien-Ming Wang

Adam Wainwright

Josh Johnson

Edinson Volquez - I like Volquez's K's, but the WHIP is ugly.

Cliff Lee - Expect some regression.

Felix Hernandez - There's still a chance he's the next big thing, but I'm getting impatient.

Chris Young

Francisco Liriano - I really like Liriano but he's just too expensive for me this year.

Aaron Harang


Relief Pitcher
Francisco Rodriguez - His strikeouts are declining and he's an injury waiting to happen.

Bobby Jenks - Where did all the strikeouts go?

B.J. Ryan

Joakim Soria - Good, but overrated.

Jonathan Papelbon - He's the best, but you'll have to overpay to get him.

Joe Nathan - He's the second-best, but you'll have to overpay to get him.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Third Base

Third base rankings. As always, subject to change. Here's an explanation of FV. Enjoy.




Notes:

• I was in love with Longoria last year, but the hype has become too much. He's a great player with huge upside, but the batting average will be a drag on his value.
• Guys with upside: Davis, Encarnacion, Gordon, Kouzmanoff.
• McPherson might hit 40 homers. Probably not, but it's possible. He also might hit below .200. If you're in a deep league, he's definitely worth a late-round flyer, though.
• Conspicuously absent: Casey Blake. He ranks 32nd. I think he sucks. There, I said it.
• Remember the last time Beltre was in a contract year? He probably won't hit 48 homers this year, but don't be surprised if he steps up his performance a little. Plus, he's been very consistent the past three years. I fully endorse drafting Beltre in the middle rounds and penciling in 25 homers, 90 RBI and 10 steals. Not bad.
• I'm still bullish on Gordon. Am I crazy?