Evaluating My Team - Team #3

I had my first draft in an ESPN league a couple days ago. It is a 10-team, standard 5x5 roto league with all the normal positions plus a MI and a CI spot, plus two extra outfielders. I had the ninth overall pick. Here's who I drafted and the round in which I took them:

Hitters
C - Geovany Soto (17th round) - Love the upside in this young catcher.
1B - Mark Teixeira (4th round) - I felt fortunate that the slugger fell to the 32nd overall pick.
2B - Brandon Phillips (3rd round) - I was praying for either Phillips or B.J. Upton. Someone took Upton right in front of me, so that made the decision easy.
3B - Ryan Braun (2nd round) - I'm in the camp that is bullish on Braun.
SS - Rafael Furcal (5th round) - I wasn't crazy about this pick at the time but, in retrospect, Furcal fits in well with the rest of this team.
MI - Ian Kinsler (8th round) - Maybe I should have waited and filled this spot with Kelly Johnson, but I just love Kinsler so much.
CI - Edwin Encarnacion (16th round) - I love the upside for Encarnacion.
OF - Matt Holliday (1st round) - I enjoyed grabbing Holliday with the ninth pick.
OF - Corey Hart (6th round) - Love this guy. He'll be on almost every one of my teams.
OF - Matt Kemp (7th round) - Maybe a little early for Kemp, but I didn't want to miss out on him.
OF - Chris Young (10th round) - Can you believe I got him with the 92nd overall pick?
OF - Jeremy Hermida (19th round) - The favorite to hit third in the Marlins order and, thus, drive Hanley Ramirez in many, many times.
Util - Joey Votto (21st round) - Power and speed.
Bench - Evan Longoria (22nd round) - Even if he starts the year in the minors, I'm willing to wait it out.
Bench - Justin Upton (24th round) - My bench has a lot of upside.

Pitchers
SP - Yovani Gallardo (9th round) - Looking back, I probably should have taken a pitcher who won't start the year on the DL.
SP - Felix Hernandez (11th round) - Let's hope he starts to turn some of that potential into actual ace production.
SP - Rich Hill (12th round) - The man-love continues.
SP - Francisco Liriano (13th round) - If healthy, he'll be dominant.
SP - Dustin McGowan (15th round) - If he was in the NL, I'd be pimping McGowan like crazy.
SP - Clay Buchholz (20th round) - Early word out of camp is that he has been very impressive. I'm excited.
RP - Rafael Soriano (14th round) - Saves, with room for Soriano to emerge as one of the top closers in the game.
RP - Kevin Gregg (18th round) - Saves.
RP - George Sherrill (23rd round) - Saves with some upside.
RP - Troy Percival (25th round) - Saves. (Maybe.)

Bottom Line
It's not a question of whether my lineup is good or not. The only question is whether I'm going to win every category. At this point, I think I stand an excellent chance of doing just that. My pitching, on the other hand...well, there are some big question marks there. If Gallardo isn't out too long, if Liriano returns to form, if King Felix finally lives up to his nickname, and if Buchholz performs like I think he will, my rotation will be incredible. But that's a lot of "ifs." Overall, though, I feel fairly confident that I'll win this league.

Targets #1-100

Some may argue against targeting players because it causes you to focus too much on certain players at the risk of ignoring better players who have slipped in the draft. And I agree to a certain extent. It's fine to have targets, but you shouldn't get overly focused on them. But it's certainly worthwhile to have some players who you think have some upside, because - let's face it - the only way you win a league is by having some players break out.

So, I've put together a list of players you should think about targeting, but I want to stress that you shouldn't get carried away. Just because Matt Kemp is one of your targets, that doesn't mean you should draft him ahead of Bobby Abreu. Be reasonable.



Picks 1-10

The Big Three Shortstops - I've heard a few "experts" say that the shortstop position is deep this year. Here's my take: there are plenty of decent fantasy options at shortstop, but there is a huge gap between Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins and everyone else. Add in the fact that all three of them will give you a bunch of steals and these guys are incredibly valuable relative to their peers. A-Rod is the only one who should be taken ahead of Ramirez and Reyes; and don't be afraid to reach a little for Rollins.

Johan Santana - He is going to be one dominant mofo pitching in the NL for a team that scores runs. If he stays healthy, I predict he'll be the #1 player in fantasy baseball this season. The only thing that keeps him from being drafted as such is the inherent risk involved in taking a pitcher.




Picks 11-20

Ryan Braun - The subject of fierce debate in the fantasy community, Braun is an intriguing player. If he keeps up the pace he was on last year, he'll easily be the best player in fantasy baseball. However, that's extremely unlikely since lefties are bound to be much more careful with him this year (he had a 1.480 OPS against them in 2007) and his BABIP was far too high to justify his .324 batting average. Even still, it's not unreasonable to expect 100 runs, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 15 steals, and a .295 batting average - with room to the upside.

Grady Sizemore - I only have him ranked 15th overall, but the reason you should seriously consider targeting him is his upside (this will be a recurring theme). He's going to score a ton of runs and has a very legitimate shot at a 30/30 season. Remember, he's only 25.




Picks 21-30

B.J. Upton - Talk about upside. At only 23 years old, Upton is primed for a good ten years of fantasy domination. Last year, he hit 24 homers, stole 22 bases, scored 86 runs and drove in 82 - all in only 129 games. His BABIP indicates that Upton's in line for a huge fall in batting average from the .300 mark he posted last season, but everyone has their flaws. Scheduled to bat in the heart of the Tampa order, Upton could very easily approach triple digits in both runs and RBI. Don't be afraid to reach for him if you need to.



Picks 31-40

No one really jumps out at me. Just grab what you need at this point.



Picks 41-50

C.C. Sabathia - It feels like Sabathia has been around forever, but he's only 27. His 2007 K/BB ratio of 5.6 was the best of his career led all major league starters. Plus, he's playing for a contract this season. Draft the big guy and enjoy a bunch of wins and 200 strikeouts.



Picks 51-60

Chris B. Young - Yes, the batting average is ugly, but the kid hit 32 homers and stole 27 bases as a 23-year-old. Based on BABIP numbers, you should expect the batting average to be higher this year and the HR and SB numbers could be, too.

Ian Kinsler - If it turns out that I’m not fertile, I may artificially inseminate my wife with Kinsler’s seed. That’s how much I love this guy.

Corey Hart - One of the few guys out there who will provide a positive contribution above average in all five standard roto categories. Plus, his name sounds like an '80s teen heart-throb who you would expect to see on the cover of Tiger Beat magazine.


Picks 61-70

Adrian Gonzalez - If he played in Coors Field, Gonzalez would be a second- or third-rounder. Unfortunately, he plays in the toughest park for hitters in the majors. Even still, he'll overcome that and be a big run producer. It feels like he's been around for a while but he's only 25.



Picks 71-80

Again, no one really stands out here. I like Ryan Zimmerman, so he deserves a half-mention.



Picks 81-90

Daisuke Matsuzaka - The case for Daisuke is simple: High K/9 rate (8.8) and good run support. Some might say that more hitters will have figured him out by now. I have the opposite theory: he'll have figured out more hitters by now. He'll be more comfortable and I think that will show up in a decrease from his 2007 walk rate (3.5), which was far too high for a man of his talents.


Picks 91-100

Delmon Young - Some people may be looking at Young as a bust already, but that's unfair. Considering he was only 21 when he posted a .288 batting average, 13 homers, and 10 steals, there is a ton of room for upside from there. We're going to see one of two things happen with him: 1) he'll improve on his numbers every year for the next three or four years or 2) he'll take a huge step forward in one year and continue to play at that level. The possibility of the latter happening this year makes Young an exciting pick with huge upside.

Jeff Francoeur - He's still very young (24) and stands a great chance of taking his power to another level at some point in the near future. His drop in homers from 29 to 19 last year doesn't worry me too much because his slugging average stayed about the same and his walk rate increased nicely. The increased walk rate is a sign that Francoeur is maturing as a hitter which will manifest itself in the form of a 35-homer season at some point.

Scott Kazmir feels "discomfort"

According to ESPN, Kazmir will undergo an MRI to see if there's anything wrong with his elbow or if it's just sore. The fact that they're not just icing it suggests that this is more than just early spring soreness. If you're drafting in the next couple days, I wouldn't completely avoid Kazmir, but I would temporarily drop him down in your rankings until we hear more.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers Countdown - #11-20

Here's the next installment of my 2008 MLB sleepers countdown. My qualification for calling someone a sleeper was simple: anyone who is being drafted after the 200th pick, on average. I used Fantasy Gameday's Average Draft Position (ADP) report for data on players' ADP. This list is more or less in order of how excited I am about these guys. For #21-30, see this post.

20. Jon Lester (ADP: 262) – He’s not as overpowering as Buchholz, but he gets the job done.

19. Matt Diaz (ADP: 369) - .338/.368/.497 last year. In 774 major league at-bats, Diaz has hit .320. That’s impressive.

18. George Sherrill (ADP: N/A) – Give him a chance, Baltimore. You won’t be disappointed.

17. Aaron Hill (ADP: 265) – The Upside is a young Jeff Kent.

16. Adam Jones (ADP: 336) – He’ll struggle at times, but I could see 20 homers and 15 steals.

15. Andrew Miller (ADP: 295) – Love the K’s and the move to the NL.

14. Jay Bruce (ADP: 348) – The only reason he’s this far down on the list is because his playing time is even more in question than that of Longoria. Once he does play, he’ll give you power and speed.

13. Felix Pie (ADP: 363) – This kid is being overlooked. He could easily go for 15 homers and 25 steals.

12. Ian Kennedy (ADP: 338) – He’s not going to blow anyone away, but he’ll be solid and he’ll collect a few K’s (though not a ton).

11. Matt Garza (ADP: 241) – I’m a sucker for young pitchers.

Evaluating My Team - Team #2

I had my second draft this weekend and I thought I should post the results so you can see that I practice what I preach. This is a standard 5x5, 12-team, roto league. I had the first overall pick. Here's my team (along with which round I took them in):

Hitters
C - Russell Martin (4th round) - I actually drafted Eric Byrnes in the fourth round but traded him for Martin immediately after the draft. I am pleased with that trade.
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (7th round) - I already had Berkman, but I just couldn't pass on Gonzalez, so I moved Berkman to the outfield.
2B - Brandon Phillips (2nd round) - I came so close to taking B.J. Upton, but I have Phillips ranked higher and I figured I'd draft Upton on other teams.
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round) - For a minute I thought about taking Hanley Ramirez. But A-Rod is just too much of a sure-thing that I felt compelled to take him.
SS - Michael Young (8th round) - I needed some batting average help.
OF - Lance Berkman (3rd round) - He's good.
OF - Corey Hart (5th round) - The 49th overall pick might be early, but I wanted him and I knew he probably wouldn't be there for my next pick (72nd overall).
OF - Matt Kemp (10th round) - Love the upside.
Util - Justin Upton (15th round) - If he struggles, I have a strong bench that I can use.
Bench - Josh Fields (17th round) - I'm not as high on Fields as some people, but he should provide plenty of power.
Bench - Ryan Garko (19th round) - Good power.
Bench - Joey Votto (20th round) - Love the power/speed combo.

Pitchers
SP - John Smoltz (6th round) - I'm not big on taking old pitchers, but Smoltz is pretty good for an old guy.
SP - Javier Vazquez (9th round) - I thought I could wait until this pick to grab Daisuke Matsuzaka. I was wrong and Vazquez was my consolation prize.
SP - Rich Hill (11th round) - Man-love for Hill.
SP - John Maine (12th round) - Love this guy.
SP - Clay Buchholz (14th round) - I was really hoping to get either Oliver Perez or Jeremy Bonderman with this pick. No such luck, but Buchholz could be very good.
SP - Ian Kennedy (21st round) - Could get a bunch of wins.
RP - Matt Capps (13th round) - Saves.
RP - Kevin Gregg (15th round) - Saves.
RP - Brandon Lyon (18th round) - Saves.

Bottom Line
I love my lineup. I should dominate in runs, homers, and RBI, and be very competitive in steals and batting average. My rotation is very questionable, though. I like Hill and Maine, but I worry a little about Smoltz and Vazquez. And, obviously, Buchholz and Kennedy are big question marks. I may need to trade a hitter for a more dependable pitcher at some point.

Fantasy "Experts"

As far as I can tell, most of the fantasy "experts" out there don't know much more than you or I. Matthew Berry over at ESPN is pretty entertaining, but that only goes so far. The best expert I've found is Andy Behrens over at Yahoo. He applies a systematic approach to drafting (like I do) and understands the value of young players over aging, declining veterans (like I do). So, if you're going to listen to anyone's advice (other than mine, of course), I would recommend Behrens. Take a look at his third base and catcher rankings compared to his colleagues and you'll see why I like him. Notice where he ranks Longoria, Encarnacion, Reynolds, and LaRoche among third basemen and Soto and Towles among catchers. This guy knows what he's doing - almost as much as I do. If only he had the same infatuation with Ian Kinsler as I do...

Draft Strategy - Lesson 5: Saves

Don't spend high draft picks or large dollar amounts on closers. I could leave it at that, but a little more explanation might be helpful.

Basically, the reason is this: the replacement level for closers is much higher than at all other positions, because most of their value lies in the fact that they accumulate saves.

Let's look at an example. Here are two stat lines:

B.J. Ryan (2006) - 72 1/3 IP, 2 wins, 86 K, 1.37 WHIP, 0.86 WHIP, 38 saves
Jeremy Accardo (2007) - 67 1/3 IP, 4 wins, 57 K, 2.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30 saves

Clearly, you'd rather have a healthy Ryan, but because they're only pitching about 70 innings, the value of the lower ERA and WHIP isn't nearly as meaningful as it appears. The 29-strikeout differential is no fun, but here's why Accardo isn't that much less valuable that Ryan: with the sixth-round pick you spent on Ryan last year, you probably could have had Prince Fielder, whereas, you didn't need to draft Accardo at all. He only cost you the worst player on your team when you picked him up on the waiver wire.

The point is, players like Accardo, Kevin Gregg, and Manny Corpas are going to appear every year. They're cheap (almost free, in fact), they get you what you're really looking for in a closer (saves), and they're not that much worse than the elite closers (when you factor in low innings totals).

The trick is, you have to be fast on the waiver wire. As soon as you here about a change in closers, rush to the waiver wire and grab the replacement.

Here are ten closer situations to keep an eye on this year:
Baltimore: Sherrill has to be the favorite, but you never know.
Cleveland: Betancourt is a better pitcher than Borowski.
Tampa Bay: Can they really trust Percival for an entire season?
Texas: Wilson, Guardado, Benoit. All three may get an opportunity.
Toronto: Is Ryan fully recovered?
Arizona: Lyon gets the first shot, but Pena and Qualls are better pitchers.
Cubs: Howry, Marmol, or Wood? Who knows?
Dodgers: Saito's good, but if he gets hurt, Broxton would be one of the best.
Milwaukee: Gagne could be great or terrible and Turnbow isn't bad.
San Diego: Hoffman is old and Bell is good. Just sayin'.

One last point:
If it's late in the draft and you only have one closer and there aren't any others available, don't worry. Chances are you're set at every other position by that time. So, take a middle reliever. Grab Jonathan Broxton or Heath Bell - someone who will help your ERA and WHIP and just might get a chance to close at some point.

First Rounders, Attempt #2

Back at the beginning of January, I took a stab at what I thought the first round of a twelve-team draft should look like. After generating rankings using my projections, here's what I'm thinking at this point:

1. Alex Rodriguez - No brainer.
2. Hanley Ramirez - He worries me a little. But he's good. Real good.
3. Jose Reyes - The steals are just too valuable.
4. David Wright - Love the five-category contribution.
5. Johan Santana - He's going to be dominant in the NL.
6. Matt Holliday - Stud.
7. Jimmy Rollins - The drop-off in SS after J-Roll forces me to rank him this high.
8. Albert Pujols - His injury concerns really worry me. Otherwise, #4.
9. Ryan Braun - I believe.
10. Miguel Cabrera - He'll have a ton of RBI.
11. Chase Utley - Second base just isn't that shallow this year.
12. Prince Fielder - By a nose over Ryan Howard.

One thing I want to stress is this: the first round isn't going to win or lose your league for you. Leagues are won or lost in rounds 8-15, in my opinion. But the first round is important in that it dictates how the rest of your draft will go. For example. if you take Jimmy Rollins in the first round, you immediately know two things: 1) you don't need to take another shortstop and 2) you're ahead of the game in steals.

Another thing that needs to be said: look at where a player like Ryan Braun ranks on the draft platform that you're using. For example, he ranks 14th in the Yahoo game. Let's say you have the 11th pick in a twelve-team snake draft, which means you'll also have the 14th pick. Ryan Braun and Chase Utley are both still available. Who do you take? Chase Utley, of course. Why? Because you have to assume that the guy with the 12th pick will take him if you don't, whereas he may pass on Braun since he's ranked 14th. So, take Utley, hope the other guy doesn't take Braun, and grab him with the 14th overall pick. If the other guy takes him - oh well - grab Fielder or Howard and take comfort in knowing that third base is very deep.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers Countdown - #21-30

People just love sleepers. So, I'm going to post a countdown of the Top 30 MLB sleepers for 2008. My qualification for calling someone a sleeper was simple: anyone who is being drafted after the 200th pick, on average. I used Fantasy Gameday's Average Draft Position (ADP) report for data on players' ADP. This list is more or less in order of how excited I am about these guys.

30. Chuck James (ADP: 353) – He was a big-time strikeout pitcher in his minor league days. It’s possible he could start to do more of that in the majors.

29. Zack Greinke (ADP: 234) – Emotional problems aside, Greinke really is a good pitcher.

28. Mark Prior (ADP: 365) – Banging San Diego girls will keep him happy and productive. Not right away, though. You'll have to wait a month or two before he pitches.

27. Colby Rasmus (ADP: 346) – He’s a power/speed threat, but he is very young and I can’t see him hitting over .270 right now.

26. Mike Jacobs (ADP: 338) – If he can stay healthy, I have no doubt that Jacobs can hit 25-30 homers (albeit with a low batting average).

25. Boof Bonser (ADP: 382) – The name alone is great, but I think we’ll see Boof’s strikeout numbers jump which will lead to a lower ERA and more wins.

24. Nationals’ Outfield (ADP: 297-306) – This is cheating, I know, but Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, and Wily Mo Pena all have breakout potential and they’re being drafted very close to one another. If I had to bet on one, it would probably be Milledge.

23. Felipe Lopez (ADP: 234) - Nothing wrong with 10 homers and 25 steals. He could be a great value late in the draft if you need a middle infielder.

22. Franklin Gutierrez (ADP: 390) – This young man hit 13 homers and stole 8 bases in only 271 at-bats in 2007. If he can double his playing time, you could see 25 homers and 15 steals.

21. Cameron Maybin (ADP: 319) – He’s going to strike out a lot. But he could give you a bunch of steals and a few homers.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Duds

I’ve talked a lot about the players that I think you should draft. But, I think it’s about time I listed some “duds.” Just because a player appears on this list, it doesn’t mean that you should avoid him like a hooker with a cold sore. It just means you should only draft him if he falls way below his typical draft position. Or, in hooker terms, don’t pay more than a dollar for that cold-sored hooker. Five, if she has a southern accent. Anyway, these guys represent bad value at the spots they’re currently being drafted. Here they are, your 2008 fantasy baseball duds:

Ichiro Suzuki – Batting average is just so variable. He could hit anywhere between .290 and .360. In the second round, I’d rather have more of a sure thing.

Justin Morneau – A 50-point drop in batting average and a 67-point drop in slugging average worry me. Plus, he’s Canadian. Eww.

Manny Ramirez – A 126-point drop in slugging? Maybe he should spend a little less time admiring his homers and a little more time getting back to the pre-2007 Manny.

Gary Sheffield – He’s old.

Roy Oswalt – His K/9 rate has decreased each of the last three seasons and he posted a career-high 2.6 BB/9 rate last year.

Carlos Zambrano – The decline in K/9 rate worries me. Plus, he’s a crazy mofo and not in a good way.

Fausto Carmona & Chien-Ming Wang – It’s possible that they’ll win a bunch of games and post low ERAs, but the lack of strikeouts prevents them from being elite fantasy pitchers.

Paul Konerko – There are plenty of first basemen with more upside than Konerko. He’s not getting any better.

Dan Uggla – He could hit 31 homers again. But probably not.

Edgar Renteria – PECOTA hates Renteria. I think he could put up some decent numbers in that Detroit offense, but I’m not overly optimistic.

Brad Penny – He got luckier last year than when he was banging Alyssa Milano.

Aaron Rowand – The sad thing is, he’s the best position player on that team.

Dontrelle Willis – A 5.17 ERA in the NL? And now he’s heading to the big boys’ league? Willis may win a bunch of games, but he’s going to give up a ton of runs in the process.

Carlos Delgado – Remember when he was an elite fantasy first baseman? Yeah…those days are gone.

Gary Matthews, Jr. – First of all, his playing time could be limited. Second, he sucks.

Value Hunting in the ESPN Rankings - Hitters

I already took a look at the Yahoo! rankings to find some good values. Now, let's turn our attention to the ESPN rankings. My impression is that most ESPN leagues consist of ten teams, so I'll go on that assumption when suggesting in which round to target players. Here are the hitters who stand out as good values with their Fantasy Baseball Strategist ranking and their ESPN ranking:

Prince Fielder (FBS: 13; ESPN: 19) - This may be nit-picking, but it's worth mentioning. If you can get Fielder mid-to-late second round, you should feel fortunate.

Russell Martin (FBS: 21; ESPN: 56) - My #21 ranking is too high, by the way. It's based purely on projected stats and adjustments for position scarcity. Don't draft him that high. But #56? Target Martin in the fifth round for a great value.

Corey Hart (FBS: 33; ESPN: 73) - Even after ESPN's own Matthew Berry raved about Hart, they still only managed to rank him 73rd. Lucky us. Grab him in the sixth round.

Chris Young (FBS: 49; ESPN: 94) - Dear Baby Jesus: Please let Chris Young fall to the ninth round. That is all. Thank you.

Andruw Jones (FBS: 86; ESPN: 137) - I don't understand how they can have him projected to hit 40 homers and drive in 123 runs, but be ranked 137th, 14 spots behind Mike Lowell. You'll probably need to grab him in the 11th or 12th round since most people won't be as dumb as whoever placed him in that spot.

Jeremy Hermida (FBS: 98; ESPN: 206) - Sorry to bother you again, Baby Jesus. Just one more thing. Hermida in the 17th or 18th round. OK, that is all. Good luck with the whole savior thing.

Kelly Johnson (FBS: 118; ESPN: 233) - If you think no one else noticed that Johnson is ranked way too low, you may be able to wait until the last round, but I wouldn't take my chances. I'd grab him in the 18th or 19th round.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Relief Pitchers

I believe in the philosophy that you don't spend high picks on relief pitchers because they tend to get hurt often and their replacements aren't that much below them, in terms of fantasy value. They still get saves, after all. You just have be quick on the trigger when you hear about a closer getting hurt. So, the true "sleepers" at this position are the guys who aren't yet closers. For an idea of who's in line to grab the closer's role if the main guy goes down, check out Closer Watch.

Sleepers
1. George Sherrill - I just don't see who else those crazy Orioles could think about using at closer. I love Sherrill's K rate.

2. Brian Wilson - The Giants are going to suck big ol' Bay-Area balls. But Wilson won't. He's very anti-ball-sucking. That's probably something you didn't know about him. Draft Wilson with the expectation that he won't get a ton of opportunities, but he'll take advantage of those he does get.

3. C.J. Wilson - Good K/9 rate, but he's really nothing to get all that excited about. But if the Rangers keep tossing him out there in the ninth, he'll get saves and that's good enough to mention him here.

Semi-Sleeper
Rafael Soriano - I care a great deal for Soriano's K rate. I have him ranked as the seventh-best closer in baseball, right after Joe Nathan.

Deep Sleeper
Brandon Morrow - There's some question as to whether the M's will continue to use him in the bullpen or turn him into a starter. With the acquisition of Erik Bedard, you have to lean toward Morrow staying in the bullpen. Obviously, J.J. Putz is a stud. But if he goes down, Morrow is an overpowering pitcher who could thrive in the closer's role. He just needs to cut down on the walks (50 in 63 1/3 innings).

Evaluating My Team - Team #1

I had my first draft this weekend and I thought I should post the results so you can see that I practice what I preach. This is a standard 5x5, 12-team, roto league. I had the fourth overall pick. Here's my team (along with which round I took them in):

Hitters
C - Victor Martinez (3rd round) - I feel a little strange taking a catcher this early, but he is the best and it makes for a more complete team.
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (7th round) - I missed out on the big sluggers, but felt pretty fortunate to snag Gonzalez in the 7th round.
2B - Ian Kinsler (4th round) - Too early? Maybe. But I love this guy and wanted to make sure I got him.
3B - David Wright (1st round) - I actually have Johan Santana ranked one spot ahead of Wright, but I have trouble pulling the trigger on a pitcher that early.
SS - Stephen Drew (18th round) - After I missed out on the top tier, I just wasn't in any kind of hurry to draft a shortstop, so I waited and grabbed Drew late.
OF - Chris Young (5th round) - Love the upside.
OF - Nick Markakis (6th round) - Love the upside.
OF - Matt Kemp (9th round) - Love the upside.
Util - Jeremy Hermida (14th round) - He was a steal at this point and I needed some run production.
Bench - Michael Bourn (20th round) - In case I need steals.
Bench - Joey Votto (17th round) - Power and speed at first base.
Bench - Mark Reynolds (21st round) - Shows you just how deep third base is this year.

Pitchers
SP - Jake Peavy (2nd round) - I thought real hard about Vlad at this point, but I just couldn't pass up the second-best pitcher in baseball.
SP - Tim Lincecum (8th round) - I love this guy more than is healthy. I know he won't win games, but I don't care. He's awesome.
SP - Rich Hill (10th round) - The man-crush continues.
SP - Francisco Liriano (11th round) - High-risk, high-reward. Looking back, I wish I had gone with a little more of a sure-thing (Gallardo and Maine were still available), but the upside was just too tempting.
SP - Clay Buchholz (15th round) - My pitching staff could be absolutely incredible or a complete flop. Again, I think I may have taken on a little too much risk.
SP - Matt Garza (16th round) - I plan on sitting him against the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Indians.
RP - Joakim Soria (12th round) - I hate taking closers, but it has to be done. Soria will rack up some K's too.
RP - Joe Borowski (13th round) - The sole purpose of this pick was to get saves. Obviously. Borowski sucks.
RP - George Sherrill (19th round) - He'll be a good value for the 19th round.

Bottom Line
I think my lineup is deep and well-balanced. My only weak position is shortstop, although Drew has considerable upside. My pitching staff is way too risky. There's nothing wrong with drafting Liriano, Buchholz, or Garza; but all three of them? I think that's the only thing I'd change if I could do the draft over again.

Let me know what you think.

A Note on Rookies

With some leagues drafting as early as this weekend, I thought I should clarify something about my rankings, specifically concerning rookies. You'll notice that I rank players like Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce pretty high. Those rankings are based on the assumption that they will have a starting job in the majors on Opening Day.

At this point (mid-February) it's very difficult to say how accurate that assumption is. So, I would be very careful about taking rookies this far before the season starts. Late in the draft, I think it's absolutely worth the risk. How often do you hold onto your last couple picks for the entire year, anyway?

Near the end of March, if it looks like Longoria and Bruce will start the year in the majors, I would have no problem taking either of them as early as the eleventh or twelfth round. But, for now, you should focus on more sure-things that early and save the speculative picks for the end of the draft.

2008 Fantasy Sleepers - Starting Pitchers

I'm a big fan of loading up on pitchers like Chad Billingsley, John Maine, Rich Hill, and Jeremy Bonderman in rounds 9-15 of a twelve-team league. But there are always going to be some pitchers taken after that who will contribute. We call them sleepers. Here they are - your 2008 MLB Sleepers who qualify at starting pitcher (in order of sleeperishness):


Sleepers
1. Andrew Miller - He wasn't great last year (5.63 ERA in 13 starts), but the K/9 rate (7.9) was somewhat promising. Add to that a switch to AAAA (the National League) and you've got yourself a sleeper. You may want to bench him when he faces the Mets, Phillies, and possibly the Braves, but this kid is going to dominate the Pirates, Nationals, Astros, Reds, and Giants of the world. I also don't think the Marlins lineup is going to be as pathetic as everyone else seems to think.

2. Matt Garza - I can see it now: Garza is going to be terrible against the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Tigers, but Cy-Young-worthy against all other teams. He was a big-time strikeout pitcher in the minors and started to show some of that skill last season (7.3 K/9) rate. I think he's going to bump that above 8.0 this year as his comfort level continues to improve. And keep in mind that the Rays' lineup has no problem scoring, so run support shouldn't be an issue.

3. Randy Wolf - He missed the last half of 2007 due to a torn labrum, but there are two big things that the Wolfman has going for him: 8.2 K/9 rate and a move to Petco Park. Based on those two things alone, Wolf is worth a late-round pick.

4. Ian Kennedy - His minor league track record indicates that Kennedy is a strikeout pitcher. I'm not completely convinced, as he's small (5' 11") and doesn't have a dominating out-pitch like Tim Lincecum's curve, but I think he'll manage something in the neighborhood of 8.0 K/9. With Joba Chamberlain starting the year in the bullpen, Kennedy appears to have a spot in the rotation. The Yankees score runs, by the way.

5. Edinson Volquez - He has control issues, but in 51 AAA innings last year, Volquez struck out 66 batters. He wasn't quite as good in a six-start major league trial (7.7 K/9), but a move to the NL Central should help. The walk- and homer-rates worry me a little, but hey, he's a sleeper. It's not like you're going to spend an eighth-round pick on him.



Semi-Sleepers
1. Oliver Perez - 1) High strikeout rate, 2) Good run support, 3) Improving walk and homer rates, 4) Going around the 180th pick in a lot of drafts. Love it.

2. Jeremy Bonderman - Anyone who reads this blog regularly is going to start thinking that I have a thing for freckly guys with funny noses. I just think he's a better pitcher than his draft status would indicate. (I like freckly girls with funny noses, by the way.)


Deep Sleepers
1. Manny Parra - Good strikeouts, decent control, low homerun rate. I promise to alert you when he gets called up mid-season, so that you can participate in his Yovanni-Gallardo-esque contribution.

2. Gio Gonzalez - My guess is that the A's would prefer to let Gonzalez spend the year at AAA since they're in no rush to start his arbitration clock. But, if injuries force their hand, you could see Gonzalez racking up K's at a stadium near you.

Looking at Position Strength/Scarcity

Below you'll see a chart that I have created. It shows the Fantasy Value Above Replacement Player (FVARP) for the 1st- through 15th-ranked player at each position. (For outfielders I used every third player, since you typically use three outfielders on a fantasy team.) Look at the chart and soak it in.




OK, ready to discuss?

Obviously, what we're looking for is significant drop-offs. For example, you can see that after the third-ranked shortstop (Jimmy Rollins at 15.9 FVARP), there is a significant drop-off of 8.1 to the fourth-ranked shortstop (Derek Jeter at 7.8 FVARP). What does this tell us? It tells us that if we want a top-notch shortstop, we need grab one of the first three.

A similar phenomenon occurs at third base where the fourth-ranked third baseman (Miguel Cabrera) is significantly more valuable than the fifth-ranked third baseman (Ryan Zimmerman).

There may not be a whole lot of value in this, since we basically know already that if we miss out on the top three shortstops, we shouldn't be in any hurry to grab the fourth-best shortstop. However, I think it's a good reminder of which positions have a deeper talent pool (first and third base) and where that talent pool levels off. For example, the difference between the fourth-ranked shortstop (Jeter) and the eighth-ranked (Rafael Furcal) is only 1.9, meaning that you can take some other players during that time, wait for Furcal and only miss out on a little bit of value at shortstop.

I think this type of analysis lends itself to putting players into tiers. I don't do much tiering but if that's what gets you excited, knock yourself out.

Draft Strategy - Lesson 4: Marginal Value

In one of my rotisserie leagues last year, my first three picks were: David Wright, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez. Pretty good, right? Well, the problem was that I drafted 135 steals with my first three picks. That's ok, actually. It just meant that I was set when it came to stolen bases. But what did proceed to do? I drafted Alex Rios, Ian Kinsler, and Dave Roberts.

Once I got to 135 projected steals, the value of each additional stolen base decreased significantly. Maybe the next 15-20 were worth something because they pushed me from 2nd or 3rd place in that category to 1st place. But everything after that was just a waste.

I ended up winning the category by 36 steals and feeling pretty freakin' stupid that I won by that much in steals while finishing second in strikeouts by only 4! Substitute some steals that I drafted with some strikeouts and I could have had another point.

The lesson is that you need to be aware of where your team stands in each category at any point in the draft. If you think you already have enough homers and RBI to finish second in those categories, but only enough steals to finish fifth in that category, make your next pick a speedster.

More specifically, let's say you take Carl Crawford in the second round. At that moment, you should visualize Juan Pierre dropping a few spots in your rankings. When your next pick is Magglio Ordonez, you should picture Pierre rising back up a few spots.

That is, anytime you use a pick to take someone with a certain set of skills, everyone with the same set of skills loses a little value. And once you've reached the point where a first or second place finish in a category becomes very likely, the value of that stat basically goes to zero. So, when I took Wright, Crawford, and Ramirez in the first three rounds, Juan Pierre's value went to zero (or close to it, since I theoretically could have traded him or kept him as a reserve in case of injury).

Bottom line: keep track of where you're strong and where you're weak throughout the course of the draft and adjust your rankings accordingly.

P.S. - This probably goes without saying, but I should mention that when you draft a certain position, the value of everyone else at that position immediately drops immensely. When you take Jimmy Rollins in the first round, Troy Tulowitzki's value drops close to zero, considering you would have to take him in the third or fourth round. Sure, you could use him at utility, but why would you draft a shortstop in the fourth round, just to use him at utility? That's just silly.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Outfielders

Here are your 2008 MLB sleepers that qualify as outfielders (in order of sleeperishness):

Sleepers
1. Justin Upton - As I've said before, Upton is going to be a Griffey-esque superstar at some point. That's probably not going to be this year, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him go 20/20. Plus, he'll get plenty of playing time.

2. Jay Bruce - Anyone who thinks that Bruce isn't quite ready is wrong. Unfortunately, one of those people just might be Dusty Baker. Bruce is a complete hitter with nothing left to prove in the minors. Click on his name, look at what he did last year as he ascended through the minor league ranks and try to tell me he's not ready to contribute at the major league level.

3. Michael Bourn - You can take Juan Pierre with the 100th pick or you can wait 100 picks and get almost the same production out of Bourn. I suggest the latter.

4. Billy Butler - Butler qualifies at outfield in the Yahoo! game and I forgot to mention him among the first basemen. He's really a DH, but whatever. His career minor league AVG/OBP/SLG numbers were: .336/.416/.561 and last year he hit .292 with 8 homers in 92 games for the Royals. The kid can flat-out hit and once he gets comfortable in the majors, he'll hit 30 homers. He is only going to be 22 this season, so it might take a little time. Or it might not. That's what makes Butler such a fun sleeper.

5. Adam Jones - The Orioles have to give Jones playing time, right? They can't possibly play Jay Payton ahead of him, can they? Jones hit 25 homers in only 101 minor league games last season. Add to that his double-digit steal ability and you've got yourself a sleeper.


Semi-Sleepers
1. Josh Hamilton - 19 homers in only 90 games last season. It seems impossible that someone could be away from the game that long and come back and do what he's done. He must be a natural.

2. Josh Willingham - His power dropped a little last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to Willingham get close to 30 homers this year. Add in a few steals and more RBI opportunities with Cabrera's departure moving everyone up in the order. By the way, Willingham's teammate, Jeremy Hermida, deserves a mention as something of a semi-sleeper for the same reasons.


Deep Sleepers
1. Cameron Maybin - Maybin struggled a lot in his brief major league debut (21 strikeouts in 49 at-bats) but he is incredibly talented and, as of right now, the Marlins don't have any exciting alternatives in center field (sorry, Alejandro De Aza). So, Maybin could sneak in there and hit 10-15 homers and steal 25-35 bases. I'm not optimistic about his batting average as I think he'll strike out a lot, but the counting stats could be quite good.

2. Colby Rasmus - I guess Skip Schumaker will be in the Cardinals' outfield to start the year, but Rasmus is good enough that he could force the team's hand within a couple months. As with Maybin, I wouldn't count on a high batting average, but Rasmus did hit 29 homers in 128 minor league games last year and even chipped in 18 steals. You probably don't need to draft him, but be on the look-out for a call-up.

Draft Strategy - Lesson 3: Upside

If you take anything away from this site, this should be it, so pay attention.

Let's say you know of two equally-attractive girls with the exact same personality who are interested in you. Here's what you know about the two girls:

Girl A

• High school education
• Parents are middle class
• Favorite move is Titanic
• Doesn't understand guys' fascination with large breasts
• Gets together with her girlfriends to watch Grey's Anatomy

Girl B

• Recent medical school graduate
• Parents are loaded
• Has mentioned that porn is "pretty cool"
• Has expressed an interest in getting breast implants
• Gets together with her girlfriends to play drunk Twister

So, which girl do you go with? Girl B, of course. And, why? Because she has more Upside! They're both perfectly nice girls, both attractive, and both interested in you. But what sets Girl B apart is that she has the potential to make or inherit a lot of money and be extra fun in the sack.

What does this have to do with fantasy baseball, you ask? Bobby Abreu is Girl A and B.J. Upton is Girl B. You know more or less what you're going to get out of Abreu. And it's good. He's a solid fantasy contributor who you should seriously consider drafting, just as you would seriously consider dating Girl A. But then you meet B.J. And how could you settle for Bobby, when there's B.J.? Sure, he may make you cry at times, but there's a chance he'll be the belle of the ball, so to speak. And you can't miss out on that.

This isn't to say you should always go with Upside over the known commodity. If you did, you'd end up with a team of rookies and probably wouldn't fare too well. Here's what I'm saying: when you have a choice between two players who you project to have relatively equal stats, but one of them is a young guy whose stats have been improving and the other is a 35-year-old veteran whose stats have been stable for the past few years, go with the young guy. Every time.

How many people consistently win their fantasy league by taking a bunch of known commodities? Very few. It is absolutely essential that you draft a few guys who significantly outperfom expectations, and the easiest way to accomplish that is to draft players with Upside.

Here's what to look for:

• On the good side of the age curve. This means under 30 and preferably under 27.
• A recent upward trend. He should have been better in 2007 than he was in 2006.
• A good minor league track record. See Howard, Ryan.

Here's your All-Upside Team for 2008:

C - Geovany Soto

1B - Joey Votto

2B - B.J. Upton

3B - Alex Gordon

SS - Troy Tulowitzki

OF - Matt Kemp

OF - Nick Markakis

OF - Corey Hart

SP - Yovani Gallardo

SP - Francisco Liriano

SP - Chad Billingsley

RP - Huston Street

Joba Chamberlain to Start Year in the Bullpen

Word is that Chamberlain will start the year as the Yankees' setup man, rather than a part of the starting rotation. The team plans on sending him to the minors at some point so that he can stretch out his arm and start some games later on in the season. This is certainly a negative when it comes to Chamberlain's fantasy value. It sounds like he'll basically be as valuable as Jonathan Broxton until June, then have no value at all for a little while, and finally, be fairly valuable as a starter for a month or two. So here's an updated projection for Chamberlain:

105 IP, 7 W, 2 SV, 109 K, 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

That moves him from #146 overall in my rankings to #181. (I had already assumed he wouldn't pitch a ton of innings.)

Value Hunting in the Yahoo! Rankings - Pitchers

I've already taken a look at some of the better values among hitters in the Yahoo! rankings. Now, let's turn our attention to those crazy pitchers. I list the Fantasy Baseball Strategist (FBS) ranking along with the Yahoo! ranking. My full rankings can be found here.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (FBS: 35; Yahoo: 115) - Considering Yahoo! has Daisuke going in the middle of the tenth round of twelve-team leagues, this represents one of the best values you're going to find. I'd probably target him around the seventh or eighth round so as not to cut it too close - especially if you have a Red Sox fan in your league.

Javier Vazquez (FBS: 67; Yahoo: 104) - Vazquez is one of those guys whose peripheral stats always look better than the actual results. That said, he strikes guys out and he really is a good pitcher. I'd look at him in the eighth or early ninth round.

Rich Hill (FBS: 72; Yahoo: 124) - My man-love for Hill continues. His K/9 rate (8.5) is just too enticing too pass up in ninth or tenth round.

John Maine (FBS: 97; Yahoo: 143) - See Hill, Rich. You could probably even wait a little longer on Maine, say the tenth or eleventh round.

Rafael Soriano (FBS: 105; Yahoo: 151) - My favorite closer value. He's still young (28) and has a great career K/9 rate (9.2). Plus, the Braves should provide him with a decent number of save opportunities. What's not to love? Look for him in the 11th or 12th round.

Jeremy Bonderman (FBS: 110; Yahoo: 160) - You can read about my love for Bonderman's value in several previous posts. Grab him in the 12th or 13th round.

Oliver Perez (FBS: 136; Yahoo: 178) - Notice a theme here? Yahoo tends to undervalue strikeouts. I like Perez's K/9 rate of 8.9 last year and the strong run support he should get from the Mets. If he can keep his WHIP around the 1.31 mark that he posted in 2007 (as opposed to his career WHIP of 1.43), I would be a very happy camper. I'll be grabbing him in the 14th round.

George Sherrill (FBS: 149; Yahoo: 351) - This is based on the assumption that he'll be the Orioles' closer. If not, then forget I mentioned him. But with a career 9.7 K/9 rate, I don't see how the O's wouldn't make him the closer. Other people will probably be aware of Sherrill, so you might need to take him around the 15th round.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Shortstop

It's kind of a weak crop, but here are your 2008 MLB sleepers at shortstop (in order of sleeperishness):


Sleepers
1. Stephen Drew - He hit 12 homers as a 24-year-old last season, while only batting .238. His line drive rate (16.5%) combined with his batting average on balls in play (.267) suggests that he got a little unlucky. He's a great hitter who showed in college and the minors that he has real power. It's only a matter of time before he hits 20+ homeruns at the major league level. Drew also went 9-for-9 in steal attempts last season, so it wouldn't be surpising to see him attempt a few more in 2008.

2. Felipe Lopez - I feel pretty confident that Lopez will never hit 23 homers again like he did in 2005 or steal 44 bases like he did in 2006, but 10 HR and 25 SB is a very reasonable expectation. He's still young (28) and his upside is something in the neighborhood of 15 homers and 35 steals.

3. Julio Lugo - I know he was utterly disappointing last year, but 33 steals is 33 steals. His line drive rate declined in 2007, which is worrisome, but even taking into account that decline, he still got unlucky in the batting average department. At this point he's probably relegated to the #9 spot in the order, but when it's Boston's order, that's not a terrible place to be. He could still score plenty of runs.


Semi-Sleeper
Jhonny Peralta - Mr. and Mrs. Peralta should have faced some sort of disciplinary action for spelling Johnny wrong. It's not that hard. That said, Peralta still has plenty of upside left in him. In fact, if you sort PECOTA's projections by "Upside," Peralta ranks 15th among all position players. He has power and I think one of these years he's going to top 30 homers.


Deep Sleeper
Erick Aybar - Let's be clear: Aybar is a bad baseball player. He commits tons of errors, he makes baserunning mistakes, and he has very little power. So why should you keep your eye on him? Because the Angels just might be silly enough to run him out there at shortstop everyday and the kid is fast. Very fast. In his minor league career, Aybar average about a stolen base every three games. That's 54 over the course of a 162-game season. Of course, he won't be able to get on base enough to steal 54 bases, but if he gets a full-time gig, I'd expect to see him steal 30-35 bases.

Brandon Lyon will close in Arizona

Bob Melvin says that Brandon Lyon will get the first shot at replacing Jose Valverde as the Diamondbacks' closer.

Of Lyon, Tony Pena, and Chad Qualls, Lyon would be my last choice for closer for fantasy purposes, mostly because he has the lowest career K/9 rate (5.5) of the three. Qualls has the highest (6.9), by the way.

This certainly pushes Lyon's value up, but he would still be one of the last closers I would take since it would be very surprising to see him hold the job for the entire season. Feel free to pass on Lyon and grab Pena or Qualls mid-season when one of them takes the closer role from Lyon.

Value Hunting in the Yahoo! Rankings - Hitters

It's extremely important to look for good value among the rankings of whatever fantasy website you plan on using. That's because most people are heavily influenced by the default rankings sitting right in front of them. If Yahoo! tells them that Roy Halladay is the best available player, they're at least going to consider taking him. And if Yahoo! indicates that Alex Gordon is only the 30th best player available, they're probably going to wait a couple rounds to take him. The point is, you can take advantage of others' propensity to be heavily influenced by default rankings by drafting players you want a round or two before Yahoo! or ESPN or any other site indicates they should be drafted. So, here are some of the best values among hitters that I've identified within the Yahoo! rankings. I list Fantasy Baseball Strategist's (FBS) ranking first, along with Yahoo's ranking. My full rankings can be found here. I'll take a look at pitchers soon.

Corey Hart (FBS: 33; Yahoo: 69) - Hart stands an excellent chance of providing a positive contribution in every category. Yahoo! has him going in the sixth round of a twelve-team league; therefore, I'd target him in the fifth round.

Ian Kinsler (FBS: 43; Yahoo: 63) - Kinsler's batting average was his major weakness last season, but his line drive rate (19.6%) suggests that his batting average on balls in play (.279) was unlucky. Assuming he can maintain that line drive rate, I would expect to see something like a 20-point jump in his average. Combine that with 20 homers and 20 steals and you've got one fine player. Target him in the late fourth or early fifth round.

Ryan Zimmerman (FBS: 50; Yahoo: 97) - I'm expecting Zimmerman to continue his ascent to stardom. His only weakness is steals. Otherwise, he's darn close to David Wright. With Yahoo! putting him in the early ninth round, I'd probably start looking at taking him in the seventh round, just to be safe.

Adrian Gonzalez (FBS: 55; Yahoo: 83) - I don't think my projection of 95 R, 29 HR, 107 RBI, 1 SB, and .289 AVG is overly optimistic. So, if he posts anything near that, I think he represents a great value in the sixth or seventh round.

Matt Kemp (FBS: 61; Yahoo: 121) - Oh, Matt Kemp, will you get enough playing time to justify this high of a ranking? Assuming the Dodgers aren't complete idiots, Kemp will finish the season as one of the top 100 fantasy contributors and quite possibly in the top 50. With Yahoo! placing him at the beginning of the 11th round of a twelve-team league, I think he represents tremendous value. I wouldn't take him any earlier than the sixth round simply because there are more sure things at that point, but I'll be all over Kemp in the eighth or ninth round.

Jeff Francoeur (FBS: 63; Yahoo: 116) - I've made the case for Francoeur previously. Look for him in the eighth or ninth round.

Jeremy Hermida (FBS: 98; Yahoo: 177) - I probably like Hermida more than most. I know he's been disappointing so far in his career, but I really think he'll pick up some of the RBI that Miguel Cabrera is leaving behind. Target him in the 13th or 14th round and you should get very good value.

Joey Votto (FBS: 101; Yahoo: 249) - I'm pretty sure I could manage an MLB team better than Dusty Baker, so maybe Yahoo's ranking is justified, but I just have to think Votto will force Baker's stupid, stupid hand. An added bonus with Votto is that he's eligible at both first base and outfield. Based on this ranking, you might be able to wait until rounds 16 through 18, depending on the savviness of the other owners in your league.

Justin Upton (FBS: 112; Yahoo: 195) - Upton looks like more of a sure-thing as far as playing time than someone like Matt Kemp. I don't think he'll be quite as good as Kemp right now, but he should rack up the counting stats as the full-time right fielder. I have him down for 19 HR and 18 SB but a 20/20 season is certainly not out of the question. I've seen Upton go as early as the tenth round, but I'd be more inclined to target him in the 13th through 15th round.

Kelly Johnson (FBS: 118; Yahoo: 168) - PECOTA and I care a great deal for Johnson. He has a great shot at 20 HR and 10 SB along with a bunch of runs, which represents great value for a second baseman in the 13th or 14th round.

Geovany Soto (FBS: 119; Yahoo: 186) - Big power. Plenty of playing time. He'll put up similar numbers to Kenji Johjima, but you can get him five rounds later, say the 14th round.

Mark Reynolds (FBS: 143; Yahoo: 263) - If you miss out on some of the studs at third base, you can probably wait until the 18th or 19th round and snag Reynolds. He should get you at least 20 homers, with the possibility of 35.

The guys Yahoo! forgot:
For some reason these guys were ranked way the heck out there. In some cases, I guess it's because there's still a question as to whether they'll begin the year in the majors or not.
Jay Bruce (FBS: 93; Yahoo: 710)
Evan Longoria (FBS: 121; Yahoo: 697)
Carlos Ruiz (FBS: 145; Yahoo: 826)
Felix Pie (FBS: 221; Yahoo: 939)

Not real sure where you need to target these guys. It probably depends on how smart the others are in your league.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Overall Top 250

So, here are the top 250 fantasy players for 2008, ranked by Fantasy Value Above Replacement Player (FVARP). I've adjusted a few things here and there, so some players have moved around within their position. (Hanley Ramirez is now slightly ahead of Jose Reyes, for example.) I've also included everyone's ranking in the Yahoo fantasy game for comparison purposes. Enjoy.



Notes:

• Yes, I realize that almost every catcher looks higher than he should be. Is taking Victor Martinez 17th overall crazy? Maybe. But maybe not when you consider what you could get stuck with if you wait until the 15th round. In general, I would not take a catcher that high unless he was truly a superstar (think Mike Piazza in his prime), however, I would not think less of some who would. These rankings are based purely on my projections and how they relate to each player's value versus a replacement-level player at his position.
• I didn't give pitchers any kind of boost based on their value above a replacement-level player simply because pitchers' stats are so notoriously variable and difficult to project. If I had done that, you would see the first few rounds absolutely dominated by starting pitchers.
• There were a few players (Prior and Bonds) who weren't listed on Yahoo! yet. Bonds I understand. Prior, not so much.

Erik Bedard Trade Official

With the deal finally being official, here's how it breaks down fantasy-wise:

Erik Bedard: He'll get a little more run support, he'll be playing in a weaker division (no Yankees and Red Sox), and he'll be pitching in a better pitchers' park. Basically, his value goes up moderately. With this trade, I have him ranked as the third best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball behind only Santana and Peavy.

Adam Jones: Not a whole lot changes. Slightly better hitters' park and he should see plenty of playing time, so maybe a slight bump up in value.

George Sherrill - I love this guy. I know he's going to be 31 this year and he doesn't have a whole lot of name recognition, but in his major league career he has a 9.7 K/9 rate, including an 11.0 mark last year. I don't see any way he isn't the O's closer. If you're looking for a sleeper at closer, look no further.

Kelvim Escobar to start the year on DL

Word out of Anaheim is that Kelvim Escobar will start the year on the DL. No estimate on how long he'll be out, but you have to imagine it will be at least a couple weeks. I've adjusted my projection for Escobar downward to the following:

159 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 135 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

That moves him from the 29th-ranked starter to #46. Draft accordingly.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Relievers

Here are your relief pitchers. I basically gave them all 4 wins because it is impossible to project wins for relief pitchers with any degree of accuracy. So, I didn't include that column. Enjoy.

FV stands for Fantasy Value. Methodology found here.



Notes

• Rafael Soriano looks like the biggest steal to me. The Braves should be pretty good, meaning he'll get plenty of opportunities. Plus, he strikes out guys. I love that.
• Huston Street is pretty darn good. It's just too bad the A's aren't.
• I assumed the Erik Bedard trade would happen and that George Sherrill would take over the closer's role in Baltimore. I know that's an awful lot of assuming, but it's fun. If all of that actually happens, Sherrill will be very good as a closer. Of course, the Orioles are going to suck big ol' balls.
• I'm not a big proponent of drafting middle relievers, but if you feel the absolute need to do so, go with Broxton first. He's a stud.
• Not that I wish injury on anyone, but if (when) Kerry Wood goes down, Carlos Marmol is going to dominate as the Cubs' closer. At this point, he may not be worth drafting, but keep a close eye on Wood's health.

Curt Schilling's Status In Question

According to a Boston Herald report, Schilling has a serious shoulder injury. The Red Sox have reportedly looked into voiding his contract, indicating that it could keep him out for the entire season.

Looks like my love for Clay Buchholz is probably justified. Not that we ever wish injury on anyone, but this seems to solidify Buchholz's status as a great fantasy value.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Starting Pitchers

I tend to be very conservative when projecting pitchers' statistics. The reason for this is that stats like wins, ERA, and WHIP can vary wildly from season to season. I am a little less conservative when it comes to strikeouts because there is more correlation in K's from one season to the next than in most stats. So, before I get thousands of comments complaing about so-and-so's low win projection, just realize than I am well aware of the conservative nature of the pitching projections. I also didn't include saves because it's zero for everyone.

FV stands for Fantasy Value. Methodology found here.



Notes

• I adore Matsuzaka. I've laid out the case for him previously. It revolves around a good K rate and good run support.
• The Red Sox rotation gave me some problems. I basically just assumed all six of Beckett, Daisuke, Wakefield, Schilling, Lester, and Buchholz would get a bunch of innings. Obviously, that can't be true and right now Buchholz appears to be the odd-man-out, unfortunately. But, if he earns a spot in the rotation, you can see how highly I think of him.
• Yes, Bonderman had a rough 2007, but he's being way undervalued. I like him almost as much as his teammate, Verlander, who's being drafted seven or eight rounds earlier.
• McGowan ranks pretty highly, thanks to a good K/9 projection of 7.9.
• I like Mark Prior a lot if he's healthy. That's a big "if."
• Maine is going to rack up K's and wins feasting on some of those NL teams, with the Mets offense (and above-average defense) backing him up.
• I listed the top 81 so that Dontrelle Willis would show up. He hasn't been good for a while and that was playing in the NL. Now, he's going to the big boys' league and he's going to get lit up. The Tigers will probably score enough runs that he'll still be able to win a good chunk of games, but that's not enough to make up for his high ERA and WHIP, and low strikeouts.
• I like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum a lot, but that Giants offense is just plain terrible. I may have been generous even projecting 10 wins for each of them.
• It looks like Joba Chamberlain is going to start the year in the bullpen, but I don't see that lasting long. He'll be in the rotation at some point and he'll be mowing hitters down.

Yahoo! Up and Ready

You can now officially sign up for a Yahoo! fantasy baseball team (or four). ESPN's fantasy baseball isn't ready quite yet, but word is that it should be soon. For my money (not that I pay), Yahoo! is the best, most reliable service. ESPN has made significant strides and is certainly worth trying.

I plan on posting a full analysis of Yahoo!'s and ESPN's rankings since those are probably the two most-used sites for fantasy baseball. But, for now, go sign up.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Third Base

There is an absolute plethora of talent at third base this year - both at the high end and in sleeper territory. Here are some of the highlights (in order of sleeperishness):

Sleepers
1. Evan Longoria - Have I mentioned that Longoria is good? With Willie Aybar in a Dominican jail, Longoria's chances of securing the Opening Day job have increased even more. Assuming he plays full time, I don't see any way he doesn't hit more than 20 homers, based on his track record. There is the possibility (slim, admittedly) of a Ryan Braun-esque season here, minus the steals. I have a feeling that his average draft position will gradually increase as the millions of visitors to this site begin to take my advice, so he could turn into a semi-sleeper, but that's ok. He'll still be worth it.

2. Mark Reynolds - The only real concern here is that Chad Tracy steals some playing time from Reynolds. PECOTA is optimistic, projecting him to hit 28 homers. I'm slightly less enthusiastic, projecting 25. The point is, he showed real power last year and should be a major run producer this year.

3. Andy LaRoche - The Dodgers currently have Nomar Garciaparra listed as the third baseman on their depth chart, so it's important to temper expectations based on Dodger stupidity. However, I have to believe that at some point either A) the Dodgers will wise-up or B) Nomar will strain his groin. (Not that we wish injury on anyone.) LaRoche slugged .589 at AAA and hit 18 homers in only 73 minor league games. The Dodgers front office seems to be the only group of people on the planet who don't realize how good he is. My theory: Nomar is blackmailing Ned Coletti with compromising pictures of Coletti with Frank McCourt's wife.

Semi-Sleeper
Edwin Encarnacion - I've seen Encarnacion go anywhere from the 12th to 21st round, so he could very easily qualify as a full-fledged sleeper. As I mentioned already, PECOTA likes Encarnacion quite a bit. And why not? He hit 16 homers and stole 8 bases in 139 games last season at the tender age of 24. I don't think he'll every hit 40 HR but his upside this season is something in the 30-homer, 100-RBI, 15-steal, .300-average area.

Deep Sleeper
Chase Headley - The Padres are pondering whether to move the poor-fielding Kevin Kouzmanoff to left field to make room for Headley. He hits for good power, a .300 average and draws a bunch of walks. He's an ideal #2 hitter because he can get on base and score runs. He doesn't steal bases, but you can't have everything. Honorable mention should go to Brandon Wood who could find playing time in Anaheim if other options fail at either third or short.

Baseball Prospectus Favorites - Hitters Edition

I love Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA projection system. I'm currently in the process of adjusting my rankings based on things I'm seeing in PECOTA. But, for now, I thought it would be interesting if I took PECOTA's projections and plugged them into my ranking system. I can't share their actual projections because I could get sued. But, here are some highly ranked players using PECOTA's projections.

(Their rank among all hitters is listed first. The second number is their rank at their position.)

Ryan Braun (3, 2)
Derrek Lee (16, 5)
Corey Hart (18, 3)
Ryan Zimmerman (29, 8)
Chris Young (30, 9)
Jay Bruce (32, 11)
Edwin Encarnacion (50, 9)


And some they like less than most:

Carlos Beltran (28, 8)
Chone Figgins (74, 14 - third base)
Manny Ramirez (93, 38)
Miguel Tejada (122, 10)
Howie Kendrick (174, 13)
Edgar Renteria (274, 22)

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Second Base

There really aren't many sleepers at this position, so this is kind of a sad group. But these are the guys I thought were worth mentioning (in order of sleeperishness):

Sleepers
1. Aaron Hill - In his Age-25 season last year, Hill hit .291 with 17 HR. His main weakness is a lack of speed (only 4 steals last year), but he could very easily pop 20 homers this year. If you're deciding between Hill and a similar player like Jeff Kent, take a chance on Hill's upside.

2. Asdrubal Cabrera - Although he won't hit for much power (10 HR is probably his ceiling this year), Cabrera will probably score plenty of runs in the potent Indians offense. Here's the really enticing/scary part about Cabrera: last year he stole 25 bases in 105 minor league games but didn't even attempt a stolen base in 45 major league games. Is he afraid to steal in the majors? I'm betting that he starts trying to steal a few bases this year. I have him down for 13, but I wouldn't be surprised if he tops 20.

3. Alexi Casilla - You probably don't need to draft Casilla since he'll most likely be backing up Brendan Harris on Opening Day, but he's someone to keep an eye on. He stole 35 bases between AAA and the bigs last year and has always hit for a high average in the minors. With little power, a good OBP, and speed, he reminds me of Luis Castillo.

Semi-Sleeper
Kelly Johnson - Using PECOTA's projections and my ranking system, Johnson would rank sixth among second basemen heading into the season. I don't like him quite that much, but I do think he's being overlooked by many. He'll hit a few homers and steal a few bases. The question is the batting average. But, in the middle rounds, I'd definitely be willing to take my chances.

Deep Sleeper
Matt Antonelli - Once the Padres realize the Tadahito Iguchi isn't very good, they could turn to Antonelli, who hit 21 homers in the minors last year, while hitting for a high average and drawing walks. He also chipped in 28 steals. It may be a year early to look at Antonelli, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him contribute in San Diego this year.