Draft Strategy - Lesson 5: Saves

Don't spend high draft picks or large dollar amounts on closers. I could leave it at that, but a little more explanation might be helpful.

Basically, the reason is this: the replacement level for closers is much higher than at all other positions, because most of their value lies in the fact that they accumulate saves.

Let's look at an example. Here are two stat lines:

B.J. Ryan (2006) - 72 1/3 IP, 2 wins, 86 K, 1.37 WHIP, 0.86 WHIP, 38 saves
Jeremy Accardo (2007) - 67 1/3 IP, 4 wins, 57 K, 2.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30 saves

Clearly, you'd rather have a healthy Ryan, but because they're only pitching about 70 innings, the value of the lower ERA and WHIP isn't nearly as meaningful as it appears. The 29-strikeout differential is no fun, but here's why Accardo isn't that much less valuable that Ryan: with the sixth-round pick you spent on Ryan last year, you probably could have had Prince Fielder, whereas, you didn't need to draft Accardo at all. He only cost you the worst player on your team when you picked him up on the waiver wire.

The point is, players like Accardo, Kevin Gregg, and Manny Corpas are going to appear every year. They're cheap (almost free, in fact), they get you what you're really looking for in a closer (saves), and they're not that much worse than the elite closers (when you factor in low innings totals).

The trick is, you have to be fast on the waiver wire. As soon as you here about a change in closers, rush to the waiver wire and grab the replacement.

Here are ten closer situations to keep an eye on this year:
Baltimore: Sherrill has to be the favorite, but you never know.
Cleveland: Betancourt is a better pitcher than Borowski.
Tampa Bay: Can they really trust Percival for an entire season?
Texas: Wilson, Guardado, Benoit. All three may get an opportunity.
Toronto: Is Ryan fully recovered?
Arizona: Lyon gets the first shot, but Pena and Qualls are better pitchers.
Cubs: Howry, Marmol, or Wood? Who knows?
Dodgers: Saito's good, but if he gets hurt, Broxton would be one of the best.
Milwaukee: Gagne could be great or terrible and Turnbow isn't bad.
San Diego: Hoffman is old and Bell is good. Just sayin'.

One last point:
If it's late in the draft and you only have one closer and there aren't any others available, don't worry. Chances are you're set at every other position by that time. So, take a middle reliever. Grab Jonathan Broxton or Heath Bell - someone who will help your ERA and WHIP and just might get a chance to close at some point.