Royals Starting Lineup

Here's the Royals' lineup for their opener against the Tigers today:

DeJesus
Grudzielanek
Gordon
Guillen
Butler
Teahen
Gload
Buck
Pena

This is very good news for two of my guys: Gordon and Butler. There had been a lot of talk about hitting them sixth and seventh, which was very confusing to me. Gordon gains some value in the #3 spot as his RBI and runs numbers should benefit. Of course, he still has to hit and prove that he belongs there.

Andre Ethier gets left field gig

The Dodgers aren't stupid. At least, Joe Torre isn't.

Ethier, who vastly outplayed Juan Pierre in Spring Training will be the Dodgers' starting left fielder and Pierre will pinch-hit, pinch-run, and probably make a few spot starts.

This is bad news for those of you who drafted Juan Pierre in the tenth round (I told you to wait and grab Michael Bourn in the eighteenth), but good news for those of you interested in taking a chance on Ethier.

I wouldn't be overly optimistic about Ethier, though. I think 15-20 homers, 80 RBI, a .290 average, and one or two steals is a reasonable expectation. That can certainly help your team, but it's not going to win a league for you.

If you're a Dodger fan (which I am not), this should be great news as Ethier is clearly the superior player. I think the Dodgers' lineup is very good from top to (almost) bottom.

Fredi Gonzalez is a douchebag

Here's what Fredi Gonzalez had to say about the prospects of Hanley Ramirez stealing 50 bases this year:

"I hope not. The reason being, your body gets banged up and the wear and tear. Here's a guy who hits you .300 with a chance to hit 30 (home runs) and drive in a lot of runs. I'm scared because the more you're that type of a stolen bases (guy), even when you don't steal and you're diving back to first base, you get banged up."

Here's the kicker:
"Hopefully, the home runs go up and the stolen bases go down."

Ouch. Expecting something like this, I've only projected Hanley Ramirez to steal 41 bases this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower than that. So, let's assume 35 steals. I can't project more homeruns simply because that's what the coach wants to see, so we'll have to stick with 29 there. Obviously the coach has much more control over steals than homeruns. Making that downward adjustment to steals moves Ramirez from 2nd in my overall rankings to 5th, behind Rodriguez, Reyes, Wright, and Santana.

On a side note, I actually agree with Gonzalez and would rather see Ramirez concentrate on hitting if I was a Marlins fan. However, for fantasy baseball purposes, I stand by my claim that Gonzalez is a douchebag.

Cameron Maybin to AA

Maybin had a rough spring and will start the year at AA. He'll be called up at some point and if you need steals, he could be a good pick-up. But there's no point in holding him now unless you're in a keeper league.

Evan Longoria to AAA

Sad news. Longoria will start the year in AAA.

Be ready to pounce in a month or so. Or, if you have a deep bench, don't be afraid to hold onto him as I'm very confident he'll be in the majors and productive sooner rather than later.

Manny Parra gets a rotation spot

Go pick up Manny Parra. He had an inconsistent spring, but he has secured a spot in the Milwaukee rotation and should be quite good.

Also, sorry for the lack of posts but I was in Arizona, catching some Spring Training games.

Colby Rasmus to start the year in AAA

Word out of St. Louis camp is that the Cardinals will start the season with Rick Ankiel as their center fielder and Colby Rasmus will play for the AAA team. Chances are good that injuries will force the Cardinals to call Rasmus up at some point. Be alert for that day, because Rasmus should contribute in both the power and speed categories.

Breakout Candidates based on Spring numbers

As I've said before, Spring Training stats don't mean much. Obviously, if there's a player with injury questions who is performing well, that's probably a good sign. But for the most part, hitters are working out their swings and pitchers are trying new pitches or refining old ones.

But there is some evidence of a correlation between posting a slugging average (SLG) 200 points above one's career mark and a breakout season. So, I scanned the Spring Training numbers for high SLG and came up with some guys who are 200 points or more above their career averages. I also included some young players who don't have major league numbers yet.




Comments:

• The Tigers' Spring Training stadium must be a hitters' paradise because there are four Tigers on the list. Either that, or Detroit is going to score 1,200 runs this year.
• Yes, I know Billy Butler's SLG isn't actually 200 points above his career average, but it's close enough for a mention. I'm getting more and more excited about him.
• Josh Hamilton is ridiculous. He had a streak of 13 straight plate appearances where he reached base. He really could have an incredible year.
• It appears that Chase Headley will earn the starting left field job for the Padres. I wouldn't get overly excited, but he could make a nice little contribution in the 20-homer, 85-RBI neighborhood.
• I'm not sure if this is true, but I have a feeling that this whole 200-point increase thing applies less to older players like Torii Hunter, Lance Berkman, and Ivan Rodriguez. But maybe not.
• Andre Ethier's breakout is a little disconcerting for a Matt Kemp fan like myself. (Kemp didn't miss this list by much. He's having a good spring, too.)
• Evan Longoria might force the Rays to make him their starting third baseman. I think they'd ideally like to start him at AAA, but if he keeps hitting like this, it's going to be hard for them to deny him a spot on the 25-man roster.
• The bar was set pretty low for Erick Aybar (.295), but the .625 spring SLG probably makes Aybar the favorite for the shortstop gig in Anaheim over Maicer Izturis.

2008 Fantasy Sleepers - Deep Sleepers

I've taken a look at my favorite sleepers already, but let's look at the ten best deep sleepers out there. These are the guys you probably don't need to draft in a shallow mixed league.


Manny Parra – He’ll be up at some point. That rotation can’t stay healthy all year. And when he gets the call, Parra will have a Gallardo-esque impact.

Carlos Gomez – I can’t believe I haven’t mentioned him until now. He’s really not all that good, but the Twins may not have any other choice in center field. If Gomez plays the full year, look for 30-40 steals.

Steve Pearce – The Pirates need to find room for Pearce. He can mash.

Gio Gonzalez – The A’s rotation is…interesting. After they trade Blanton and Harden gets hurt, they may be forced to plug Gonzalez in there.

Edinson Volquez - Assuming he earns a spot in the rotation, Volquez should rack up plenty of K's. If he can keep the ball in the park, he could post a decent ERA.

Adam Loewen - Loewen has serious control issues. But, he's also been quite a strikeout pitcher in his minor league days. If he can cut his walk-rate significantly, Loewen could be a nice little surprise.

Nyjer Morgan - He can run. Morgan figures to be the Pirates' starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter. He's not a great hitter (absolutely no power), but if he can hit well enough to stay in the lineup, we could see 40 steals out of him.

Jeff Clement - If it wasn't for Kenji Johjima, Clement would probably be the Mariners' starting catcher. As it stands, he'll probably start the year in AAA. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the M's call him up and have Johjima do some DH-ing. Clement hit 20 homers at AAA last season.

J.P. Howell - Howell gets lost in the shuffle for a rotation spot, but he's basically Scott Kazmir Lite. He's a smallish (6-0, 180) lefty with strikeout ability and could find a way into the Tampa Bay rotation.

Matt Antonelli - He's a solid player all the way around. In the not-too-distant future, I expect to see the second baseman post a 20-homer, 20-steal, .290 season. It could be this year, but it looks like he'll start the year at AAA.

Kyle Lohse signs with Cardinals

In a mixed league, I don't think Lohse is worth owning. In an NL-only league, he's worth a pick-up. He should post an ERA in the mid-4's along with 120-130 strikeouts. Certainly nothing to get excited about. I do think it's hilarious that he held out for so long and ended up only getting a one-year deal in the $4-5 million range.

Evaluating My Team - Team #6

I had my sixth draft this weekend and I thought I should post the results so you can see that I practice what I preach. This is a standard 5x5, 12-team, roto league. I had the fourth overall pick. Here's my team (along with which round I took them in):

Hitters
C - J.R. Towles (16th round) - I really smell a Russell Martin-esque season for Towles. He's been a little dinged up in Spring Training, but nothing serious.
1B - Mark Teixeira (3rd round) - He hit the NL well after the trade last year and keep in mind that he's in a contract year. (Yes, there is some evidence that players perform slightly better in contract years.)
2B - B.J. Upton (2nd round) - Make me proud, B.J.
3B - David Wright (1st round) - I was really tempted to take Johan Santana, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it.
SS - Rafael Furcal (6th round) - Boring, I know. But he should get some steals and score some runs.
OF - Eric Byrnes (4th round) - This team might be a little steals-heavy, but that's ok.
OF - Nick Markakis (5th round) - I decided that I wasn't going to take Corey Hart, because I like my teams to be at least a little different. So, I went for Markakis' RBI.
OF - Delmon Young (9th round) - He's tentatively scheduled to hit third in the Minnesota lineup which means plenty of RBI opportunities for Young.
Util - Matt Kemp (10th round) - Yes, there's a significant risk that he won't get as much playing time as he should. But, I'm confident that he'll force the Dodgers to play him.
Bench - Evan Longoria (15th round) - It's still unclear whether he'll make the Opening Day roster, but I thought I'd take a chance on at least one team.
Bench - Billy Butler (20th round) - He's been tearing it up in the spring (not that it means anything) and I fully expect Butler to continue hitting once the season starts.

Pitchers
SP - John Smoltz (7th round) - I don't usually go after old pitchers, but I keep finding myself going back to Smoltz. Good K rate and should win plenty of games.
SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka (8th round) - Love me some Daisuke. Same basic story as Smoltz.
SP - Rich Hill (11th round) - Usually I grab him in the 10th round. I decided to be patient this time and it paid off.
SP - John Maine (12th round) - I just adore Hill and Maine. Can't get enough.
SP - Oliver Perez (14th round) - Strikeouts and wins.
SP - Jon Lester (21st round) - He's been very sharp in Spring Training.
RP - Joakim Soria (13th round) - Saves.
RP - C.J. Wilson (17th round) - He's a little dinged up, but I still expect Wilson to be the Rangers' closer.
RP - Brandon Lyon (18th round) - He's not very good, but Lyon should get some saves.
RP - George Sherrill (19th round) - Have I mentioned that everyone should draft Sherrill?

Bottom Line
The only weakness I see on this team is that my lineup may be a little too strong in steals and, hence, not strong enough in homers and RBI. It's not bad enough that I feel the immediate need to make any deals, though. The pitching staff is strong and I actually have four closers, which is unusual for me. I feel pretty confident here.

George Sherrill very likely the O's closer

Orioles manager Dave Trembley told the Baltimore Sun a couple days ago that Sherrill is "leading the pack" for the closer's role. Sherrill has pitched five innings, struck out four without walking a batter, and only giving up one run on two hits.

Ever since the Erik Bedard trade, I've been assuming that Sherrill would take over the closer's role. I feel confident recommending that you draft this guy.

Rocco Baldelli headed to the DL

In other news, dogs lick their own balls.

But, seriously, Baldelli isn't sure when (or if) he'll play again. He says he has some kind of condition that puts him in a constant state of fatigue. I believe it's called "pussyitis."

Don't draft Baldelli and if you happen to own him, it's time to part ways.

A Look at Spring Training - Pitchers

Spring Training stats mean nothing. Well, almost nothing. There is some evidence that a 200+ point spike in SLG over a player's career average indicates that he may have a breakout season. I'll try to take a look at that in about a week after players have compiled more stats. But, for now, I just wanted to mention a few players who have made news in camp and look at what effect it might have on your fantasy team. Like I said, Spring Training stats mean almost nothing. So, what I'm mostly looking at is how some of these guys may be making a case for more playing time or early-season call-ups.

Jair Jurrjens - He's pitched nine innings and only allowed one run. This kind of performance could force the Braves to put him in the rotation. His peripherals aren't incredibly impressive (4 K, 2 BB), but he could help your fantasy team if he does indeed earn a rotation spot.

Manny Parra - The Brewers have only had him start one game, but in nine innings pitched, Parra has eight K's, only one walk, and allowed only one run (a solo homer). I think the plan is to start Parra in AAA to begin the year, but I'm sure he's impressed the coaches and could be a pretty quick call-up when injuries occur.

Nick Adenhart - The Angels have a few question marks in the rotation with Kelvim Escobar starting the year on the DL, John Lackey a little sore, and Ervin Santana generally sucking ass. Adenhart is making a strong case for a call-up early in the year with 8 2/3 innings pitched and 3 runs allowed. Yesterday he pitched four innings of shutout baseball against the A's.

Edinson Volquez - His ERA sits at 5.63 but Volquez has recorded 13 strikeouts in only 8 innings pitched. I have very little faith in the intelligence of the Cincinnati organization, but in theory this should help him solidify a spot in the rotation. And I like the K's.

Jesse Litsch - On the bubble for the #5 spot in the Toronto rotation, Litsch is making a great case for himself over the likes of Gustavo Chacin. Sure, the 6.75 ERA isn't pretty, but the Blue Jays are smart enough to appreciate the value of 9 strikeouts and 2 walks in 8 innings pitched. If he keeps that up, I'm sure he'll impress the organization enough to grab that fifth spot. In an AL-only league, Litsch is a very interesting sleeper.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Semi-Sleepers Edition

Everyone's definition of a sleeper is different. I defined mine as players who were being drafted after pick #200 on average and you can see my Top 30 MLB Sleepers countdown here, here, and here. But, I thought it would be worth looking at those players being drafted in the 150-200 range who could break out. Let's call them semi-sleepers. Here are my favorites:

1. James Loney – I believe in the power increase. A .300 average and 20-25 homers sounds pretty good to me.

2. Geovany Soto – The next power-hitting catcher has arrived. The kid destroyed AAA last season and while some bumps in the road are to be expected, Soto should approach 20 homers this season.

3. Oliver Perez – Strikeouts and wins, my friends.

4. Kelly Johnson – Are people afraid of him because he has a girl’s name? Kelly Leak was pretty good. Johnson is still young (26), plays for a very good offensive team, hits homers (16 last year), could get to double-digit steals, and should score a bunch of runs. If you miss out on the Uptons and Kinslers of the second base world, just wait and grab Johnson.

5. Jeremy Bonderman – By now, you probably know how I feel about Bonderman. Good K's, still young, great run support, funny nose.

6. Edwin Encarnacion – PECOTA loves this guy. Who am I to disagree? He has a very nice power/speed combo.

7. Stephen Drew – He has a real shot at 20 homers and 15 steals. The batting average should improve too, unless he’s just unlucky. I'd rather take Drew in the 18th round than Renteria in the tenth.

Evaluating My Team - Team #5

I had my fifth draft this weekend and I thought I should post the results so you can see that I practice what I preach. This is a standard 5x5, 12-team, roto league. I once again had the seventh overall pick. Here's my team (along with which round I took them in):

Hitters
C - J.R. Towles (16th round) - I might have been able to wait a little longer on Towles, but I didn't want to miss out on him like I did in my last draft. He's hitting well in Spring Training so far. I'm optimistic.
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (7th round) - I love me some Adrian Gonzalez. He's one of the few first basemen with considerable upside.
2B - B.J. Upton (2nd round) - I decided at the beginning that I was going to take Upton, even if I had to do it early. So I took him. Early.
3B - Miguel Cabrera (1st round) - OK, normally I would have taken Jimmy Rollins with this pick, but I already have him on one team and I wanted to mix it up. (I enjoy diversification.)
SS - Derek Jeter (4th round) - I hate Jeter, but I wasn't willing to accept the dropoff in shortstop after him.
OF - Corey Hart (5th round) - I'm running out of clever things to say about Hart. He's becoming a fifth round tradition for me.
OF - Chris Young (6th round) - Power and speed.
OF - Jeremy Hermida (14th round) - I love this guy. Can't get enough Hermida.
Util - Ryan Zimmerman (9th round) - I just couldn't pass on Zimmerman in the ninth round. I figured I could try to trade either him or Cabrera if I decided that two third basemen was too much.
Bench - Justin Upton (17th round) - Upside.
Bench - Ryan Garko (18th round) - HR and RBI potential.
Bench - Michael Bourn (20th round) - I'm a little weak in steals, so Bourn could help with that.

Pitchers
SP - Erik Bedard (3rd round) - I love the strikeouts.
SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka (8th round) - There were certain guys who I decided I was going to get in this draft, even if it meant taking them on the early side. Daisuke (along with B.J. Upton) falls into that category.
SP - Rich Hill (10th round) - The love affair continues.
SP - John Maine (11th round) - Rich Hill lite.
SP - Dustin McGowan (13th round) - Not bad for my #5 starter.
SP - Oliver Perez (15th round) - Really not bad for my #6 starter.
SP - Matt Garza (19th round) - Upside.
SP - Jon Lester (21st round) - He's no Buchholz, but he ain't bad.
RP - Rafael Soriano (12th round) - He'll stike 'em out and rack up saves.

Bottom Line
My rotation is dreamy. Lots of K's, plenty of wins, and even some upside as everyone is young. Obviously, I'm short on closers. I'm really not worried, though. I'll be very quick on the waiver wire. My lineup is strong, although possibly lacking in steals. I'm trying to package Bedard (since my rotation is so deep) with someone else to get a first- or second-round hitter. (Sizemore, Hanley, and Rollins are among my targets.)

UPDATE: I have a deal in place to trade Bedard and Jeter for Hanley Ramirez. I love it!

Targets: Picks 101-200

Some may argue against targeting players because it causes you to focus too much on certain players at the risk of ignoring better players who have slipped in the draft. And I agree to a certain extent. It's fine to have targets, but you shouldn't get overly focused on them. But it's certainly worthwhile to have some players who you think have some upside, because - let's face it - the only way you win a league is by having some players break out.

So, I've put together a list of players you should think about targeting, but I want to stress that you shouldn't get carried away. Just because Matt Kemp is one of your targets, that doesn't mean you should draft him ahead of Bobby Abreu. Be reasonable.

Here are the players you should target between the 101st and 200th pick in the draft. For picks 1-100, see this post.

Picks 101-110
Tim Lincecum - The Giants' offense will be utterly pathetic. Lincecum's run support will not be pretty, meaning his win total is likely to be low. But, you have to love a guy who strikes out more than a batter per inning and plays in a good pitchers' park. Just be aware that if you draft Lincecum, you may need to balance him with some pitchers who you expect to win some games.


Picks 111-120
Alex Gordon - Amid high expectations, Gordon struggled in his rookie season. But, after the first two months of the season, he hit .275 and slugged .461. While those numbers aren't incredibly impressive, they're less disgusting than his season totals (.247 and .411, respectively). And don't forget that he also added 14 steals. The kid is too talented not to succeed. Don't be afraid to grab him.

Matt Kemp - Oh, Matt. You're so, so good. I sure hope you don't have to split time with Andre Ethier. Seriously, when are these teams going to grasp the concept of a sunk cost and just let players like Juan Pierre sit on the bench where he belongs? I'm convinced that Kemp will force the Dodgers to find playing time for him.


Picks 121-130
Rich Hill - Rich Hill is your friend. Rich Hill will strike out almost a batter per inning. Rich Hill will win games because the Cubs will score runs and because the NL Central is utterly shitty. Draft Rich Hill.


Picks 131-140
John Maine - Maine is almost identical to Hill in terms of strikeouts and win potential. The only reason I rank Maine slightly lower is that he walks more batters than Hill, making a higher WHIP likely.


Picks 141-150
Chad Billingsley - For those of you who are familiar with investment terms, Billingsley has a higher Beta than Hill or Maine. That is, he has more upside, but also more downside. He could find his groove and be absolutely dominant this year, or he could struggle with his control and be a dud. I lean towards the former and I am perfectly willing to take a chance on this kid.

Jeremy Hermida - I fully expect to see Hermida hitting in the #3 spot in the batting order, which means many opportunities to drive in Hanley Ramirez. Assuming that's the case, Hermida should easily reach 100 RBI.


Picks 151-160
Jeremy Bonderman - Good K rate, great run support. I swear he's going to put it all together at some point. My money's on this year.


Picks 161-170
Edwin Encarnacion - Encarnacion should approach 20 homers and 10 steals, with room to the upside. He's basically Alex Gordon lite.

Oliver Perez - The only question with Perez is his control. He strikes bitches out like a crazy man and he plays for a team that should score plenty of runs. If he can keep his BB/9 rate around the manageable 4.0 of last season, Perez could get 15 wins and 200 K's.


Picks 171-180
Stephen Drew - If you miss out on the top tier of shortstops, I'd be very tempted to just wait it out and take Drew late in the draft. His batting average (.238) is sure to increase (unless he's just destined to be unlucky) and the power should continue to increase with 20 homers a possbility. He was also 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts last year. Hey, Stephen - run a little more, buddy. You're pretty good at it.


Picks 181-190
Geovany Soto - If anyone has a chance to be the next Victor Martinez, it's this guy. Soto slugged .652 at AAA last year and was very impressive in his brief stint in the majors. I have him ranked seventh among catchers


Picks 191-200
Ryan Garko - Finally getting the playing time he deserves, Garko is showing that he has legitimate power. He's entering the magical age-27 season (which, by the way, is meaningful but not as much as some people think) and should be a key component of the Indians' great lineup.

Reds sign Corey Patterson

According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds have signed Corey Patterson to a minor-league deal. This is important for fantasy baseball purposes because Dusty Baker is an idiot and will probably fall in love with Patterson's low on-base percentage and hand him the center field job. That directly affects the value of both Patterson and our good friend Jay Bruce. Here's the breakdown:

Patterson - When healthy, the little guy has the ability to hit 20 homers and steal 40 bases (albeit with a .260 batting average). The problem is, he's rarely healthy. That said, I wouldn't be afraid to write him down for 15 homers and 30 steals. That has some value. Just keep your expectations tempered due to the low batting average and the distinct possibility that he'll miss 30 games. Right now, I wouldn't draft Patterson until the very last round or two, simply because we don't know whether he'll actually make the Opening Day lineup. But keep an eye on him.

Bruce - This is why I cautioned about drafting rookies in February - because we just don't have enough information to determine whether they'll be in the big leagues to start the year. Obviously, if you're in a deep keeper league, feel free to grab Bruce as I think he'll be a stud in the coming years. But, in more shallow mixed leagues, I would pass on him unless you're a very patient person.

Evaluating My Team - Team #4

I had my fourth draft this weekend and I thought I should post the results so you can see that I practice what I preach. This is a standard 5x5, 12-team, roto league. I had the seventh overall pick. Here's my team (along with which round I took them in):

Hitters
C - Empty - I waited one round too long on J.R. Towles and ended up staring at the likes of John Buck and Mike Napoli. I may try to swing a trade or I may end up grabbing someone like Napoli. The point is, I messed up here. Oh well. I'll figure something out.
1B - Travis Hafner (4th round) - I love me some Pronk. He'll get back on track.
2B - Ian Kinsler (6th round) - Who else would I take?
3B - Alex Gordon (13th round) - It speaks to the depth of the third base position that I was able to wait until the 13th round to grab a talent like Gordon.
SS - Jimmy Rollins (1st round) - I really wanted one of the Big Three shortstops and I was happy to see Rollins available with the seventh pick.
OF - Grady Sizemore (2nd round) - Chicks dig him. Plus, he's good at baseball.
OF - Corey Hart (5th round) - You know how I feel about this five-category stud.
OF - Jeff Francoeur (9th round) - I desperately needed some RBI and I really like this young guy.
Util - Andruw Jones (11th round) - I was still thinking RBI and I thought Jones was a great value at this point.
Bench - Edwin Encarnacion (16th round) - I wanted another good third baseman in case Gordon doesn't do what I think he'll do.
Bench - James Loney (17th round) - Insurance for Hafner's questionable health. Plus, my batting average is going to be an issue and Loney is someone who could help with that.
Bench - Jeremy Hermida (18th round) - I just couldn't pass up a likely 100-RBI guy at this point in the draft.
Bench - Justin Upton (19th round) - Shit, I have a lot of good hitters on my bench. I need to do some trading.
Bench - Michael Bourn (21st round) - Speed insurance.

Pitchers
SP - Erik Bedard (3rd round) - Love the high K rate.
SP - John Smoltz (7th round) - Strikeouts and wins.
SP - Tim Lincecum (8th round) - I wasn't crazy about this pick because he won't get many wins with that utterly shitty San Francisco offense. But I love the youth and the strikeouts.
SP - Rich Hill (10th round) - Big question: will I have a Rich Hill-less team this year?
SP - Chad Billingsley (12th round) - I wanted John Maine but settled for Billingsley.
SP - Dustin McGowan (15th round) - I'll probably sit him against the tougher AL opponents, but I like McGowan quite a bit.
RP - Joe Borowski (14th round) - Saves.
RP - George Sherrill (20th round) - Closers went early and often in this draft, so I was left picking from the scraps. But I was pleased to snag Sherrill this late.

Bottom Line
I think this is probably the weakest of my four teams so far. I have a very deep offense and could probably stand to trade some guys in order to upgrade. My batting average and RBI are concerns. My pitching staff has a nice mix of reliability and upside. Obviously, I'll need tobe quick on the waiver wire to snag any newly-appointed closers.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers Countdown - #1-10

Here's the next installment of my 2008 MLB sleepers countdown. My qualification for calling someone a sleeper was simple: anyone who is being drafted after the 200th pick, on average. I used Fantasy Gameday's Average Draft Position (ADP) report for data on players' ADP. This list is more or less in order of how excited I am about these guys. For #11-30, see this post and this post.

10. Mark Reynolds (303) – He could very easily hit 30 homers, yet he’s going undrafted in many leagues. Third base is deep, my friends.

9. Billy Butler (316) – You’re going to be 22 years old, buddy. Go by Bill or William or Will. But keep on hitting.

8. Ryan Garko (202) – Power hitter in a good lineup.

7. Kevin Kouzmanoff (246) – A career .332 hitter in the minors, Kouzmanoff got off to a terrible start last year, hitting .113 in April with only 1 homer. After that, he hit .303 and hit 3 or 4 homers every month. He might never hit 30 homers, but a .300 average and 20 homers is a very reasonable expectation.

6. Michael Bourn (242) – He’s a cheaper version of Juan Pierre.

5. Joey Votto (240) – He’s one of the few first basemen who will give you some steals. The only reason he’s not higher on this list is because of the possibility he’ll be forced to share time with Scott Hatteberg.

4. Evan Longoria (234) – It’s still possible he won’t start the year in the majors, but once he gets there, he’ll be productive. Count on it.

3. Clay Buchholz (216) – He’s a stud on a stud team. With Curt Schilling’s injury, it appears that Buchholz has the inside track to a spot in the rotation.

2. J.R. Towles (271) – He has the potential for a Russell Martin-esque season due to his speed. Obviously, he’s in the #2 spot because he’s a catcher.

1. Justin Upton (252) – Yes, he’s really young and inexperienced. Yes, he still has another five or six years before he reaches his peak. But he is so freaking talented, that he could be really good this year. Plus, there aren’t any playing time concerns like there are for Longoria or Jay Bruce.