Darin Erstad to the Astros

Unless you're in a very deep NL-only league and "grittiness" is a scoring category, this shouldn't affect your fantasy team except in one way:

Is it possible the Astros are dumb enough to give Erstad playing time over Michael Bourn, who is a big-time steals sleeper? The little guy stole 18 bases last year with only 132 plate appearances. He did pinch-run 35 times, so you have to take that into account, but still, the guy is fast.

Keep an eye on those crazy Astros this spring to see if they give in to the irresistible grittiness of Erstad, thus devaluing Bourn in your fantasy draft.

Good News / Bad News: Mark Prior to the Padres

Good News

• Prior is moving to a much more favorable park for pitchers. Last year, Petco Park ranked as the best pitchers' park and Wrigley was the second best hitters' park.
• He's originally from San Diego. Maybe banging tan San Diego girls instead of pale Chicago girls will keep Prior in good spirits. Of course, abstinence worked pretty well for Nuke LaLoosh.
• Prior has every incentive in the world to pitch his little heart out this year. He's on a one-year, incentive-laden deal. If he pitches anywhere near the level he did in 2003-2005 and shows the ability to stay healthy for more than a month, he'll be looking at some four-year, $40+ million contract offers next offseason.
• Prior heads to a better offensive team. Yes, the Padres are better offensively than the Cubs. Looking at road numbers (because it eliminates home park effects - although not unbalanced schedule effects), the Cubs ranked 28th in the majors in runs scored, while the Padres were tied for 6th (when you remove their one-game playoff).

Bad News

• Word is that Prior won't be ready to pitch in a real game until May. That's at least a month of a player using up a roster spot on your fantasy team with absolutely zero production.
• The NL West is a tougher division than the NL Central. The Giants are the only creampuff of the division and Colorado and Arizona are rough ballparks for pitchers.
• He is still Mark Prior. Talent-wise, this is good news, but injury-wise, this is very bad news. The man gets injured. That's just what he does. And, even though reports are saying he'll be ready in May, don't be surprised if that gets pushed back.
• The last time he actually did pitch in the majors (mid-2006), Prior was awful: 1-6, 7.21 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, and only 7.8 K/9 (not bad, but well below Prior's previous K/9 numbers). Is it possible he's just lost it?

Bottom Line

Prior is definitely worth a late-round gamble if you're willing to be patient and wait for him to come back. I wouldn't expect him to return to 2003 form, but 10 wins, a 3.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 130 K is not out of the question. I'll have an official projection for him and all other relevant fantasy players by the middle of February.

Draft Strategy - Lesson 2: The Last Round

Let's say you're planning on breaking up with your girlfriend because she's too clingy and has expensive taste. So, what do you do? Well, any rational person would first have one last night of crazy-kinky, no-holds-barred, can't-ever-look-the-other-person-in-the-eye-again sex. Right? What do you have to lose? With any luck, you'll never see her again, anyway.

That, my friends, is your last-round draft pick (or your last $1 guy for you auction types). Just as you plan on kicking that girl to the curb, chances are you'll drop that last-round guy at some point.

Or...maybe something clicks. Maybe you realize that that girl is just as perverted as you are and you fall in love. Or, in fantasy baseball terms, maybe you land the next superstar.

The point is, when it comes to that last pick, shoot for the moon. If you draft someone and he sucks, oh well. Just drop him.

Here are the players I took in the last round of my eight drafts for last season:

Conor Jackson, 1B - Not bad, but I dropped him pretty early on.

Chris B. Young, OF - The batting average (.237) hurt, but 32 HR and 27 SB from a 21st-rounder felt really, really, really good.

Kevin Millwood, SP - This is an excellent example of what not to do. Not sure what I was thinking.

Anthony Reyes, SP - This made sense in theory. But, I'm pretty sure my wife could go 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA in the NL Central.

Chris Iannetta, C - Again, I like the idea. If it wasn't for that incredibly talented Yorvit Torrealba...

Morgan Ensberg, 3B - If you're into stocks, think of this as a small-cap value pick, whereas Chris Young, for example, was a small-cap growth pick. Apparently, small growth picks are more effective than small value.

B.J. Upton, OF/2B/3B - I was saving this one for last. I was lucky (read: brilliant) enough to snag Upton in the last round of two drafts. My pleasure was so overwhelming that I took to calling him "B.J. effin' Upton" every time I checked the box scores and saw another 2/4, 1 HR, 3 RBI line. This is why you draft for upside in the last round.

Some ideas for 2008:
Adam Jones, OF - This year's Chris Young.

Homer Bailey, SP - He plays in the NL Central.

Alexi Casilla, 2B - Could steal a ton of bases and score a ton of runs.

Brandon Wood, 3B - Keep an eye on the SS/3B situation in Anaheim this spring.

Cameron Maybin, OF - Could pull a Hanley Ramirez.

Jon Lester, SP -Good pitcher with good run support.

Lastings Milledge, OF - Maybe a change of scenery will help.

Travis Buck, OF - Was good when he actually played in 2007.

Billy Butler, Hitter - The kid can hit. He just needs playing time.

Jair Jurrjens, SP - Damn, that name kicks ass.

Mike Napoli, C - Low average, but tons of power.

Jay Bruce, OF - Top prospect. Pure hitter.

Daric Barton, 1B - Probably won't provide much power, but he has killer hair.

Kelly Johnson, 2B - PECOTA liked him last year. Don't count him out.

Value Hunting

I highly recommend looking at as many mock drafts as you can before actually participating in your own draft. The key is to look for guys who stand out as good values at their draft positions and target them a half-round earlier. I looked at Mock Draft Central's recent twelve-team "Experts" Draft to look for some good values. It's a little tougher to find value picks in an experts draft because most of those guys have a pretty decent idea about what they're doing. However, I did find a few picks where I thought the owner got good value:

Travis Hafner (Pick #53, Round 5) - Yes, he was disappointing last year. Yes, he's probably past his prime. And, yes, he looks like Shrek. But with that lineup around him and with his power, he'll bounce back.

Eric Byrnes (Pick #89, Round 8) - How soon we forget a 21-HR, 50-SB season. It will almost undoubtedly go down as a career year, but he's probably still going to swipe at least 30, and I'd be surprised to see his HR total drop below 15. Add it up and that's pretty darn good for an 8th-round pick.

Jeremy Bonderman (Pick #143, Round 12) - He was bothered by injuries last year and posted his worst ERA (5.01) since his age-20 rookie season. (Can you believe he's still only 25?) Look for him to bounce back to his 8.5 K/9 rate of 2006 and, with that devastating lineup, don't be surprised when he tops 15 wins.

John Maine (Pick #157, Round 14) - It's amazing that Maine is able to fly under the radar this much considering he plays for the Mets. Look for 180-200 strikeouts and 15-17 wins from this 14th-rounder.

Jacoby Ellsbury (Pick #187, Round 16) - I was sure Ellsbury would be overrated coming off his postseason performance, but apparently not. The Red Sox will probably find a way to trade Coco Crisp, thus leaving room for Ellsbury to play center, get on base, rack up some steals, and score a ton of runs. That said, if you need power, look elsewhere.

There are some others, but I'm assuming they'll show up as good values in future mock drafts, so I'll save them for another time.

2008 Post-Hype Sleepers

What is a post-hype sleeper, you ask? It's a player who:

1. was too highly hyped going into last year,
2. disappointed his fantasy owners, and
3. is now undervalued due his disappointing performance.

J.J. Hardy would have been a prime example of a post-hype sleeper last year. He was being listed as a breakout candidate on a ton of lists before the 2006 season. He disappointed his owners (not his fault, really, as he was on the DL for most of the year) and was, subsequently, undervalued heading into 2007. He posted solid fantasy numbers that reminded fantasy owners why they liked him back in 2006.

Heading into the 2008 season, identifying a few post-hype sleepers could help you steal some value on Draft Day. Here are eight to keep your eye on:

• Howie Kendrick, 2B - He only played 88 games which means his .322 batting average didn't show up on the leader boards. Don't expect more than 15 HR and 15 SB but he's close to a lock for a .300+ batting average and that's worth something.
• Alex Gordon, 3B - Remember the 2006 Minor League Player of the Year? The next coming of George Brett? Right... He couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. But with a year of experience under his belt and with that kind of talent, you can bet he'll be better this year.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP - There couldn't have been more hype surrounding this guy. Sure, his 4.40 ERA was disappointing, but his Defense Independent Pitching Stat (DIPS) was closer to 4.00. With an 8.8 K/9 ratio and the run support of the Red Sox lineup, Daisuke will be a fantasy stud this year.
• Delmon Young, OF - Like Gordon, he has too much talent not to perform. Look for him to increase both his HR (13) and SB (10) totals by at least 5, while maintaining the .290-ish average.
• Felix Hernandez, SP - This is sort of a two-year story. People are starting to give up on him ever becoming a true ace. He's only 21! Has anyone given up on Joba Chamberlain (22), Tim Lincecum (23), or Clay Buchholz (23)? King Felix is still young and will continue to move toward Cy Young status.
• Rickie Weeks, 2B - Another two-year story. He'll probably never hit for a high average unless he has a B.J. Upton-like season of batting average luck. But he will hit homers and he will steal bases. Don't miss out.
• Matt Cain, SP - A 7-16 record? Wow, that sucks. Don't expect a ton of wins from Cain with that horrible Giants lineup, but do expect him to increase his K/9 rate from the disappointing 7.3 of last year to the 8.5 he posted in 2006.
• Jeremy Hermida, OF - Admit it, you forgot about him. In just 123 games last year, he hit 18 homers to go along with a .296 average. Hermida hit in the No. 3 spot during the last month of the 2007 season and with Miguel Cabrera gone, look for that move to be permanent and the RBI total to skyrocket.

Draft Strategy - Lesson 1: Strikeouts

When it comes to projecting pitchers' stats, chances are you're going to be way off. That's because there's so much more going on than just what the pitcher does. Wins are the most obvious example of this.

Last year, Justin Verlander won 19 games. Good stuff, right? Well, the Tiger offense was gracious enough to provide him with 7.3 runs per game that he started, compared with 5.5 runs per game over the course of the entire season. And what about their defense? Did they perform well for Verlander or were they busy dodging stray bullets from the mean streets of Detroit?

Strikeouts are the only pitching stat that is independent of the defense behind the pitcher and mostly independent of luck. If a pitcher strikes out a lot of batters one year, chances are he'll do something similar next year, whereas, you have no clue how lucky a pitcher will be when it comes to wins (and, to a lesser extent, ERA and WHIP).

Here's the point: you should always finish at or near the top in strikeouts in your league because you should have a really good idea about which pitchers will rack up the K's. And those pitchers have just as good of a chance (probably better) of winning games and posting a low ERA and WHIP.

With that said, here are the top starting pitchers by K/9 last year (min. 100 innings pitched). Some are obvious; some not so much.

1. Erik Bedard - 10.9


2. Scott Kazmir - 10.4


3. Jake Peavy - 9.7


4. Johan Santana - 9.7


5. A.J. Burnett - 9.6


6. Tim Lincecum - 9.2


7. Javier Vazquez - 8.9


8. Oliver Perez - 8.9


9. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 8.8


10. Josh Beckett - 8.7

Does this mean you should draft Oliver Perez before Josh Beckett? Of course not. What it means is that on Draft Day, when you're faced with the choice of Roy Halladay (5.6 K/9) or Daisuke Matsuzaka - both of whom are quality starting pitchers - choose Daisuke.