Good News / Bad News: Mark Prior to the Padres

Good News

• Prior is moving to a much more favorable park for pitchers. Last year, Petco Park ranked as the best pitchers' park and Wrigley was the second best hitters' park.
• He's originally from San Diego. Maybe banging tan San Diego girls instead of pale Chicago girls will keep Prior in good spirits. Of course, abstinence worked pretty well for Nuke LaLoosh.
• Prior has every incentive in the world to pitch his little heart out this year. He's on a one-year, incentive-laden deal. If he pitches anywhere near the level he did in 2003-2005 and shows the ability to stay healthy for more than a month, he'll be looking at some four-year, $40+ million contract offers next offseason.
• Prior heads to a better offensive team. Yes, the Padres are better offensively than the Cubs. Looking at road numbers (because it eliminates home park effects - although not unbalanced schedule effects), the Cubs ranked 28th in the majors in runs scored, while the Padres were tied for 6th (when you remove their one-game playoff).

Bad News

• Word is that Prior won't be ready to pitch in a real game until May. That's at least a month of a player using up a roster spot on your fantasy team with absolutely zero production.
• The NL West is a tougher division than the NL Central. The Giants are the only creampuff of the division and Colorado and Arizona are rough ballparks for pitchers.
• He is still Mark Prior. Talent-wise, this is good news, but injury-wise, this is very bad news. The man gets injured. That's just what he does. And, even though reports are saying he'll be ready in May, don't be surprised if that gets pushed back.
• The last time he actually did pitch in the majors (mid-2006), Prior was awful: 1-6, 7.21 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, and only 7.8 K/9 (not bad, but well below Prior's previous K/9 numbers). Is it possible he's just lost it?

Bottom Line

Prior is definitely worth a late-round gamble if you're willing to be patient and wait for him to come back. I wouldn't expect him to return to 2003 form, but 10 wins, a 3.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 130 K is not out of the question. I'll have an official projection for him and all other relevant fantasy players by the middle of February.