Thursday, December 13, 2007

2008 Post-Hype Sleepers

What is a post-hype sleeper, you ask? It's a player who:

  1. was too highly hyped going into last year,
  2. disappointed his fantasy owners, and
  3. is now undervalued due his disappointing performance.

J.J. Hardy would have been a prime example of a post-hype sleeper last year. He was being listed as a breakout candidate on a ton of lists before the 2006 season. He disappointed his owners (not his fault, really, as he was on the DL for most of the year) and was, subsequently, undervalued heading into 2007. He posted solid fantasy numbers that reminded fantasy owners why they liked him back in 2006.

Heading into the 2008 season, identifying a few post-hype sleepers could help you steal some value on Draft Day. Here are eight to keep your eye on:

  • Howie Kendrick, 2B - He only played 88 games which means his .322 batting average didn't show up on the leader boards. Don't expect more than 15 HR and 15 SB but he's close to a lock for a .300+ batting average and that's worth something.
  • Alex Gordon, 3B - Remember the 2006 Minor League Player of the Year? The next coming of George Brett? Right... He couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. But with a year of experience under his belt and with that kind of talent, you can bet he'll be better this year.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP - There couldn't have been more hype surrounding this guy. Sure, his 4.40 ERA was disappointing, but his Defense Independent Pitching Stat (DIPS) was closer to 4.00. With an 8.8 K/9 ratio and the run support of the Red Sox lineup, Daisuke will be a fantasy stud this year.
  • Delmon Young, OF - Like Gordon, he has too much talent not to perform. Look for him to increase both his HR (13) and SB (10) totals by at least 5, while maintaining the .290-ish average.
  • Felix Hernandez, SP - This is sort of a two-year story. People are starting to give up on him ever becoming a true ace. He's only 21! Has anyone given up on Joba Chamberlain (22), Tim Lincecum (23), or Clay Buchholz (23)? King Felix is still young and will continue to move toward Cy Young status.
  • Rickie Weeks, 2B - Another two-year story. He'll probably never hit for a high average unless he has a B.J. Upton-like season of batting average luck. But he will hit homers and he will steal bases. Don't miss out.
  • Matt Cain, SP - A 7-16 record? Wow, that sucks. Don't expect a ton of wins from Cain with that horrible Giants lineup, but do expect him to increase his K/9 rate from the disappointing 7.3 of last year to the 8.5 he posted in 2006.
  • Jeremy Hermida, OF - Admit it, you forgot about him. In just 123 games last year, he hit 18 homers to go along with a .296 average. Hermida hit in the No. 3 spot during the last month of the 2007 season and with Miguel Cabrera gone, look for that move to be permanent and the RBI total to skyrocket.

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