Top 10 - Starting Pitchers Who Will Decline

People love lists. They're easy to look at, quick to read, and just good old-fashioned fun. With the season almost halfway finished, here are the top ten pitchers whose performance I expect to decline significantly from current levels.

1. Gavin Floyd
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
2. Joe Saunders
Reason: 2.0 K/BB ratio; won't get a ton of run support
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Reason: Utter lack of control; poor second half last year
4. Aaron Cook
Reason: Few strikeouts; just plain lucky so far
5. Aaron Laffey
Reason: Can't strike a guy out to save his life
6. Armando Galarraga
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
7. Tim Hudson
Reason: Nothing in particular; collectively, his stats just don't support a 2.96 ERA
8. Ervin Santana
Reason: Just the possibility that he goes back to his head-case ways, but the strikeouts look very nice
9. John Danks
Reason: The K/BB ratio is ok, but not great - at least not 2.80 ERA great
10. Justin Duchscherer
Reason: Not quite enough strikeouts to justify a 1.99 ERA (love the low HR total, though)

Special mention: Edinson Volquez and Cliff Lee will certainly regress from their current other-worldly performances, but I still think they'll both be very good for the rest of the season, whereas the players mentioned above could actually hurt you in the second half.

Quick Hits

I took a week off, so there's lots of stuff to mention. Here's everything I can think of right now.

• Jeff Clement is back in the majors. He says he'll stick this time and I'm going to believe the kid. I would still rather have him for the rest of the season than the likes of Mike Napoli or Ramon Hernandez.
• In more Mariners news (I know you can't get enough), Felix Hernandez went down last night with an ankle injury. We should know more soon as to how long he'll be out, though the initial indication was that it's not serious.
• There is no timetable for Rafael Soriano to return. Hang onto Mike Gonzalez.
• Billy Butler is raking at AAA and should be back up sometime soon. Still, he may only be appropriate for AL-only or desperate teams.
• Our friend, Daisuke Matsuzaka was less than impressive in his return from the DL. The good news is that he said he felt fine. The bad news is that, despite feeling fine, he sucked. I wish I had taken my own advice and sold high on him.
• Eric Byrnes and his 0-for-5, 6 LOB lines are back from the DL. Aren't you excited?
• Some possible spot-starters this week: Aaron Laffey vs. SF (today); Oliver Perez vs. SEA (today); Jason Marquis vs. BAL (Thursday); Randy Wolf vs. SEA (Saturday). Slim pickins, huh?
• How about Jeff Baker? 11-for-28, 4 homers, 8 RBI over the last week. Plus, he has second base eligibility. I'm not optimistic that he'll keep it up and he may even lose playing time to the now-healthy Clint Barmes, but he's worth keeping an eye on.

Closer Alert: Mike Gonzalez

The Braves are expected to activate Mike Gonzalez from the DL today and it sounds like Bobby Cox sees him as the answer to the team's closing woes.

Quick Hits

• Max Scherzer is back in the minors. The D-Backs plan on stretching his arm out so that he can return as a starter when they need him. Be prepared to grab him when that time comes.
• The Braves placed Rafael Soriano on the DL again, although he'll be eligible to return on Saturday. I wouldn't count on it, though. In the meantime, Bobby Cox will employ a closer-by-committee strategy, which allowed Jeff Bennett to get the save on Saturday night.
• Ryan Doumit is turning into one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. Just sayin'.
• Chien-Ming Wang will miss a lot of time with a foot issue. They're saying it will be at least six weeks, but the entire season is a possibility.
• Xavier Nady has a shoulder sprain, but there are no immediate plans of DL-ing him.
• Travis Hafner's return from the DL is being delayed. Not that you're missing him much.
• Eric Byrnes expects to be back by June 23.
• Some upcoming spot-start possibilities: Andrew Miller @ Seattle (Today); Braden Looper vs. KC (Tuesday); Armando Galarraga @ SF (Wednesday); Kevin Slowey vs. Washington (Wednesday); Todd Wellemeyer vs. KC (Thursday); Jeff Suppan vs. Baltimore (Friday).
• #2 in the AL in homers? Grady Sizmore. Will it continue? No. But he will hit 30 for the first time.
• Andrew Miller is a better pitcher than his ERA and wins would indicate. His Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS) is 3.70, while his actual ERA sits at an inflated 5.22.
• The inverse of Miller is Gavin Floyd whose actual ERA (3.30) is far lower than his DIPS (5.30). If I'm picking one of these two young pitchers for the rest of the season, it's Miller.

(Possible) Closer Alert: Brandon Morrow

J.J. Putz left Wednesday's game with "elbow soreness." It's unclear how serious it is, but it wouldn't be shocking if he missed some time.

That means Brandon Morrow (who replaced Putz in yesterday's game and earned the save) is the most likely candidate to earn some save opportunities. Ryan Rowland-Smith is another possibility, but Morrow seems more likely with his 25 strikeouts in 18 innings.

If you have roster space, grab Morrow.

Down goes Pujols

Albert Pujols left yesterday's game with what looked like a calf injury. He flew back to St. Louis to have tests done. It doesn't sound good. It would be incredible if he avoided the DL. If he's out for an extended period (which is likely), this could be very damaging to your fantasy team.

Update: It's actually not as bad as first thought. Turns out, it's only a strain rather than a tear. They're saying he'll miss at least three weeks, but that's better than missing the whole season.

In defense of Matt Kemp

My man-crush on Matt Kemp is well-documented. But I've heard concerns about his strikeout rate and lack of power thus far. So, I thought I'd lay out the reasons why I still love me some Matt Kemp.

The Strikeout Rate
Yes, a strikeout every 3.8 plate appearances is concerning. I'd rather that he didn't do that. But, when you have the talents of Mr. Kemp, you can overcome faults such as this. Consider the following: Kemp ranks 6th in the majors in line drive rate (25.9%), indicating that he consistently makes solid contact (when he makes contact). His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .399 isn't completely unsustainable, though we should expect a little regression. Is his current .301 batting average sustainable at his current rate of striking out? Probably not. Will it dip into Adam Dunn Territory? No. In addition to hitting more line drives than Dunn, Kemp also has very good speed, allowing him to get a few infield hits that average runners wouldn't get. So, while my .302 projection may have been a tad lofty, I don't think Kemp will finish below .280.

The Lack of Power
Currently, Kemp is on pace for only 13 homers this season, and his slugging average sits at a lackluster .452. But he was a consistent .500+ slugger at almost every stop in the minors and showed that same pop last year with a .521 SLG and 10 homers in 311 plate appearances for the Dodgers. My 22-homer projection looks a little high right now, but I'm sure he'll hit more than 13. His current HR/flyball rate is only 9.6% (that's low), and I think it's reasonable to expect a 6'-2", 230-lb. guy who swings very hard to increase his homerun rate. I don't think he'll ever be a 40-homer guy, but I expect him to approach 20 this year and make a run at the low-30s in the coming years.

The Speed
I projected Kemp for only 19 steals, but he already has 11. This is good news as it puts him on pace for about 28. Even 25 (combined with 20 homers and a .290 average) makes Kemp a valuable five-category player.

So, yes, maybe I give Kemp a little too much credit, throwing around terms like "future superstar," but in the next year or two, I still believe he'll be putting up lines like this: 100 R; 30 HR; 110 RBI; 25 SB; .300 AVG. This year, you'll have to settle for: 80 R; 18 HR; 90 RBI; 25 SB; .290 AVG. Not bad for a tenth round pick, though, right?

Rickie Weeks to the DL

The Brewers placed Rickie Weeks on the DL with a sprained knee. He'll probably be out a couple of weeks.

Some second basemen who may be available in your league if you're "lucky":
Orlando Hudson
Luis Castillo
Alexi Casilla
Mark Ellis

Top 50 rankings for the rest of the season

Here are the top 50 players from this point on.




Thoughts?

Have I ranked upstarts like Hamilton, McLouth, and Quentin too high? Too low?

Should more pitchers (Volquez, Halladay, Kazmir, Sabathia) be included?

Am I still giving Matt Kemp more credit than he deserves?

Carlos Pena to the DL

The Rays placed first baseman Carlos Pena on the DL with a broken finger that he sustained in the first inning yesterday against the Red Sox on a pitch by Justin Masterson.

Considering Pena stayed in the game after breaking his finger (and homered and doubled), it doesn't sound overly serious. I would bet the Rays are just trying to be cautious and figured a couple weeks off wouldn't hurt Pena, who has been struggling for most of the season.

Clear your head, Carlos. Come back and hit like you did last season.

Homer Bailey to start for Reds tomorrow

Homer Bailey will start in place of the injured Josh Fogg tomorrow for the Reds.

Bailey was once a highly-regarded prospect, who has lost some of his luster as he's moved up the minor league ranks. After posting a 3.07 ERA in 67 1/3 AAA innings last year, Bailey was given a nine-start audition for the Reds late in the season. The results were not overly impressive: 5.76 ERA, 28 K, 28 BB in 45 1/3 innings.

This year, Bailey has been unspectacular in 12 starts at AAA, posting a 4.15 ERA with 55 K and 31 BB in 69 1/3 innings.

Should you own him? That all depends on your league format and your team. In an NL-only league, I'd say he's probably worth starting since he is a pretty talented kid with good stuff. In mixed-league formats, I would only start him if you're desperate. Let's say you had been starting Josh Fogg. That would be very sad, but Bailey will probably be an improvement. He doesn't have nearly the upside of fellow young guns like Volquez, Cueto, Kershaw, and Scherzer so don't get too excited.

Smoltz done for the season

Well, the comeback was short-lived. Smoltz is holding a press conference today to announce that he'll have season-ending shoulder surgery. It could even be career-ending, unfortunately.

This means Rafael Soriano appears to be the closer for the Braves. He should be owned.

MLB players' names and stats remain public information

The Supreme Court rejected Major League Baseball's appeal regarding the rights of fantasy baseball leagues to use players' names and statistics without paying a licensing fee.

MLB relied on a concept called "right of publicity" as a counter to fantasy websites' claims to their First Amendment right to use data that is readily available in the public domain.

The First Amendment won (as it almost always should, in my opinion).

Read the details here.

This is good news, by the way. This keeps the costs of running a fantasy website down, which keeps the supply high, which keeps the price down. I've only ever played free fantasy baseball because I'm a cheap bastard, and it would be very disappointing if it got to the point where mlb.com was the only site offering free fantasy baseball since their platform sucks.

David Ortiz to the DL

Remember yesterday when I said, "David Ortiz will undergo an MRI on his wrist today. He's listed as day-to-day and probably won't hit the DL, but may miss a few more days."?

Yeah...well, that MRI didn't go so well. It revealed a torn tendon. The Red Sox placed Ortiz on the DL and it sounds like he'll miss substantial time (at least a month). It doesn't sound good, and this is definitely the type of injury that lingers.

Quick Hits

• John Smoltz is scheduled to come off the DL for the Braves. It sounds like he'll be the closer pretty much right away, but it's tough to say for sure. Rafael Soriano blew his first save opportunity since coming off the DL last week.
• Carlos Gonzalez has now played three games for the A's and looks like he belongs in the majors. If you need an outfielder with decent power and good speed, go grab Gonzalez.
• Joba Chamberlain will make his debut as a starting pitcher Tuesday night for the Yankees. He'll be limited to 65-70 pitches, which decreases the likelihood of earning the win. Even still, the possibility that he'll strike out eight in five innings makes him worthy of starting on your fantasy team.
• David Ortiz will undergo an MRI on his wrist today. He's listed as day-to-day and probably won't hit the DL, but may miss a few more days.
• Ryan Zimmerman's shoulder is a little banged up. If I remember correctly, it was already questionable heading into the season. It doesn't sound great, and I wouldn't be shocked if Zimmerman landed on the DL.
• After 44 games, Victor Martinez still hasn't hit a homer. Apparently, the sore hamstring is a big factor.
• Shocker: Mark Prior will not pitch this season. Oh well.
• Travis Hafner is on the DL. He's been disappointing, hasn't he?
• Cody Ross hit 4 homers with 8 RBI last week. Worth a pickup? Only in NL-only leagues.
• My boy Ian Kinsler over the last month: 26 R; 5 HR; 20 RBI; 8 SB; .310 AVG. Sixth-most-valuable fantasy player.
• Best pitcher over the past month: Scott Kazmir. 5 wins, 38 K, 1.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 37 innings. Not bad.