In defense of Matt Kemp

My man-crush on Matt Kemp is well-documented. But I've heard concerns about his strikeout rate and lack of power thus far. So, I thought I'd lay out the reasons why I still love me some Matt Kemp.

The Strikeout Rate
Yes, a strikeout every 3.8 plate appearances is concerning. I'd rather that he didn't do that. But, when you have the talents of Mr. Kemp, you can overcome faults such as this. Consider the following: Kemp ranks 6th in the majors in line drive rate (25.9%), indicating that he consistently makes solid contact (when he makes contact). His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .399 isn't completely unsustainable, though we should expect a little regression. Is his current .301 batting average sustainable at his current rate of striking out? Probably not. Will it dip into Adam Dunn Territory? No. In addition to hitting more line drives than Dunn, Kemp also has very good speed, allowing him to get a few infield hits that average runners wouldn't get. So, while my .302 projection may have been a tad lofty, I don't think Kemp will finish below .280.

The Lack of Power
Currently, Kemp is on pace for only 13 homers this season, and his slugging average sits at a lackluster .452. But he was a consistent .500+ slugger at almost every stop in the minors and showed that same pop last year with a .521 SLG and 10 homers in 311 plate appearances for the Dodgers. My 22-homer projection looks a little high right now, but I'm sure he'll hit more than 13. His current HR/flyball rate is only 9.6% (that's low), and I think it's reasonable to expect a 6'-2", 230-lb. guy who swings very hard to increase his homerun rate. I don't think he'll ever be a 40-homer guy, but I expect him to approach 20 this year and make a run at the low-30s in the coming years.

The Speed
I projected Kemp for only 19 steals, but he already has 11. This is good news as it puts him on pace for about 28. Even 25 (combined with 20 homers and a .290 average) makes Kemp a valuable five-category player.

So, yes, maybe I give Kemp a little too much credit, throwing around terms like "future superstar," but in the next year or two, I still believe he'll be putting up lines like this: 100 R; 30 HR; 110 RBI; 25 SB; .300 AVG. This year, you'll have to settle for: 80 R; 18 HR; 90 RBI; 25 SB; .290 AVG. Not bad for a tenth round pick, though, right?