Mock Draft Results

I just participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central (great site). The format was that of a standard 5x5 roto Yahoo! league. That means: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, 5 bench spots. I picked 10th.

Here is my team with the round I chose each player in parentheses:

C Ryan Doumit (10)
1B Aubrey Huff (7)
2B Ian Kinsler (2)
3B Chris Davis (6)
SS Jimmy Rollins (1)
OF Matt Kemp (3)
OF Nick Markakis (4)
OF Jay Bruce (8)
Util Nelson Cruz (11)
Bn Cameron Maybin (20)
Bn Rickie Weeks (19)

SP Josh Beckett (5)
SP Joba Chamberlain (9)
SP Javier Vazquez (13)
SP Kevin Slowey (15)
SP Ted Lilly (17)
SP Jered Weaver (18)
RP Matt Capps (12)
RP Matt Lindstrom (14)
RP Joel Hanrahan (16)
RP George Sherrill (21)

Here's a link. My team is "Dogs." (Gay, I know.)

According to Mock Draft Central's projections, my team would finish first with 86 points, a full 9 points ahead of the second place finisher. According to my projections, this team would finish with 99.5 points. It makes sense that this number would be on the high side since I draft based on my projections. But it's nice to see that other projection systems seem to agree that I drafted a kick-ass team.

I feel like I got lucky by snagging both Rollins and Kinsler. I doubt that will normally happen with the 10th pick.

I really wanted Joey Votto in the 7th round but had to settle for Aubrey Huff. I shouldn't have waited so long for Votto.

Did I reach too far for Chris Davis? Maybe, but I needed power badly.

Joba in the 9th may be a reach, too, but I love his upside.

The value I got in the starting pitching department is what really sets my team apart from the rest. Vazquez, Slowey, Lilly, and Weaver represent a very deep rotation behind Beckett and Chamberlain.

I went the cheap closer route as I almost always do.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Second Base

Everything is subject to change. I love critical comments. Bring it.

Sleepers are highlighted in yellow. Players with high upside but who can't really be called sleepers are highlighted in green.

For an explanation of FV, see this post.




Notes:

• Chase Utley's projection reflects about 4 weeks of missed action due to injury. Obviously, if he's ready for Opening Day, he moves up this list significantly. As the season approaches, we should get updates on his condition and get a better idea of what his projection should look like.
• I still think Rickie Weeks can be a great fantasy player. He'll probably never hit for a high average, but he could hit 20 homers and steal 30 bases at some point. Even though Barmes ranks ahead of him, I'd probably rather take a chance on Weeks.
• Howie Kendrick just might hit .330. He's like Ichiro in that he makes solid contact every time and rarely draws walks. That said, I try not to overpay for batting average since it is very difficult to predict with much accuracy.
• If Alexi Casilla gets enough playing time, he could contribute 15 HR and 25 SB.
• I've heard some "experts" say that Theriot has surpising pop. Really? 7 HR in 1,264 major league at-bats? That said, if he hits at the top of the Cubs' order, Theriot could score a ton of runs and steal a ton of bases, all while hitting for a good average.

UPDATE: Silly me, I forgot to list Ian Stewart. I didn't feel like redoing the spreadsheet in Google docs, so I'll just say that he has a FV of -3.12 which places him between Polanco and Theriot. Playing time is, of course, a question with Atkins and Barmes blocking him at third and second, respectively. If, however, he manages to take playing time from one of those two, he could put up 20 homers. With second base eligibility, that's pretty attractive.

Also, I just noticed that Yunel Escobar didn't play a single game at second base last year, so remove his name. My bad!

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Base

Everything is subject to change. I love critical comments. Bring it.

Sleepers are highlighted in yellow. Players with high upside but who can't really be called sleepers are highlighted in green.

For an explanation of FV, see this post.

Fantasy Value (FV) Explained

So, I have a somewhat-new method of ranking players this year. The good news is that the statistic Fantasy Value (FV) now has meaning. Rather than just providing a way of ranking players, it actually tells you something about the contribution you can expect from that player. Here's the method, in brief. (If you have questions, comments, or gripes, feel free to express them in the comments.)

The league is assumed to be a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league with positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util.

Now, take Albert Pujols as an example. I basically ask the question: how many points would an offense consisting of Pujols, an average catcher, average second baseman, average third baseman, etc. score in this league? Or, more precisely, how many more points than a completely average team would this team score?

FV respresents those points. So, if a completely average offense would score 32.5 points (6.5 points times 5 categories), how many points above 32.5 does the Albert Pujols-plus-a-bunch-of-average-guys team score?

The answer it turns out is 7.1. So, you could theoretically draft Albert Pujols and then an average player at every other offensive position and expect your offense to provide 39.6 points.

As a side note, I like to aim for about 95 points in this kind of format. If you expect your offense and pitching to each contribute half of those points, that makes 47.5 total. In the Pujols example, you then only need to find 7.9 more points among the remainder of your picks. This is easier said than done, as many players provide negative FV.

If this all sounds too confusing, don't worry about it. Just know that I've given this a lot of thought and it makes sense.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

These rankings are based entirely on my projected stats for each player and position scarcity adjustments. The method I use is detailed here. Enjoy.