2008 Fantasy Rankings - Outfielders

These rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to change them based on new information or simply re-thinking old information. For a full explanation as to the methodology involved in producing these rankings, please see this post.





Notes:

• Why the top 69? Because I have the sense of humor of a 15-year-old boy.
• I just don't see Vlad stealing bases anymore. If he can manage 12 steals, he would move ahead of Sizemore and Crawford, but don't count on it.
• I like Francoeur more than most. He's young, he's big, and he plays every day (162 games played each of the past two years). In 2006, he hit 29 homers and 24 doubles. In 2007, he hit 19 homers and 42 doubles. I expect some of those doubles to convert back to homers and some general improvement.
• I'm assuming that Andre Ethier is the odd man out in the Dodgers outfield situation. So, these projections reflect Kemp, Jones, and Pierre getting the bulk of the playing time. You can see how much I adore that delightful Matt Kemp.
• Did you know that Gary Sheffield stole 22 bases last year? Could the 39-year-old Shef possibly duplicate that performance? My money's on "No." I gave him 11 steals, though, because I'm a nice guy.
• Based on line drive and BABIP rates, Hunter Pence will not hit .322 again.
• Jeremy Hermida. Post-hype sleeper. He's good and he'll be counted on to drive in runs with Miguel Cabrera gone.
• The Minor League Player of the Year in 2007, Jay Bruce, is going to be an incredible player...in a few years. This year, he'll be a very good player and the NL Rookie of the Year.
• Same for Justin Upton. As bright as his future looks, keep in mind that he's only 20 and will face some ups and downs.
• If it's getting a little later in the draft and you are short on steals, grab Michael Bourn. He's fast as a mofo and should get plenty of opportunities.
• Aaron Rowand sucks. San Francisco is tough on hitters. There is no one good in that lineup. There is really no reason to draft this guy any earlier than the 200th pick. Of course, some idiot will take him in the sixth or seventh round.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Second Base

Here are the first base rankings with projections and FV (Fantasy Value) included. There are some slight changes from the original post.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - First Base

Here are the first base rankings with projections and FV (Fantasy Value) included. There are some slight changes from the original post, including the addition of Mike Jacobs who I neglected originally.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Catcher

I had promised that I would re-post my rankings for each position with projections and Fantasy Value (FV) included. So, here are the catchers. For the comments, see the original post.

Fantasy Impact: Johan Santana to the Mets

I know this deal isn't official yet, but I can't imagine the Mets not reaching an agreement with the best pitcher in baseball - especially after their complete choke last year. I'm going to start with the real experts at Baseball Prospectus. Nate Silver, the man behind the PECOTA system, predicts a fairly sizeable increase in Santana's production with the Mets versus the Twins. Here's what PECOTA was predicting for Santana in Minnesota:

15 W, 230 K, 3.32 ERA

Compare that to what PECOTA says for a Shea Stadium Santana:

16 W, 239 K, 2.94 ERA

Silver doesn't include WHIP since he's not writing for the fantasy baseball crowd, but let's say it decreases from the 1.07 of last year back to the 1.00 Santana posted in 2006. The Mets have a slightly better defense than the Twins and the NL is just plain weaker than the AL.

By my system then, Santana would score a 19.28 FV (Fantasy Value) with the Twins, but a 24.71 with the Mets. For comparison purposes, Alex Rodriguez scores a 23.61, thus making Santana the most valuable fantasy player for 2008.

However, this is not my projection for him. I'll get that to you soon.

I think it's clear, though, that this trade moves Santana from an early- to mid-second rounder to a pretty clear first round pick. From there it all depends on 1) your projection for Santana, 2) how much you value pitchers vs. hitters, 3) how much you discount pitchers due to their variability year to year. Off the top of my head, I'd probably rank him in the 6-8 range.

Value Hunting #3

Newer "experts" mock draft over at Mock Draft Central. Here are some good values:

Ryan Zimmerman (Round 9, Pick 101) - I have Zimmerman down for 102 R, 29 HR, 104 RBI, 3 SB, .290 AVG. As I've said before, he could very well have a David-Wright-minus-the-steals-type season. The ninth round is too late for Zimmerman to be drafted.

Billy Wagner (Round 10, Pick 111) - I had a tough time finding good values among pitchers in this draft but Wagner stood out. He's a very good pitcher on a very good team and should rack up plenty of saves. Plus, his K/9 rate remains among the best in the game (10.5).

Matt Kemp (Round 11, Pick 123) - Currently, I have Kemp ranked 15th among outfielders and worthy of being picked in the first five or six rounds. I have him projected at 26 HR, 21 SB and a .302 batting average. The only threat here is that the Dodgers give too much playing time to Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier. They're not that stupid, are they?

Geovany Soto (Round 15, Pick 170) - I've already written a little bit about Soto, but let me just reinforce it: this guy has legit power. 29 HR in 128 games last year between AAA and AAAA (the National League). He'll easily outperform a good chunk of the catchers taken ahead of him.

Evan Longoria (Round 20, Pick 233) - I might orgasm if Longoria falls this low in any of my drafts. Of course, he won't because I will have already taken him five or six rounds earlier. I've projected Longoria to hit 28 HR in the middle of the Tampa order, leading to RBI and runs aplenty. Is that too optimistic? Possibly. But he is a rare talent who I think will adjust very quickly to major league pitching. He stands a good chance of being a top 50 player heading into 2009.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - First Base

Here are your 2008 MLB sleepers at first base (in order of sleeperishness):

Sleepers
1. James Loney - Generally regarded as a Mark Grace type (good batting average, little power), Loney changed some minds about that last year. In only 375 plate appearances last year, he slugged 15 homers and posted a .538 slugging average. Assuming the Dodgers realize now that giving young guys playing time is OK, Loney should get the bulk of the games at first base. Expect 20-25 HR, 80-95 RBI (depending on lineup spot) and a .300+ batting average.

2. Ryan Garko - With a .289/.359/.483 line last year, this guy is already a very good player. He got a late start in the majors and will be entering his age-27 season this year. He's a big slugger with a legitimate shot at 30 HR and 100 RBI. One problem here is that Victor Martinez steals some playing time from him at first base. If he can get enough plate appearances I could see him reaching the top ten or twelve among first basemen.

3. Conor Jackson - I was trying to decide between Jackson, Casey Kotchman, and Mike Jacobs for this final spot. I decided on Jackson because he's shown more power than Kotchman and he's younger than Jacobs. He hit 15 HR in 477 plate appearances last season and could easily reach the mid-20's this season. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) suggests that his .284 batting average last season was on the low side. I would expect to see him push .300 this season.

Semi-Sleeper
Joey Votto is being drafted a little too high to qualify as a sleeper, but he deserves a mention. The great thing here is that he is one of the few first basemen who will probably steal some bases. He had 23 steals in the minors in 2006 and 18 between AAA and the majors last season. Combine that with good power, and you've got yourself a valuable fantasy player.

Deep Sleeper
Steve Pearce went all the way from High A to a 23-game stint with the Pirates last season, hitting 31 HR along the way. Of course, Adam LaRoche is blocking him from getting consistent playing time, but if LaRoche gets hurt (not that we ever cheer for that) be ready to snag Pearce off the waiver wire.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Shortstops

These rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to change them based on new information or simply re-thinking old information. For a full explanation as to the methodology involved in producing these rankings, please see this post.




Notes:

• Reyes vs. Ramirez is a tough question and I think most people are probably coming down on the side of Ramirez because of the power. While the power-speed combination is valuable, Reyes' enormous number of steals is incredibly valuable. I think Ramirez will run a little less this year as he starts to think of himself as a slugger. His RBI projectio could change if it looks like he'll hit in the #3 spot rather than leadoff. But, for now, I'm giving Reyes the slight nod over Ramirez.
• There is a significant drop-off after the top three, but there are plenty of guys who will provide positive value.
• Tejada is a tough one to project as we don't know whether he's going to face disciplinary action for this whole lying-about-taking-steroids thing. I assumed he would basically play a full season. But stay alert for news on his status.
• Young may be getting overlooked a little bit. His days of 20+ HR appear to be over, but the guy is a consistent .300 hitter who has averaged 159 games played over the last six seasons.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Catchers

Judging by the keywords that are landing people on this site from search engines, there seems to be a high demand for sleeper picks. This makes sense as everyone wants to grab that diamond in the rough and use it as a pick-up line: "You know, I got B.J. Upton in the 21st round last year. Wanna make out?" That one gets my wife going every time.

My goal is to please and, thus, I will be starting a series of the top sleeper picks at each position. Everyone has a different definition of sleeper. Here's mine: a player who is generally ranked outside the top 200 (roughly) but stands a chance of being ranked in the top 100 heading into next season. Make sense? You've probably already jumped down to the list by this point, anyway, and I can say anything I want here. A.J. Pierzynski is a whiny little bitch. How's that? OK, here are the top three "sleepers" at catcher (in order of sleeperishness):

Sleepers
1. J.R. Towles - I mentioned before that he could have a Russell-Martin-like season. Let me explain why: his stats last year between three minor league stops and a 14-game stint in the majors: 114 G, 459 PA, 75 R, 12 HR, 74 RBI, 14 SB, .296 AVG. Notice I know how to bold things and I did just that to the SB total. Any time a catcher can give you some steals, you should be awfully excited.

The main risk here is that the Astros are idiots and play that beautiful Brad Ausmus too much. (I'm not gay or anything, but that is one fine-looking man.) Keep a close eye on the goings-on during Spring Training.

I have Towles projected to only play 100 games due to the Ausmus threat, but even still he ranks eighth among catchers with a projected line of: 49 R, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, .286 AVG. If he plays something in the neighborhood of 120-130 games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him rank as the fourth or fifth best catcher this season.

2. Carlos Ruiz - He played in 115 games last season and I expect to see him reach 130 this season. In 2006, he hit 19 HR in 127 games between AAA and the majors. Last season, he only hit 6 with the big club. Judging by the HR totals he put up in the minors, I'm going to say that was somewhat flukishly low. Add in the fact that he plays in a great hitters' park and I'm projecting 12 HR this year. He should also throw in a few steals (he had 6 last year and I'm projecting 5 this year).

I am a little concerned about his ability to hit for average. I've projected him at .274 compared to the .259 he posted last season. He really doesn't strike out much which leaves me with hope that he can raise his batting average.

3. The Arizona catchers - Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder are similar in that they both have good power but hit for a low average. The problem here is that they steal playing time from one another. Last year, they combined to hit 21 HR in a playing time split where Snyder got more of the plate appearances (377 to 233). I could see either one of these guys hitting 15+ HR with enough playing time, so keep an eye on the situation. You probably don't need to draft either one, but if it starts to look like one of them is going to get the bulk of the playing time, you may be able to grab him off the waiver wire.

For what it's worth, I'd prefer to see Montero play more because he's younger, has more upside, and has hit for a higher average in the minors.

Semi-Sleeper
I like Geovany Soto even more than any of these guys I've mentioned, but I just couldn't call him a sleeper. Enough people seem to be recognizing his potential and drafting accordingly. He has great power (29 HR in 128 games last season).

Deep Sleeper
Jeff Clement is going to be a very good player, but it's unclear how much playing time he's going to be able to get this year. Kenji Johjima is a very good player and the Mariners have no reason to sit him more than necessary, especially since they seem to want to compete this season. Injuries could create opportunities for Clement, but you can probably afford to skip him in the draft and snag him as a waiver wire pickup.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Third Basemen

These rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to change them based on new information or simply re-thinking old information. For a full explanation as to the methodology involved in producing these rankings, please see this post.

Due to popular demand, I will now be posting the positional rankings with full projections and Fantasy Value (FV) scores. This will enable you to get a better idea of why players rank where they do, as well as where the gaps in value exist.

I know I say this a lot, but I want to emphasize that these projections (and probably the rankings) will change. With that, here are your third basemen:



Notes:

• This is such a fun position because there are so many good players. There's a big drop-off after the Big Four, but even the next bunch of guys are plenty valuable.
• Ryan Braun is the source of much debate in the fantasy baseball world right now. You might be surprised to see him ranked ahead of Miguel Cabrera. I know I was. But I don't think my projections are unrealistic. Compare them to what Bill James is projecting: [158 G, 121 R, 46 HR, 122 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG] Using my valuation methodology, that would make him better than Alex Rodriguez. I'm not convinced he's going to keep up the pace he was on last year. I definitely think his batting average will take a dip as his line drive rate (16.3%) simply doesn't support the .324 average he posted last year. (That is, he got lucky.) I'm really looking forward to seeing what PECOTA projects for Braun.
• B.J. Upton may not qualify as a third baseman in all leagues.
• Ryan Zimmerman has a real shot at posting David Wright-like numbers, minus the steals. Remember, he's only 23 and he's heading to a more hitter-friendly ballpark (supposedly).
• Adrian Beltre gets overlooked so often. His only weakness is batting average. He's going to help your team in runs, homers, and RBI, and won't hurt you too badly in steals. If you miss out on the top couple tiers, grab Beltre in the mid-rounds.
• Evan Longoria is a great hitter, plain and simple. Last year's minor league stats: .299 AVG, 26 HR, 95 RBI in 136 games. I'd be shocked if he wasn't immediately placed in the heart of the Tampa order. On a side note, his alter-ego, Eva Longoria, is highly overrated. Don't believe the hype.
• The Fields-Encarnacion-Kouzmanoff-Reynolds quartet is enticing. It's not hard to imagine at least one of those four having a great season.

Five-Category Contributors

Using my valuation method, there were only eight position players who contributed a positive value in all five standard roto categories last year. They were:

Alex Rodriguez
David Wright
Jimmy Rollins
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Braun
Nick Markakis
Torii Hunter
Alex Rios

Here are the numbers you have to get to have positive value in every category:
86 R, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 12 SB, .284 BA

• It's pretty impressive that Ryan Braun was able to accumulate enough stats to make a positive contribution in every category considering he only played in 113 games. What the hell is this guy going to be able to accomplish in a full season?
• A lot of these guys are young. That's no coincidence as young players tend to steal more bases.
• I wouldn't be shocked to see Phillips and Hunter fall off this list in 2008 due to batting average issues. The others all stand a decent chance of contributing across the board again.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Second Basemen

These rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to change them based on new information or simply re-thinking old information. For a full explanation as to the methodology involved in producing these rankings, please see this post.

1. Chase Utley
2. Brandon Phillips
3. B.J. Upton
4. Robinson Cano
5. Brian Roberts
6. Ian Kinsler
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Howie Kendrick
9. Dan Uggla
10. Kelly Johnson
11. Jeff Kent
12. Placido Polanco
13. Aaron Hill
14. Orlando Hudson
15. Kaz Matsui
16. Julio Lugo
17. Mark Ellis
18. Ryan Theriot
19. Freddy Sanchez
20. Dustin Pedroia
21. Luis Castillo
22. Felipe Lopez
23. Ty Wigginton
24. Tadahito Iguchi
25. Brendan Harris

Notes:

• I care for Hill a great deal. He could have a breakout season.
• I may have mentioned I have a fantasy baseball man-crush on Utley. He's dreamy. In a gets-good-stats sort of way.
• One (or more) of Cano, Kinsler, Weeks, or Kendrick is going to have a season that will push them up into second round territory for 2009. My rankings reflect the likelihood of each.
• This position is getting deeper. You can wait a while and still get a pretty decent player.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - First Basemen

These rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to change them based on new information or simply re-thinking old information. For a full explanation as to the methodology involved in producing these rankings, please see this post.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Lance Berkman
6. Travis Hafner (may not qualify in all leagues)
7. Justin Morneau
8. Derrek Lee
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Carlos Guillen
11. Carlos Pena
12. Victor Martinez
13. Alex Gordon
14. Joey Votto
15. Nick Swisher
16. Todd Helton
17. Paul Konerko
18. Adam LaRoche
19. Conor Jackson
20. Casey Kotchman
21. Kevin Youkilis
22. Ryan Garko
23. James Loney
24. Carlos Delgado
25. Daric Barton

Notes:

• Chances are you're not going to use Carlos Guillen (SS) or Victor Martinez (C) at first base, but I thought I should include them anyway.
• If anyone is going to have a breakout season, it's Adrian Gonzalez. You could make a strong case for drafting him ahead of Lee.
• I'm not big on aging sluggers like Konerko and Delgado.
• Votto is pretty high partially because I have him down for 12 steals.
• What separates Pujols from Howard and Fielder is that you know Pujols is going to hit for a high average, whereas that's no guarantee with the other two. I even have him down for a modest .321, 11 point below his career batting average.

2008 Fantasy Rankings - Catcher

These rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to change them based on new information or simply re-thinking old information. For a full explanation as to the methodology involved in producing these rankings, please see this post.

1. Russell Martin
2. Victor Martinez
3. Joe Mauer
4. Jorge Posada
5. Brian McCann
6. Kenji Johjima
7. Geovany Soto
8. J.R. Towles
9. Carlos Ruiz
10. Ivan Rodriguez
11. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
12. Bengie Molina
13. Jason Varitek
14. Ryan Doumit
15. Ronny Paulino
16. Mike Napoli
17. A.J. Pierzynski
18. Ramon Hernandez
19. Kurt Suzuki
20. Paul Lo Duca
21. Johnny Estrada
22. Yorvit Torrealba
23. Josh Bard
24. Ramon Castro
25. Miguel Olivo


Notes:

• The difference between Martin and Martinez is not big. If you need a few extra steals, go with Martin. If you need some power, go with Martinez.
• Towles is a big question mark as the Astros aren't the brightest organization and may feel some need to play Brad Ausmus. I have Towles down for only 100 games played. If he gets more, he could have a Russell-Martin-in-2007-type season. I'll keep my ears open for news as to the Astros' plans.
• Napoli has a ton of power but he's never going to hit for a decent average. Plus, Jeff Mathis may steal some ABs from him.
• Soto is the next Victor Martinez. That said, he'll probably struggle at times this year.
• Ruiz is probably the biggest bargain at this point. He's going much later than he should in early mock drafts.

Methodology for Fantasy Rankings

This post will probably be long, tedious, and boring. But I think it's very important that my methodology for ranking fantasy players is laid out in full. The process below applies to a standard 12-team, mixed-league, 5x5 rotisserie league, although the rankings could be easily adjusted for a league with more or less than 12 teams and AL- or NL-only. With that said, here is the process:

1. Create projections for every relevant player.

I wish I could tell you that I had some magic formula, but my projections are probably no better (or worse) than anyone else’s. How do I come up with them, you ask? Well, I read the Bill James Handbook, I look at Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, and then I think long and hard. Basically, my projections can be boiled down to the following formula:

33% Bill James projections + 33% PECOTA projections + 34% my own little head

2. Find the historical average and standard deviation of each scoring category on a fantasy team basis.

I do this by using the last two seasons’ worth of data that I’ve collected by playing in fantasy leagues. That is 14 leagues, 12 teams per league for a total of 168 teams. I’m hesitant to go further than two years back for fear of changes in the way the game is played (fewer home runs now versus 2001, for example).

Here are the results:

3. Find how many standard deviations above average each player makes an otherwise average team in each category.

At this point, it would probably help to use an example. Let’s go with Victor Martinez since catcher is the only position where I’ve actually done projections so far. Here’s my preliminary projection for Martinez (subject to change):

145 G, 79 R, 23 HR, 105 RBI, 0 SB, .301 BA

Now, if Martinez was on a team with eight otherwise average fantasy players, here’s what that team’s stat line would look like:

764 R, 192 HR, 767 RBI, 97 SB, .286 BA

Now, we can calculate how many standard deviations above average that team is in each category. I usually multiply these by 10, just so they’re easier on the eyes. For Martinez’s “team,” here’s how it looks:

R: -0.83 HR: 0.54 RBI: 2.56 SB: -3.41 BA: 2.46

4. Add the standard deviations to arrive at Fantasy Value.

This is pretty simple. For Martinez’s “team,” it looks like this:

(-0.83) + 0.54 + 2.56 + (-3.41) + 2.46 = 1.32

At this point, you can rank every player based on his total projected Fantasy Value. This would be a fine place to stop if everyone played the same position. However, some positions are deeper than others and we have to take that into account with the next step.

5. Find Fantasy Value above a replacement-level player at that position.

So what makes someone a replacement-level player in fantasy baseball? Basically, it’s the best player you could reasonably expect to find available on the waiver wire. This is very difficult to determine most leagues have utility positions and bench spots. Based on my experience, I've assigned a certain number of players as generally being owned at each position. Yes, it's somewhat arbitrary, but that's just the way it goes sometimes.

The other complication is that if there is an extremely large drop-off at replacement-level, it could skew the results. To adjust for this somewhat, I use the average of the Fantasy Values of the three players closest to replacement-level at each position.

The replacement level at catcher turns out to be (-13.33). Thus, Victor Martinez’s Fantasy Value Above Replacement Player (FVARP) is 14.65 (1.32 - [-13.33]).

6. Rank players by FVARP.

There you go. Position-adjusted rankings.

Is it a perfect system? Of course not. There are plenty of flaws, mainly arising from the projections which are going to be wrong to some degree because I can’t see the future. Also, defining replacement-level is a tricky game and guaranteed to create some complications. I’m always open to suggestions on improving the system.

Overrated

Looking at the "experts" mock draft over at Fantasy Gameday, some players stuck out to me as being overrated. Here are a few of them:

Chase Utley (1st Round, Pick #3) - I have a fantasy baseball man-crush on Utley, but third overall strikes me as a bit too high. Sure, second base isn't as deep as some positions, but that doesn't warrant Utley being picked ahead of Reyes and probably not ahead of Pujols.

Curtis Granderson (2nd Round, Pick #15) - The guy who took Granderson here must be thinking that he's the next Soriano. I could see Granderson putting up some numbers that get him close to the #15 ranking in 2008 if everything goes right, but there were more sure things available at this point in the draft.

Fausto Carmona (6th Round, Pick #67) - He's a good pitcher on a good team but I just can't get excited about him due to his low K/9 rate (5.73). Truly good groundball pitchers like Carmona can be pretty successful, but at this point in the draft, I want a pitcher who can get some K's. (Felix Hernandez, John Smoltz, Chris Young, and Daisuke Matsuzaka were all still available.)

Aaron Rowand (8th Round, Pick #87) - Career year in 2007, moving from a hitters' park to a pitchers' park, injures himself by crashing into walls. This has disaster written all over it.

Orlando Cabrera (10th Round, Pick #116) - Maybe he'll hit a few more homers in Chicago than he did in Anaheim, but the rest of his numbers are going nowhere but down.

Value Hunting #2

Mock drafts are great for getting an idea of where players will be drafted and trying to spot some undervalued players. Here are some value picks I found in a twelve-team "experts" draft at Fantasy Gameday:

Carl Crawford (2nd Round, Pick #23) - His 2007 HR total (11) was a little disappointing for those of us expecting something closer to 20, but he steals 50 bases, hits .300, scores runs, and still has 20-HR potential. I have him as late first/early second rounder.

Joe Nathan (8th Round, Pick #86) - I don't usually like to take closers too early, but the 8th round is definitely not too early for one of the top closers in the game. If Santana leaves, it hurts his value slightly, but a guy like Nathan will find a way to get saves. His declining strikeout rate is a tad worrisome and keeps him from being the top fantasy closer.

Chad Billingsley (13th Round, Pick #155) - An 8.6 K/9 rate, an improved offense behind him, and a full season in the starting rotation spells 15 wins, a 3.50 ERA, and 190 K. Maybe more.

Jeremy Bonderman (14th Round, Pick #167) - I mentioned him in a previous Value Hunting post when he went 143rd overall. Obviously, I like him even more at 167th.

Tony Pena (16th Round, Pick #192) - He will almost certainly be the D-Backs' closer in 2008, following the trade of Jose Valverde. I wish he had a better K/9 rate (6.6) but he should get plenty of save opportunities behind Webb and Haren.

Oliver Perez (17th Round, Pick #197) - He'll probably never have another season like 2004, but if he keeps his K/9 rate high (8.8) and his walk rate reasonable like he did last year, there's no reason he can't win another 15 games and post a sub-4.00 ERA.

Which stats correlate the most with overall success?

I've played in 14 fantasy baseball leagues in the past two years and I use a lot of the data from those leagues to help determine strategy for future leagues. Recently, I put all 168 teams from those 14 leagues into one simulated rotisserie league. The teams were scored just as in any normal rotisserie league, earning 168 points for a first place finish in a category, down to 1 point for a last place finish, then adding up all their points and ranking them.

I thought it might be interesting to see how the teams' rankings in individual categories correlated with their overall ranking. Here are the correlation results (1.00 is perfect correlation) for hitting stats:

R .91
HR .77
RBI .85
SB .46
AVG .61

Runs, homers, and RBI are the leaders for one simple reason: they're highly correlated to one another. That is, if you draft a guy who hits a lot of homeruns, chances are he's also going to drive in a lot of runs and score a lot of runs.

While steals should probably never be completely neglected, they don't correlate well with any of the other categories, and thus, guys like Juan Pierre help you in one category while simultaneously dragging you down in all the others. This also points out why players like Grady Sizemore are so valuable - they get some steals but don't hurt you in the other counting categories.

I have a feeling that the correlation for batting average is artificially low due to people not paying enough attention to their team. They have good players who post good batting averages, so they do well in that category. But because they don't replace injured or crappy players quickly enough, they struggle in the counting categories and end up doing poorly overall.

Good News / Bad News: Nick Swisher to the White Sox

Good News:

• Swisher heads to a much more favorable ballpark for hitters. U.S. Cellular Field was the 4th best park in the majors for homeruns and 9th for overall offense. McAfee Coliseum, meanwhile, was 25th for homeruns and 29th for runs.
• The White Sox lineup should have significantly more pop than Oakland's. Depending on where Swisher hits in the order, that should mean either more runs or more RBI. If Ozzie Guillen was smart, he'd bat Swisher second to take advantage of that nice .381 OBP. Of course, Guillen has never, ever been accused of being "smart."
• Swisher is just 27 years old and, presumably, entering his prime. He has three years' worth of experience under his belt and should be ready to take his game to the next level, or whatever other cliche you like to use.

Bad News:

• Swisher will probably be playing center field for the White Sox. This isn't necessarily bad, but he did get 44 games at first base last year and another 6 at DH. Barring injuries to Konerko or Thome, Swisher probably won't get to rest his legs at first or DH much next year. Playing center field every day could wear him down over the course of the season.
• Swisher is one crazy mofo who fit in well in a relaxed Oakland clubhouse. I don't get the impression that the Chicago clubhouse is stiff, but it could be an adjustment for Swisher. Personally, I place very little importance on things like chemistry, but I just thought I'd mention it.
• Did I mention that Ozzie Guillen is an idiot? What if Ozzie decides he doesn't like the fact that Swisher hits for a low average and doesn't steal bases, so he banishes him to the eighth spot in the order? It's possible.

Bottom Line:

The move to Chicago definitely increases Swisher's fantasy value. I would look for him to get closer to his 35 HR total of 2006 than the 22 HR of 2007. Either the runs or RBI (possibly both) should increase too. The problem is still the batting average. You're still basically drafting Adam Dunn, but with fewer homers. Hopefully he's the third outfielder you draft.

First Rounders, Attempt #1

I haven't actually done any projections yet, but I thought it might be worthwhile to give some thoughts on what the first round of the draft should look like. I'm sure my first rounders will change in the coming months, but let's use this as a starting point.

First, let's look at what's happened in a couple "experts" mock drafts.

Over at Fantasy Gameday, the first round looked like this:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Chase Utley
4. Jose Reyes
5. Albert Pujols
6. Prince Fielder
7. David Wright
8. Matt Holliday
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. Ryan Howard
11. Miguel Cabrera
12. Alfonso Soriano

Thoughts:

• I love Chase Utley, but 3rd overall? Ahead of Reyes and Pujols? I don't know about that.
• Fielder and Howard put up pretty similar stats. How are we going to choose between the two?
• It seems that Cabrera trails behind Wright, probably due to the lack of steals.

Meanwhile, at Mock Draft Central, the order went like this:

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Albert Pujols
4. Jose Reyes
5. David Wright
6. Matt Holliday
7. Ryan Howard
8. Chase Utley
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Prince Fielder
12. Vladimir Guerrero

Thoughts:

• Ramirez #1 over A-Rod. Very interesting. He will steal a lot more bases than A-Rod and still has power, so it's certainly defensible.
• This time Howard went four spots ahead of Fielder! I'm going to have to analyze these two guys more closely and come up with an answer to this situation.
• Guerrero instead of Soriano with that last pick. Not sure I agree with that.

With that, here is my initial first round projection:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes
4. Albert Pujols
5. Chase Utley
6. David Wright
7. Jimmy Rollins
8. Matt Holliday
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Ryan Howard
11. Prince Fielder
12. Carl Crawford