Fantasy Impact: Johan Santana to the Mets

I know this deal isn't official yet, but I can't imagine the Mets not reaching an agreement with the best pitcher in baseball - especially after their complete choke last year. I'm going to start with the real experts at Baseball Prospectus. Nate Silver, the man behind the PECOTA system, predicts a fairly sizeable increase in Santana's production with the Mets versus the Twins. Here's what PECOTA was predicting for Santana in Minnesota:

15 W, 230 K, 3.32 ERA

Compare that to what PECOTA says for a Shea Stadium Santana:

16 W, 239 K, 2.94 ERA

Silver doesn't include WHIP since he's not writing for the fantasy baseball crowd, but let's say it decreases from the 1.07 of last year back to the 1.00 Santana posted in 2006. The Mets have a slightly better defense than the Twins and the NL is just plain weaker than the AL.

By my system then, Santana would score a 19.28 FV (Fantasy Value) with the Twins, but a 24.71 with the Mets. For comparison purposes, Alex Rodriguez scores a 23.61, thus making Santana the most valuable fantasy player for 2008.

However, this is not my projection for him. I'll get that to you soon.

I think it's clear, though, that this trade moves Santana from an early- to mid-second rounder to a pretty clear first round pick. From there it all depends on 1) your projection for Santana, 2) how much you value pitchers vs. hitters, 3) how much you discount pitchers due to their variability year to year. Off the top of my head, I'd probably rank him in the 6-8 range.