Value Hunting #2

Mock drafts are great for getting an idea of where players will be drafted and trying to spot some undervalued players. Here are some value picks I found in a twelve-team "experts" draft at Fantasy Gameday:

Carl Crawford (2nd Round, Pick #23) - His 2007 HR total (11) was a little disappointing for those of us expecting something closer to 20, but he steals 50 bases, hits .300, scores runs, and still has 20-HR potential. I have him as late first/early second rounder.

Joe Nathan (8th Round, Pick #86) - I don't usually like to take closers too early, but the 8th round is definitely not too early for one of the top closers in the game. If Santana leaves, it hurts his value slightly, but a guy like Nathan will find a way to get saves. His declining strikeout rate is a tad worrisome and keeps him from being the top fantasy closer.

Chad Billingsley (13th Round, Pick #155) - An 8.6 K/9 rate, an improved offense behind him, and a full season in the starting rotation spells 15 wins, a 3.50 ERA, and 190 K. Maybe more.

Jeremy Bonderman (14th Round, Pick #167) - I mentioned him in a previous Value Hunting post when he went 143rd overall. Obviously, I like him even more at 167th.

Tony Pena (16th Round, Pick #192) - He will almost certainly be the D-Backs' closer in 2008, following the trade of Jose Valverde. I wish he had a better K/9 rate (6.6) but he should get plenty of save opportunities behind Webb and Haren.

Oliver Perez (17th Round, Pick #197) - He'll probably never have another season like 2004, but if he keeps his K/9 rate high (8.8) and his walk rate reasonable like he did last year, there's no reason he can't win another 15 games and post a sub-4.00 ERA.