Max Scherzer - Your New Best Friend

Max Scherzer not only has bad-ass eyes, but is also a bad-ass on the mound. In his major league debut last night, Scherzer pitched 4 1/3 innings and didn't allow a baserunner. He struck out 7 of the 13 batters he faced. He's good. Real good.

I expect Scherzer to take Edgar Gonzalez's spot in the rotation very soon.

In ESPN leagues, Scherzer is already available and should be picked up yesterday.

In Yahoo leagues, he has been placed on waivers, meaning you need to put in a waiver request for him right now. Stop reading; go do it. Burn your #1 waiver priority. He's worth it. Think Tim Lincecum with run support.

Quad Injuries

Nobody seems to be stretching their quads before games.

Alex Rodriguez has hit the DL with a strained quad as will Troy Tulowitzki (probably). Personally, I think A-Rod just wanted some time off to get a pedicure and some botox. Tulowitzki probably just wants to crawl into a hole and hide from the world, based on the way he's played so far.

Some ideas for replacements who might be available on the waiver wire in your league (in order of priority):

3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff, Aubrey Huff, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen.

SS - Erick Aybar, Ryan Theriot, Jeff Keppinger, Jhonny Peralta.

Smoltz, Posada to the DL

For Smoltz, it's not serious. He'll only be out a couple weeks.

Posada could be a different story, though. Word is that it shouldn't be season-ending, but there could be some structural damage which could necessitate surgery. If it's just a strain, he would only miss a few weeks. My guess: something in between. You should prepare your team to be without Posada for at least a month - maybe more.

Minor League Watch

Here are a few minor leaguers (with some of their minor league stats) you should have your eye on for a potential call-up.

Jay Bruce (CIN) - .338 AVG; 4 HR; 6 SB in 19 games (AAA)
He's the complete package. It's just a matter of time, now.

Max Scherzer (ARI) - 1.17 ERA; 38 K; 3 B in 23 IP (AAA)
Scherzer will have a Tim Lincecum-like impact this year. Edgar Gonzalez's days are numbered.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 1.83 ERA; 23 K; 8 BB in 19.2 IP (AA)
The Dodgers are intentionally limiting Kershaw's innings so that he will still have something left in the tank for the stretch run (in the majors).

Homer Bailey (CIN) - 1.03 ERA; 16 K; 4 BB in 26.1 IP (AAA)
Between Volquez, Cueto, and Bailey, the future is bright for the Reds' rotation.

Nick Adenhart (LAA) - 1.17 ERA; 14 K; 12 BB in 23 IP (AAA)
The K/BB ratio is disturbing, but you can't argue with the end result (1.17 ERA). There's no immediate opportunity, though, as Lackey is due back in a couple weeks.

Jeff Clement (SEA) - .375 AVG; 5 HR; .500 OBP in 19 games (AAA)
The Mariners need to end the Jose Vidro experiment and let Johjima and Clement rotate between DH and catcher.


And some who have been a little disappointing:
Colby Rasmus (STL) - .224 AVG; 3 HR; 2 SB; .353 SLG in 21 games (AAA)
Bad average, little power. He'll probably turn it around, but I don't think the Cards will rush him.

Cameron Maybin (FLA) - .257 AVG; 3 HR; 4 SB; 31 K in 20 games (AA)
Showing a little power and some steals, but the 31 strikeouts in only 20 games is alarming.

Brandon Wood (LAA) - .263 AVG; 7 HR; 27 K in 18 games (AAA)
The power is there (.618 SLG), but Wood desperately needs to cut down on the strikeouts.

Francisco Liriano demoted to AAA

The Minnesota Star Tribune is reporting that Liriano will be sent to AAA Rochester following his awful 2/3 of an inning, 6-run performance yesterday.

At this point, there are probably better options than Liriano available on the waiver wire. If you're in a one-year mixed-league, it is safe to drop him. If it's a keeper or AL-only league, you have a tough decision to make. In deep leagues, I would lean toward hanging onto him. In more shallow leagues, you may not want to be patient with him.

Closer Alert: Brian Fuentes

Brian Fuentes challenged Manny Corpas to a game of table tennis last night. Winner take all (the closing duties for the Rockies). Corpas underestimated Fuentes' quick wrists and now we have a new closer in Colorado. Go pick him up.

Putz is back

J.J. Putz returned to the Mariners bullpen last night and recorded the save. Mark Lowe and anyone else who got save chances during Putz's absence are now worthless once again.

DIPS Leaders

One of my favorite pitching stats is DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistic) which judges a pitcher on only those things for which is he directly responsible (strikeouts, walks, homeruns). It assumes that, over time, most pitchers will give up the same number of hits on balls put in play. Here are the leaders so far this year (of those with at least 20 innings pitched), along with their K/9 rate to provide a better picture of their fantasy value.




Notes on a few of these pitchers:
Jair Jurrjens - His K/9 rate isn't overly exciting, but he does seem to be a pretty good pitcher. Plus, he has a bad-ass name. If you're in an NL-only league, he's a must-have. In a mixed league, I think he'll have decent value over the course of the season as the Braves should score plenty of runs.

Randy Wolf - I mentioned Wolf as a sleeper among starting pitchers before the season and I think his peformance will continue to reward his owners. He's a good strikeout pitcher in a great pitchers' park. What more could you ask for?

John Danks - I'm not buying into this. The K/9 rate isn't pretty and he pitches in a homerun park.

Edinson Volquez - I like Volquez and mentioned him as a sleeper before the season. He's a strikeout pitcher and that makes me happy, but I'm sure he'll struggle at times this year with his control. An increase in homeruns wouldn't be shocking, either. Again, I like him a lot, but expect some regression.

Nick Blackburn - The very low K/9 rate makes it difficult to think that Blackburn will continue to succeed at his current rate. He's not a bad pitcher, but I wouldn't be interested in owning him in a 12-team mixed league.

Brian Bannister - One of my favorite players. He's incredibly bright and spends a great deal of time studying "sabermetric" stats. He then uses the stats to help improve his pitching. This guy is an avid Baseball Prospectus reader. How beautiful is that? I believe that Bannister is one of those guys who will be able to succeed despite a low strikeout rate because he truly understands how to pitch. That said, he's never going to win a Cy Young award and his lack of strikeouts puts a cap on his fantasy value. But, if you're looking for a Greg Maddux-type pitcher who should post a low WHIP and a decent ERA, Bannister is a good option.

Ervin Santana - Has he finally gotten his head screwed on straight? In years past, Santana has been one of those guys who pitched 8 innings of 1-run baseball one start and then given up 8 runs in one inning the next start. So far this year, Santana has been much more consistent and posted great numbers. I'm sort of buying into this improvement. He has a history of being a decent strikeout pitcher and that should help. But proceed with caution as Santana may start giving up homers like a crazy man.

Jonathan Sanchez - He gets overlooked with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum representing the future for the Giants, but Sanchez is no slouch. He has always been a big-time strikeout pitcher, with the only question being his control. With 10 walks in only 20 innings, it appears that control will continue to be a question. But 26 strikeouts in 20 innings is tough to ignore. In summary; Positives: Strikeouts, good ballpark. Negatives: Walks, bad run support. Conclusion: Sanchez has some value in mixed leagues, but only if the back-end of your rotation is lacking.

Buy-Low Candidates

Here are some guys who are off to rough starts who you might be able to acquire at a discount:

Prince Fielder - With a .241 average and only one homer, the stalky young man is not living up to his owners' expectations. While he may come up short of 50 homers this year, Fielder is too good not to at least approach 40. If you'd like about 40 more homeruns over the course of the season, off up a trade to your local Prince owner.

Brandon Phillips - Despite hitting in the cleanup spot, Phillips has managed only 5 RBI to date. Assuming he stays in that place in the order (and I think he probably will), Phillips should start racking up RBI just by virtue of his position in the lineup.

Mark Teixeira - Another cleanup hitter who isn't doing a ton of cleaning up. Chipper Jones is an on-base machine and Teixeira has Francoeur protecting him, so there's no reason to think that he won't put up some big numbers in his contract year.

Victor Martinez - He was hurt for a little while, but seems fine now. His batting average is great (.368) - he just hasn't hit any homers. Hope that the Martinez owner is getting impatient and package your catcher with someone else to acquire him.

Robinson Cano - Too good of a hitter to struggle for long. Look for him to go on a tear.

C.C. Sabathia - As far as anyone can tell, Sabathia's problems are not injury-related. If that's the case, I fully expect him to right the ship and pitch like the C.C. that we all know and love. That said, I'd be a little cautious since there is a possibility that there is something wrong with him physically (or mentally, I suppose).

Justin Verlander - I'm not a huge Verlander fan, but I'm pretty sure he's better than he's shown so far. And I still think the Tigers' offense will turn things around and score a bunch of runs. Put him in the same boat as Sabathia, though, and be a little cautious in acquiring.

James Shields - Shields has been thoroughly unexciting, earning only one win, with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.48. The ERA is good, but with only one win, his owners may be overlooking (and, therefore, undervaluing) him.

Slow starts on which I would NOT be buying low (unless you can get them ridiculously cheap):
Rich Hill
Jose Reyes
David Ortiz
Russell Martin
Troy Tulowitzki
Hunter Pence
Gary Sheffield
Brad Hawpe
Dan Uggla
Andruw Jones

Early K/BB Ratio Leaders

It's very early to look at pitching stats too much, but K/BB ratio is one of the best indicators of a pitcher's probability of success. Here are the early K/BB leaders among starting pitchers.

• Yes, Johnny Cueto is very good. 24:1 K/BB ratio good? No. But good.
• Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Zambrano, and Roy Oswalt all look like pitchers who just happen to have started well. Maybe they'll be a little better than they normally are, but there's no reason to expect any of these guys to suddenly enter Johan Santana and Jake Peavy territory. It's only three starts, after all. Of those five, I would probably be most optimistic about Zambrano and Oswalt, simply because they have the most consistent track records.
• Wandy Rodriguez and Cliff Lee are both relatively young still and could be taking the next step forward in their careers. I wouldn't be surprised to see decent seasons out of both of these guys. I'd give Rodriguez a slight edge over Lee because he has a little more strikeout potential.
• Adam Wainwright and Boof Bonser are both young pitchers who struck out a lot of hitters in the minor leagues, but have struggled to replicate that success thus far in the majors. Because of their youth, I would be most excited about the possibility of these two having breakout seasons of the group listed above (other than Cueto).

Rich Hill - Do or Die Time

Due to Rich Hill's early struggles, Lou Piniella sent him to the bullpen for a week to get things straightened out. Hill is scheduled to start against the Pirates this Friday and, although it hasn't actually been said, it stands to reason that if Hill doesn't show significant improvement, he will lose his rotation spot.

Basically, here's how it will probably work:
Bad start on Friday: Jon Lieber replaces Hill in the rotation.
OK start on Friday: He gets another start or two.
Good start on Friday: Gets at least another two or three starts.

As someone who adamantly recommended Hill before the season, I would really like to see him perform well. The main concern is the strikeout-to-walk ratio. Last year, Hill had a 2.9 ratio. In 9 innings pitched this year, Hill has struck out 7 (not bad), but walked 7 (bad). I'm sure that's what the Cubs organization will be looking at this Friday. If Hill can pitch something like 6 innings with at least 4 strikeouts and 2 walks or fewer, he should earn himself another start.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Slow Starts

David Ortiz - Big Papi needs to spend a little less time admiring his homeruns and a little more time working on hitting breaking balls. I believe that Ortiz has entered the Mo Vaughn Zone. Sure, he'll still hit 30 homers and drive in 100 or so runs, but gone are the days of 54 homers and 137 RBI. Ortiz will still hold plenty of fantasy value, but he will no longer be among the elite first basemen.

Jose Reyes - This is mainly an injury concern. Reyes has hamstring issues which have caused him to miss a little playing and, important for fantasy players, have limited him to only one steal. The question is: will it limit him all year? I'm afraid the answer is probably yes. Does that mean Reyes will only steal 10 bases? No. But I definitely wouldn't expect 78 out of him again. Let's say more like 40-50. Not bad, but if you spent a first round pick on Reyes, expecting 70 steals, this could be very bad for your team. This situation certainly highlights the risks involved in drafting a player on the basis of his contribution in one category. If it works out, you win a category. If it doesn't, you're screwed.

Miguel Cabrera - Almost the entire Tigers' lineup is struggling, but since Miggy is a first-rounder, I decided to pick on him. There were a lot of stories about Cabrera getting into better shape this offseason, so maybe he just needs to start eating junk food and avoiding the gym again. Honestly, though, I think some of this has to do with adjusting to a new (more difficult) league and different pitchers. Cabrera is such a natural hitter, that I'm sure he'll get it figured out. I think this is a buy-low opportunity.

Troy Tulowitzki - I haven't heard any injury concerns here. Tulo is just sucking ass, plain and simple. It is fairly common for second-year players to face some issues as pitchers learn how to get them out. The question is whether Tulowitzki can adjust to the pitchers' adjustments. He has already earned a reputation as an old-school player who works hard to improve. I feel fairly confident that he'll make the necessary adjustments and return to form. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small decline in his numbers across the board versus last year.

Robinson Cano - Cano's a .300 hitter who just happens to be going through a rough patch. I would definitely be interested in buying low right now.

Hunter Pence - I'm a little concerned about Pence. Even in his outstanding rookie season last year, he struck out a lot. He's a free-swinger and it's quite possible that opposing pitchers have figured out how to exploit that. I wouldn't buy low here, but I also wouldn't panic too much if I owned him. I still think he'll be about a 20/20 guy, but I think the batting average is going to be ugly.

Andruw Jones - I thought Jones would rebound slightly from his disappointing 2007 season. So far, it's been even worse. He's striking out, he's not hitting line drives, and he doesn't have single homerun yet this year. I have no idea what happened to him, but I'm afraid he may be in store for another awful year. If you own Jones, give him another couple weeks before cutting bait, but I wouldn't be overly optimistic about him turning things around.

Closer Alert: Betancourt/Kobayashi

Joe Borowski is headed to the DL. That means that either Rafael Betancourt or Masa Kobayashi will take over the closer's role for the Indians.

The question is: which one? Betancourt has been one of the best relievers in baseball for the last four years and would seem to be the obvious choice.

However, Kobayashi has out-pitched Betancourt so far in 2008 and has experience as a closer in Japan, notching 180 saves over the last six seasons.

My guess is that Eric Wedge goes with Betancourt, but I'm going to keep a close eye on this situation. I've already picked up Betancourt in leagues where he was available, but I also grabbed Kobayashi in leagues where Betancourt was already taken.

By the way, I feel pretty confident that Borowski has lost the job for good, even if he is fully recovered in a couple weeks. He sucks.

Brewers Rotation

Yovani Gallardo is set to come off the DL later this week, meaning someone is going to lose their rotation spot. Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan are safe. That leaves Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, and Manny Parra. There has been some speculation that one of those three could be sent to the bullpen, but then the Brewers would have to release one of their veteran relievers.

My best guess is that Parra heads to AAA so that he can continue starting games until the Brewers need him again. I'm a big Parra fan and would be disappointed to see this happen.

Keep an eye on the situation - especially if you own any of the pitchers involved.

Evan Longoria

So, I was too busy (drinking) on Friday night to check on fantasy baseball. When I checked Saturday afternoon, I discovered that Longoria had been called up by the Rays after they placed Willie Aybar on the DL. I raced to each of my leagues and found that Longoria was still available in only one league. Disappointment.

Obviously, if he's still available in any of your leagues, grab him immediately. Unfortunately, though, someone has probably grabbed him by now.

Ever the optimist, I can look at it this way: If he does well, then I look smart for recommending him repeatedly. If he does poorly, then my fantasy opponents suffer, thus increasing my chances of winning. It's a win-win. (Or lose-lose, if you take the flip-side of those arguments.)

More Hot Starts - Real or Not Real?

Here are a few more hitters off to hot starts (I'll get to the pitchers soon.)

Justin Upton - If you've read this blog at all in the last few months, you know that I have a man-crush on Upton. I was projecting something like 20-20 for Upton and I called him my #1 sleeper. I feel pretty confident that he won't keep up his current homerun pace (sorry, no 65-homer season), but I think his lack of steals is sure to change. He's young and he's almost sure to struggle at times this season, but clearly Upton is ready to be a very good major league player. I would increase my 20-homer projection for him to more like 25-30 and I still think he'll swipe 20 bases even though he's sitting on zero right now.
Verdict: Real.

Mike Jacobs - I mentioned Jacobs as a potential sleeper due to his power, with some hesitation due to his potentially low batting average. Basically, nothing has changed. Jacobs has hit five homers already and is hitting .298. I expect the power to continue, but the average to decrease. He's a good player, but he's not going to suddenly become a superstar.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Corey Patterson - This is a yes and no situation. Is the speed for real? Yes. Patterson could easily steal 30 or more bases. Is the power for real? Kind of. He could hit 20-25 homers, but I would expect something more in the 15-20 range, which isn't bad. Is the low batting average for real? Yes. And that's the biggest problem with Patterson. Proceed with caution.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Bill Hall - Another batting average issue. The five homers are nice and remind us that Hall hit 35 two years ago. But, I would be very surprised if Hall topped 25 this year and when you combine that with the fact that he probably won't hit over .270, there's no reason to get overly excited. Now, if he still played shortstop, it might be a different story.
Verdict: Not Real.

Raul Ibanez - His early numbers are basically a result of two really good games. I think he'll hit 25-30 homers and drive in about 100 runs again, but his days among the AL leaders in homers and RBI are numbered. Even though I'm saying his start is not for real, that doesn't mean he's not a good fantasy contributor. Don't drop him, just don't think he's going to guide you to your league championship.
Verdict: Not Real.

Closer Alert: Manny Acosta

The Braves placed Rafael Soriano on the DL yesterday and Bobby Cox said that Manny Acosta would temporarily fill in for Soriano.

Peter Moylan is probably a better pitcher than Acosta (at least more proven), so it's possible that he'll steal a few opportunities, but Acosta is your best bet for saves in the near-term.

Hot Starts - For Real?

Here are some of the (non-obvious) fantasy hitters who have gotten off to hot starts and some analysis as to whether they're for real.



Xavier Nady - His appearance on this list is largely a result of one very good game in which he went 4-for-7 with 2 homers and 4 RBI. Nady is a decent player but he's never been able to stay healthy and his career-high in homers is 20. The most I think you could get out of Nady this year is 25 homers and 90 RBI, which isn't bad - but, that's the upside projection.
Verdict: Not Real.

Nate McLouth - Here's what McLouth has going for him: he's young (26), he has great speed (36-of-39 for steals in his career), and he has a little bit of pop (13 homers in only 329 at-bats last year). Basically, he's a younger version of Eric Byrnes. I like that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15-20 homers and 30-40 steals, albeit with a somewhat low batting average.
Verdict: Real.

Mark Reynolds - I listed Reynolds as my #10 sleeper before the season started and he hasn't given me any reason to think differently. I like the power a lot. The only thing that bothered me before the season was the possibility of Chad Tracy stealing playing time when he comes back. But, if Reynolds keeps hitting like this, the D-Backs won't be able to justify sitting him.
Verdict: Real.

Kosuke Fukudome - This is a tough one. I remember back in 2004, Kaz Matsui hit a homer in his first major league at-bat and everyone got excited. Fukudome has already displayed some heroics, but judging by his Japanese League stats, I'd say 25 homers, 10 steals, and a .300 average is his Upside. That's decent, but also unlikely. I think Fukudome is one of those guys who is a better real player than fantasy player due to his ability to draw walks. He's worth a spot on your roster, but I wouldn't get overly excited about his hot start. Also, keep in mind that he's never played more than 140 games in a season before, so fatigue could set in at the end of the year.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

A.J. Pierzynski - The most despised man in baseball now that Barry Bonds can't find a job. This is nothing more than a nice little run of games for A.J. He'll hit something like 12-18 homers like he always does. Nothing to get excited about here.
Verdict: Not Real.

Pat Burrell - Burrell has been a consistent 30-homer guy for a number of years now. The question is always the batting average. Is there any reason to think that at age 31 Burrell will somehow figure it out and increase his batting average significantly? No. Is there hope that he could see a power surge and hit 40 homers instead of his usual 30? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Jeff Keppinger - The positives for Keppinger: he's 28 and he's always been a .300 hitter at every place he's played. Unfortunately, there's not a whole lot more. He'll only steal a couple of bases and 12-15 homers is about his upside in the power department. But if you need a middle infielder and a little help in the batting average department, Keppinger should deliver.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Joe Crede - Wasn't he supposed to be traded by now? Crede could put together a season like he had in 2006 when he hit .283 with 30 homers and 94 RBI. But the rest of his career suggests that season was the anomaly. If he stays healthy (a big if), Crede could hit 20-25 homers, but I wouldn't expect a batting average over .270. There are plenty of good third basemen out there, so a 30-year-old Crede really isn't anything to get excited about.
Verdict: Not Real.

Gabe Kapler - I love Kapler because he looks like he could kick every other baseball player's ass. Anyone think he played in Japan last year to get the steroids out of his system so he wouldn't test positive? Yeah, me neither. As much as I like Kapler (I really do), there is absolutely nothing in his career numbers to suggest that he will be a fantasy contributor. Plus, when Mike Cameron gets back from his suspension, Kapler's playing time will decrease significantly.
Verdict: Not Real.

David Murphy - Murphy has a lot of things in his favor. He's 26, he's finally getting a chance to play regularly, and he plays in a good hitters' ballpark. That said, he's never been much of a power hitter and ten steals looks like about the most we could expect out of him. He's screams fourth outfielder to me, but this is his chance to prove me wrong.
Verdict: Not Real.

Francisco Rodriguez Injury

K-Rod left the game last night (after blowing a save) with a sore ankle. It's quite possible and even likely that he will hit the DL. It's probably not a serious injury, but it makes sense to let him get fully healed this early in the season rather than let the injury linger.

For fantasy purposes, this means that either Scot Shields or Justin Speier will have fantasy value over the next couple of weeks. The question is: which one? Shields has seniority and, in general, the Angels would prefer to use him as the closer over Speier. However, Shields just returned from the DL and pitched poorly last night after replacing Rodriguez. My money is on Shields, but it's close. Don't drop someone with legitimate value until you hear for sure who will get the gig. But, if you have someone with marginal value, say Jeremy Guthrie, go snag Shields.

Spot-Starting Against the Weak Teams

I am thoroughly convinced that the Giants' offense is going to be utterly pathetic this year. Look at the lineup they went with today against the Brewers, along with their career OPS in parentheses:

Roberts (.712)
Velez (Rookie - limited career #'s)
Winn (.768)
Molina (.718)
Rowand (.804)
Castillo (.677)
Aurilia (.768)
Bocock (Rookie - limited career #'s)

Only Rowand has a career OPS over .800 and he's on the wrong side of his career (that is, we should expect decline - not improvement). The others are all either getting a little old (Aurilia and Winn), never that good in the first place (Roberts, Molina, Castillo), or unproven rookies (Velez and Bocock).

The point is, you can take advantage of this by grabbing marginal pitchers who are going to face the Giants or other weak teams. If your league is deep enough that you can employ a strategy of picking up and dropping pitchers on a regular basis, this strategy can be very effective.

I would think about using this strategy with the Giants, Pirates, and Orioles. (I just singled out the Giants because I don't like them.) The Nationals, Marlins, and A's could be candidates, too, but I'd wait to see how their offenses pan out in the coming weeks.

Here are some upcoming matchups with these teams where you may be able to spot-start a pitcher:
April 5
Manny Parra vs. Giants
(You should probably own Parra, anyway)

April 6
Greg Maddux vs. Giants
Rick Vanden Hurk vs. Pirates

April 8
Randy Wolf vs. Giants
Jason Jennings vs. Orioles

Gary Sheffield Injury

Sheffield tore a tendon in his left ring finger yesterday, but says he's going to try to play through it. This sounds like the type of injury that could linger. He might avoid the DL for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he admits defeat at some point in the next few weeks and hits the DL. I would probably sit him today (assuming you have other decent options) and look for an update on his status tomorrow.

Johnny Cueto

He's good. Go pick him up.

Closer Alert: Mark Lowe

Pick up Mark Lowe, who will fill in for J.J. Putz for at least the next couple of weeks.

My Guys

I thought I should list my favorite picks for this year. These are the guys I've drafted most often this season and on whom my success depends. I've listed my actual projection for each of them, along with an "Upside" projection; that is, the numbers they'll reach if everything goes right. One note: I don't actually own Longoria on any teams, but I plan on getting him on as many teams as possible before he gets called up in a month or two, so I thought I should include him.

I plan on following the success of these guys all year. We'll see if I actually know anything, or if I'm full of shit.

Fantasy Notes

• Carlos Gomez is the Twins' starting center fielder and he ain't half bad. He stole two bases in his first game. If you're looking for some cheap steals, grab Gomez. He'll struggle at times, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him steal 40 bases.
• Jon Garland pitched eight innings in his Angels debut, allowing only one run on six hits and one walk. The problem? Zero strikeouts. Sure, you can be mildly successful without striking out batters, but Garland will not be a fantasy stud. Trust me.
• Pedro Martinez hurt his hamstring in his first start of the season. We'll have to wait and see what the verdict is, but I fully expect him to miss some time. Make other arrangements.
• If you're looking for a temporary closer, grab Jon Rauch, because Chad Cordero is having some shoulder issues. It doesn't sound like it's serious, as Manny Acta said they're not considering the DL at this point, but he should miss a little time.
• Kelly Johnson's knee is bothering him. He left Monday's game early.
• Kaz Matsui has an anal fissure. I don't know what that means, but it makes me giggle. Matsui probably feels differently.
• Michael Bourn is only 1-for-6 so far in this young season, but he does have three stolen bases already. How? He's drawn three walks, which is a great sign that Bourn understands that he needs to get on base. I'll go ahead and say right now that Bourn will trail only Jose Reyes in stolen bases this year.
• Victor Martinez is day-to-day and should avoid the DL. No need to worry too much.

Early Fantasy Standings

One small (and hopefully obvious) piece of advice: don't even look at the standings in your rotisserie league right now. Only 23 games have been played. We still have 2,407 to go. That means that less than 1% of the games have been played.

I wouldn't start worrying about the standings until 2-3 weeks into the season when about 10-15% of the games have been played. Even that might be early.

Of course, in head-to-head leagues, every win counts. But don't overreact if you lose the first week. Start worrying when you've lost the first three weeks by wide margins. Your team probably sucks.

Matt Kemp Watch 2008

Bad news out of L.A. last night. Joe Torre started Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre over Matt Kemp against right-hander Matt Cain. Kemp later replaced Pierre (and went 0-for-2, unfortunately) but it is extremely disconcerting to see Kemp start the game on the bench. It's hard for me to imagine that Torre would continue with this silliness, but I guess it's possible.

For now, here's the game plan: check to see whether the Dodgers are facing a righty or a lefty. If it's a lefty, Kemp must be in your lineup. If it's a righty, think about using another option (if you have a good one).

Be patient, though, as I have faith that Kemp will force Torre to play him every day or close to it once Torre sees hows utterly pathetic Pierre is.

Dodgers Lineup

Here's what the Dodgers went with yesterday against a lefty (Zito):

Furcal
Ethier
Kemp
Kent
Jones
Martin
Loney
DeWitt

Obviously, this bodes well for Kemp owners. If he hits in the #3 spot consistently, he should reach 100 RBI without any problem.

However, I think we'll see a slightly different lineup against a right-hander. We'll find out tonight when the Dodgers go against Matt Cain. My guess is that Loney will move up in the order, perhaps at the expense of Kemp. But, if Kemp hits third again tonight then all of his owners should rejoice.