Hot Starts - For Real?

Here are some of the (non-obvious) fantasy hitters who have gotten off to hot starts and some analysis as to whether they're for real.



Xavier Nady - His appearance on this list is largely a result of one very good game in which he went 4-for-7 with 2 homers and 4 RBI. Nady is a decent player but he's never been able to stay healthy and his career-high in homers is 20. The most I think you could get out of Nady this year is 25 homers and 90 RBI, which isn't bad - but, that's the upside projection.
Verdict: Not Real.

Nate McLouth - Here's what McLouth has going for him: he's young (26), he has great speed (36-of-39 for steals in his career), and he has a little bit of pop (13 homers in only 329 at-bats last year). Basically, he's a younger version of Eric Byrnes. I like that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15-20 homers and 30-40 steals, albeit with a somewhat low batting average.
Verdict: Real.

Mark Reynolds - I listed Reynolds as my #10 sleeper before the season started and he hasn't given me any reason to think differently. I like the power a lot. The only thing that bothered me before the season was the possibility of Chad Tracy stealing playing time when he comes back. But, if Reynolds keeps hitting like this, the D-Backs won't be able to justify sitting him.
Verdict: Real.

Kosuke Fukudome - This is a tough one. I remember back in 2004, Kaz Matsui hit a homer in his first major league at-bat and everyone got excited. Fukudome has already displayed some heroics, but judging by his Japanese League stats, I'd say 25 homers, 10 steals, and a .300 average is his Upside. That's decent, but also unlikely. I think Fukudome is one of those guys who is a better real player than fantasy player due to his ability to draw walks. He's worth a spot on your roster, but I wouldn't get overly excited about his hot start. Also, keep in mind that he's never played more than 140 games in a season before, so fatigue could set in at the end of the year.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

A.J. Pierzynski - The most despised man in baseball now that Barry Bonds can't find a job. This is nothing more than a nice little run of games for A.J. He'll hit something like 12-18 homers like he always does. Nothing to get excited about here.
Verdict: Not Real.

Pat Burrell - Burrell has been a consistent 30-homer guy for a number of years now. The question is always the batting average. Is there any reason to think that at age 31 Burrell will somehow figure it out and increase his batting average significantly? No. Is there hope that he could see a power surge and hit 40 homers instead of his usual 30? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Jeff Keppinger - The positives for Keppinger: he's 28 and he's always been a .300 hitter at every place he's played. Unfortunately, there's not a whole lot more. He'll only steal a couple of bases and 12-15 homers is about his upside in the power department. But if you need a middle infielder and a little help in the batting average department, Keppinger should deliver.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Joe Crede - Wasn't he supposed to be traded by now? Crede could put together a season like he had in 2006 when he hit .283 with 30 homers and 94 RBI. But the rest of his career suggests that season was the anomaly. If he stays healthy (a big if), Crede could hit 20-25 homers, but I wouldn't expect a batting average over .270. There are plenty of good third basemen out there, so a 30-year-old Crede really isn't anything to get excited about.
Verdict: Not Real.

Gabe Kapler - I love Kapler because he looks like he could kick every other baseball player's ass. Anyone think he played in Japan last year to get the steroids out of his system so he wouldn't test positive? Yeah, me neither. As much as I like Kapler (I really do), there is absolutely nothing in his career numbers to suggest that he will be a fantasy contributor. Plus, when Mike Cameron gets back from his suspension, Kapler's playing time will decrease significantly.
Verdict: Not Real.

David Murphy - Murphy has a lot of things in his favor. He's 26, he's finally getting a chance to play regularly, and he plays in a good hitters' ballpark. That said, he's never been much of a power hitter and ten steals looks like about the most we could expect out of him. He's screams fourth outfielder to me, but this is his chance to prove me wrong.
Verdict: Not Real.