(Belated) Closer Alert: Jonathan Broxton

I just got back from a vacation in Hawaii, so I'm a little behind on these things, but here's what you need to know:

Pick up Broxton.

Chances are, someome either already owned him or he's been picked up already. But, if not, get him. Takashi Saito will be sidelined for at least six weeks and Broxton is darn good. Lots of strikeouts, low ERA, and a bunch of saves.

Clay Buchholz coming back up

The Red Sox plan on recalling Clay Buchholz to start this Friday against those crazy Orioles. I say he's a must-start.

Sabathia to the Brewers: What it Means to You

I called C.C. Sabathia a buy-low candidate on April 18, and since then he has posted a 2.16 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings. (I'm not bragging. I also called Victor Martinez a buy-low candidate.) Now that he's apparently headed to the Brewers, I like him even more.

First, the Brewers score slightly more runs per game than the Indians (4.6 vs. 4.4). Plus, when you take into account that the Indians are clearly in sell-mode while the Brewers are in contend-mode, it's likely that the disparity will grow in the coming months.

Next, last year Jacobs Field had a park factor of 106 (over 100 favors hitters) while Miller Park posted a score of 102. Yes, it's a small difference, but those small differences add up.

Finally, I love the idea of Sabathia facing the opposing pitcher a couple times a game. Again, not a huge difference, but it will help his strikeout total a little.

It's probably too late to buy low on Sabathia at this point with other owners probably excited about this move also, but if you're currently an owner, hang onto him.

On a side note, I love what this trade means for Matt LaPorta. I would expect to see him in the Indians lineup next year at some point and he's a masher.

Closer Alert: Damaso Marte

Matt Capps will be out for a couple months. It's Marte's chance to shine.

Top 10 - Starting Pitchers Who Will Decline

People love lists. They're easy to look at, quick to read, and just good old-fashioned fun. With the season almost halfway finished, here are the top ten pitchers whose performance I expect to decline significantly from current levels.

1. Gavin Floyd
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
2. Joe Saunders
Reason: 2.0 K/BB ratio; won't get a ton of run support
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Reason: Utter lack of control; poor second half last year
4. Aaron Cook
Reason: Few strikeouts; just plain lucky so far
5. Aaron Laffey
Reason: Can't strike a guy out to save his life
6. Armando Galarraga
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
7. Tim Hudson
Reason: Nothing in particular; collectively, his stats just don't support a 2.96 ERA
8. Ervin Santana
Reason: Just the possibility that he goes back to his head-case ways, but the strikeouts look very nice
9. John Danks
Reason: The K/BB ratio is ok, but not great - at least not 2.80 ERA great
10. Justin Duchscherer
Reason: Not quite enough strikeouts to justify a 1.99 ERA (love the low HR total, though)

Special mention: Edinson Volquez and Cliff Lee will certainly regress from their current other-worldly performances, but I still think they'll both be very good for the rest of the season, whereas the players mentioned above could actually hurt you in the second half.

Quick Hits

I took a week off, so there's lots of stuff to mention. Here's everything I can think of right now.

• Jeff Clement is back in the majors. He says he'll stick this time and I'm going to believe the kid. I would still rather have him for the rest of the season than the likes of Mike Napoli or Ramon Hernandez.
• In more Mariners news (I know you can't get enough), Felix Hernandez went down last night with an ankle injury. We should know more soon as to how long he'll be out, though the initial indication was that it's not serious.
• There is no timetable for Rafael Soriano to return. Hang onto Mike Gonzalez.
• Billy Butler is raking at AAA and should be back up sometime soon. Still, he may only be appropriate for AL-only or desperate teams.
• Our friend, Daisuke Matsuzaka was less than impressive in his return from the DL. The good news is that he said he felt fine. The bad news is that, despite feeling fine, he sucked. I wish I had taken my own advice and sold high on him.
• Eric Byrnes and his 0-for-5, 6 LOB lines are back from the DL. Aren't you excited?
• Some possible spot-starters this week: Aaron Laffey vs. SF (today); Oliver Perez vs. SEA (today); Jason Marquis vs. BAL (Thursday); Randy Wolf vs. SEA (Saturday). Slim pickins, huh?
• How about Jeff Baker? 11-for-28, 4 homers, 8 RBI over the last week. Plus, he has second base eligibility. I'm not optimistic that he'll keep it up and he may even lose playing time to the now-healthy Clint Barmes, but he's worth keeping an eye on.

Closer Alert: Mike Gonzalez

The Braves are expected to activate Mike Gonzalez from the DL today and it sounds like Bobby Cox sees him as the answer to the team's closing woes.

Quick Hits

• Max Scherzer is back in the minors. The D-Backs plan on stretching his arm out so that he can return as a starter when they need him. Be prepared to grab him when that time comes.
• The Braves placed Rafael Soriano on the DL again, although he'll be eligible to return on Saturday. I wouldn't count on it, though. In the meantime, Bobby Cox will employ a closer-by-committee strategy, which allowed Jeff Bennett to get the save on Saturday night.
• Ryan Doumit is turning into one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. Just sayin'.
• Chien-Ming Wang will miss a lot of time with a foot issue. They're saying it will be at least six weeks, but the entire season is a possibility.
• Xavier Nady has a shoulder sprain, but there are no immediate plans of DL-ing him.
• Travis Hafner's return from the DL is being delayed. Not that you're missing him much.
• Eric Byrnes expects to be back by June 23.
• Some upcoming spot-start possibilities: Andrew Miller @ Seattle (Today); Braden Looper vs. KC (Tuesday); Armando Galarraga @ SF (Wednesday); Kevin Slowey vs. Washington (Wednesday); Todd Wellemeyer vs. KC (Thursday); Jeff Suppan vs. Baltimore (Friday).
• #2 in the AL in homers? Grady Sizmore. Will it continue? No. But he will hit 30 for the first time.
• Andrew Miller is a better pitcher than his ERA and wins would indicate. His Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS) is 3.70, while his actual ERA sits at an inflated 5.22.
• The inverse of Miller is Gavin Floyd whose actual ERA (3.30) is far lower than his DIPS (5.30). If I'm picking one of these two young pitchers for the rest of the season, it's Miller.

(Possible) Closer Alert: Brandon Morrow

J.J. Putz left Wednesday's game with "elbow soreness." It's unclear how serious it is, but it wouldn't be shocking if he missed some time.

That means Brandon Morrow (who replaced Putz in yesterday's game and earned the save) is the most likely candidate to earn some save opportunities. Ryan Rowland-Smith is another possibility, but Morrow seems more likely with his 25 strikeouts in 18 innings.

If you have roster space, grab Morrow.

Down goes Pujols

Albert Pujols left yesterday's game with what looked like a calf injury. He flew back to St. Louis to have tests done. It doesn't sound good. It would be incredible if he avoided the DL. If he's out for an extended period (which is likely), this could be very damaging to your fantasy team.

Update: It's actually not as bad as first thought. Turns out, it's only a strain rather than a tear. They're saying he'll miss at least three weeks, but that's better than missing the whole season.

In defense of Matt Kemp

My man-crush on Matt Kemp is well-documented. But I've heard concerns about his strikeout rate and lack of power thus far. So, I thought I'd lay out the reasons why I still love me some Matt Kemp.

The Strikeout Rate
Yes, a strikeout every 3.8 plate appearances is concerning. I'd rather that he didn't do that. But, when you have the talents of Mr. Kemp, you can overcome faults such as this. Consider the following: Kemp ranks 6th in the majors in line drive rate (25.9%), indicating that he consistently makes solid contact (when he makes contact). His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .399 isn't completely unsustainable, though we should expect a little regression. Is his current .301 batting average sustainable at his current rate of striking out? Probably not. Will it dip into Adam Dunn Territory? No. In addition to hitting more line drives than Dunn, Kemp also has very good speed, allowing him to get a few infield hits that average runners wouldn't get. So, while my .302 projection may have been a tad lofty, I don't think Kemp will finish below .280.

The Lack of Power
Currently, Kemp is on pace for only 13 homers this season, and his slugging average sits at a lackluster .452. But he was a consistent .500+ slugger at almost every stop in the minors and showed that same pop last year with a .521 SLG and 10 homers in 311 plate appearances for the Dodgers. My 22-homer projection looks a little high right now, but I'm sure he'll hit more than 13. His current HR/flyball rate is only 9.6% (that's low), and I think it's reasonable to expect a 6'-2", 230-lb. guy who swings very hard to increase his homerun rate. I don't think he'll ever be a 40-homer guy, but I expect him to approach 20 this year and make a run at the low-30s in the coming years.

The Speed
I projected Kemp for only 19 steals, but he already has 11. This is good news as it puts him on pace for about 28. Even 25 (combined with 20 homers and a .290 average) makes Kemp a valuable five-category player.

So, yes, maybe I give Kemp a little too much credit, throwing around terms like "future superstar," but in the next year or two, I still believe he'll be putting up lines like this: 100 R; 30 HR; 110 RBI; 25 SB; .300 AVG. This year, you'll have to settle for: 80 R; 18 HR; 90 RBI; 25 SB; .290 AVG. Not bad for a tenth round pick, though, right?

Rickie Weeks to the DL

The Brewers placed Rickie Weeks on the DL with a sprained knee. He'll probably be out a couple of weeks.

Some second basemen who may be available in your league if you're "lucky":
Orlando Hudson
Luis Castillo
Alexi Casilla
Mark Ellis

Top 50 rankings for the rest of the season

Here are the top 50 players from this point on.




Thoughts?

Have I ranked upstarts like Hamilton, McLouth, and Quentin too high? Too low?

Should more pitchers (Volquez, Halladay, Kazmir, Sabathia) be included?

Am I still giving Matt Kemp more credit than he deserves?

Carlos Pena to the DL

The Rays placed first baseman Carlos Pena on the DL with a broken finger that he sustained in the first inning yesterday against the Red Sox on a pitch by Justin Masterson.

Considering Pena stayed in the game after breaking his finger (and homered and doubled), it doesn't sound overly serious. I would bet the Rays are just trying to be cautious and figured a couple weeks off wouldn't hurt Pena, who has been struggling for most of the season.

Clear your head, Carlos. Come back and hit like you did last season.

Homer Bailey to start for Reds tomorrow

Homer Bailey will start in place of the injured Josh Fogg tomorrow for the Reds.

Bailey was once a highly-regarded prospect, who has lost some of his luster as he's moved up the minor league ranks. After posting a 3.07 ERA in 67 1/3 AAA innings last year, Bailey was given a nine-start audition for the Reds late in the season. The results were not overly impressive: 5.76 ERA, 28 K, 28 BB in 45 1/3 innings.

This year, Bailey has been unspectacular in 12 starts at AAA, posting a 4.15 ERA with 55 K and 31 BB in 69 1/3 innings.

Should you own him? That all depends on your league format and your team. In an NL-only league, I'd say he's probably worth starting since he is a pretty talented kid with good stuff. In mixed-league formats, I would only start him if you're desperate. Let's say you had been starting Josh Fogg. That would be very sad, but Bailey will probably be an improvement. He doesn't have nearly the upside of fellow young guns like Volquez, Cueto, Kershaw, and Scherzer so don't get too excited.

Smoltz done for the season

Well, the comeback was short-lived. Smoltz is holding a press conference today to announce that he'll have season-ending shoulder surgery. It could even be career-ending, unfortunately.

This means Rafael Soriano appears to be the closer for the Braves. He should be owned.

MLB players' names and stats remain public information

The Supreme Court rejected Major League Baseball's appeal regarding the rights of fantasy baseball leagues to use players' names and statistics without paying a licensing fee.

MLB relied on a concept called "right of publicity" as a counter to fantasy websites' claims to their First Amendment right to use data that is readily available in the public domain.

The First Amendment won (as it almost always should, in my opinion).

Read the details here.

This is good news, by the way. This keeps the costs of running a fantasy website down, which keeps the supply high, which keeps the price down. I've only ever played free fantasy baseball because I'm a cheap bastard, and it would be very disappointing if it got to the point where mlb.com was the only site offering free fantasy baseball since their platform sucks.

David Ortiz to the DL

Remember yesterday when I said, "David Ortiz will undergo an MRI on his wrist today. He's listed as day-to-day and probably won't hit the DL, but may miss a few more days."?

Yeah...well, that MRI didn't go so well. It revealed a torn tendon. The Red Sox placed Ortiz on the DL and it sounds like he'll miss substantial time (at least a month). It doesn't sound good, and this is definitely the type of injury that lingers.

Quick Hits

• John Smoltz is scheduled to come off the DL for the Braves. It sounds like he'll be the closer pretty much right away, but it's tough to say for sure. Rafael Soriano blew his first save opportunity since coming off the DL last week.
• Carlos Gonzalez has now played three games for the A's and looks like he belongs in the majors. If you need an outfielder with decent power and good speed, go grab Gonzalez.
• Joba Chamberlain will make his debut as a starting pitcher Tuesday night for the Yankees. He'll be limited to 65-70 pitches, which decreases the likelihood of earning the win. Even still, the possibility that he'll strike out eight in five innings makes him worthy of starting on your fantasy team.
• David Ortiz will undergo an MRI on his wrist today. He's listed as day-to-day and probably won't hit the DL, but may miss a few more days.
• Ryan Zimmerman's shoulder is a little banged up. If I remember correctly, it was already questionable heading into the season. It doesn't sound great, and I wouldn't be shocked if Zimmerman landed on the DL.
• After 44 games, Victor Martinez still hasn't hit a homer. Apparently, the sore hamstring is a big factor.
• Shocker: Mark Prior will not pitch this season. Oh well.
• Travis Hafner is on the DL. He's been disappointing, hasn't he?
• Cody Ross hit 4 homers with 8 RBI last week. Worth a pickup? Only in NL-only leagues.
• My boy Ian Kinsler over the last month: 26 R; 5 HR; 20 RBI; 8 SB; .310 AVG. Sixth-most-valuable fantasy player.
• Best pitcher over the past month: Scott Kazmir. 5 wins, 38 K, 1.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 37 innings. Not bad.

Billy Butler optioned to AAA

The Royals optioned the struggling Butler to AAA Omaha yesterday to work on his hitting. He was hitting .263/.330/.339 with only one homer. Chances are you don't own Butler anyway, but it's worth following his progress, as he will be a valuable fantasy player at some point. Just not quite yet.

Closer Alert: Dan Wheeler

Troy Percival left yesterday's game with an injury. We'll find out more with the MRI results today, but it looks like Percival will miss a little time at least.

Dan Wheeler finished the game and earned the save for the Rays and appears to be the front-runner for save opportunities. Al Reyes could get some chances, too, but my money's on Wheeler.

UPDATE: The Rays placed Percival on the 15-day DL. Joe Maddon was reluctant to name a closer, so it stands to reason that Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler will both get opportunities. They're both very decent pitchers who should get the job done.

Jay Mother-Freakin' Bruce

I love Jay Bruce. There, I said it. 3-for-3, 2 walks, 2 runs, 2 RBI and a stolen base in his major league debut.

Now, for the "but."

But, keep in mind, he's a rookie. He's 21 years old. There will be bumps in the road. Ryan Braun's rookie season may have gotten our expectations a little out of whack. Braun's 2007 was a once-in-a-lifetime rookie season. (Well, maybe twice in a lifetime. Pujols' 2001 was pretty awesome, too.)

So, keep your expectations in check. If someone offers you Jimmy Rollins for Jay Bruce, take it. My projection for Bruce this season:

65 R; 16 HR; 60 RBI; 12 SB; .290 AVG

Daisuke Matsuzaka injury

Our friend, Daisuke, left yesterday's game after four innings with what was called "shoulder fatigue" (although he was seen grabbing his lower back). It doesn't sound serious, but he'll probably skip his next start.

Hopefully, you sold high on Daisuke last week. If not, now probably wouldn't be the best time to try.

Gavin Floyd

I noticed a lot of people picking up Gavin Floyd in my leagues lately, which makes me happy. His 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP have duped people into thinking he's a good pitcher. Yes, he has good stuff and could be a good pitcher at some point, but right now he's walking more batters (27) than he's striking out (25). That ERA and WHIP are going up, my friends. Beware.

UPDATE: Well, Floyd went and proved me wrong today (kind of). As a regular reader of this blog, he was annoyed to see me picking on his K/BB rate, so he posted 7 K with o BB today in six innings against the Indians. However, his ERA and WHIP did increase, so I was right, but for the wrong reasons.

Clay Buchholz to pitch at AAA for now

With Bartolo Colon pitching so well, the Red Sox have more than enough starting pitching. For now, it looks like Clay Buchholz is the odd man out.

Buchholz has been on the DL with a broken finger nail, but when he comes off the DL, he'll be pitching for Pawtucket. It's hard to imagine Boston allowing a talent like Buchholz to stay in the minors for long, so at the very least, we'll probably see him coming out of the Boston bullpen in the near future. In the long run, I'm sure someone (I'm looking at you, Bartolo) will get hurt and Buchholz will regain his rotation spot.

I can't help but wonder if things would be a little different had Jon Lester not thrown a no-hitter so recently. I really don't know, but I will say that Buchholz is the superior pitcher, 2008 ERAs be damned.

Matt Holliday on the DL

15-day with a strained hamstring. Nothing to be too worried about but it sucks having to replace a guy like Holliday - even if it's only two weeks.

Jay Bruce gets the call

The Reds will bring Jay Bruce up to the big club today.

GM Walt Jocketty said, "When Jay comes up, he'll play a lot. We wouldn't bring him up and not play him."

This means that Bruce should be on your team. He will play and play well.

Clayton Kershaw Watch

There is considerable speculation that Dodgers phenom Clayton Kershaw (what an awesome name) will be called up to start for the big club on Tuesday. If that's the case, I would grab Kershaw if at all possible. He's not yet available in the Yahoo! game but he is available over at ESPN.

The positives:

• Career 11.7 K/9 rate in the minors
• Has allowed only 9 homers in 202 1/3 career minor league innings
• Has been protected by the organization, with strict innings/pitches limitations
• Most major leaguers have little to no experience facing him

The negatives:

• High career minor league BB/9 rate (3.9)
• The Dodgers will keep him on a strict innings/pitches limitation, meaning he may be pulled out of games early, thus limiting his potential for wins
• The move could be temporary as Jason Schmidt has been making rehab starts lately

The positives outweigh the negatives. Would I use a #1 waiver priority on Kershaw? Yes, yes I would. But keep in mind that he is young (20) and it will be a slightly bumpy ride. But I'm a sucker for anyone who can get you a strikeout per inning (which he will).

UPDATE: As you probably know by now, Kershaw started on Sunday for the Dodgers and pitched very well: 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.

Line Drive Rate and BABIP - Who's Getting Lucky?

In general, a player's batting average on balls in play should be about .120 higher than his line drive rate. If the difference is greater than that, he's getting lucky. If it's lower, he's getting unlucky. With that introduction, let's take a look at some notable names who are getting lucky in the batting average department.




This is not a comprehensive list. I just picked some names that stood out as key fantasy contributors. You can consider these players over-valued right now because their batting averages are artificially high thanks to a lucky BABIP number. I'm not saying you should run out and trade these players immediately. Just know that you can expect to see their batting averages dip in the coming months.

Interesting to see both Upton boys on the list. Also, B.J. Upton led the majors in BABIP last year (.393) with only a .196 line drive rate. Maybe he's one of those guys who finds a way to beat the odds, possibly because of his speed.

Another interesting note: Matt Kemp is currently leading the majors in BABIP (.412), but the amazing thing is that his line drive rate (.299) supports that BABIP. Kemp is a going to be a superstar.

Closer Alert: Salomon Torres

Our friend, Ned Yost, says that Salomon Torres will get the bulk of the save opportunities while Eric Gagne is out. The length of Gagne's absence is very much up in the air, with the range of possbilities spanning one week up to the entire season. Either way, grab Torres.

Dan Uggla - What's the Deal?

Before the season I projected the following line for Dan Uggla:
96 R, 27 HR, 81 RBI, 2 SB, .258 AVG

Currently, he's on pace for the following line:
130 R, 50 HR, 115 RBI, 7 SB, .323 AVG

Two things are clear:

1. I misunderestimated (to quote our great president) Uggla's ability.
2. He can't keep up this pace.

So, what should we expect from Uggla from this point on? Let's tackle each category.

Runs: He has consistently been hitting in the #5 spot in the order, so it's difficult to imagine that the 130-run pace is even close to sustainable. I still think my 96-run projection makes sense, so let's say he scores 60 more runs.

Homeruns: Uggla hit 31 last year and seems to have taken a leap that will allow him to surpass that number. However, it's hard to see him hitting 40. I'm going to say 35 for the season, meaning 21 more homers.

RBI: With Hermida, Ramirez, and Jacobs getting on base in front of him, Uggla should continue to rack up RBI. The 115-RBI pace that he's set should slow down a little as Uggla cools off, though. Let's say 105 for the season, meaning 73 more RBI.

SB: Uggla has already matched his stolen base total from last year with a big two. He stole 6 in his rookie season, so let's say he matches that with 4 more.

AVG: This is the big one. If Uggla can maintain a .300+ average, he'll be in Chase Utley territory among second basemen. He hit .282 in his rookie season and .245 last year, and was a career .276 hitter in the minors, so .323 seems unsustainable. Here's the most disturbing part. Take a look at Uggla's line drive rate and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the past three years:

The general rule is that the BABIP should be about .120 higher than the line drive rate. You can see that Uggla's BABIP was .141 higher in 2006 and .123 higher last year. This year? .217 higher. Based on that, it's hard to see Uggla hitting better than about .260-.270 the rest of the way. He'll probably end up with an average around .280-.285 for the season, thanks to his hot (lucky) start.

So, here's what Uggla should get you from this point on:
60 R, 21 HR, 73 RBI, 4 SB, .265 AVG

Where does that place him among other second basemen? I'd say Uggla ranks about sixth, behind Utley, Upton, Phillips, Roberts, and Kinsler and just ahead of Cano.

Chone Figgins to return

Mike Scioscia is saying that Chone Figgins will be back in the starting lineup tonight after spending some time on the DL. Adjust your lineups accordingly.

The Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Players in 2010

UPDATE: I haven't looked at this blog in almost a year. I noticed today that there are a bunch of comments on this post, basically bashing it for being so bad. What I think a lot of people aren't noticing is that I posted this in MAY 2008. Now that 2010 is here, those searching Google for "2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings" are stumbling upon this post. So, yes, it looks awful. But when you consider that I posted it two years ago, I'm actually mildly proud of it. Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, and Ian Kinsler are incredibly good calls. Obviously, Alex Gordon, Clay Buchholz, and Alex Rios are incredibly bad calls, but you have to take the bad with the good. Once again, MAY 2008. That is all.

UPDATE #2: If anyone actually cares, I posted my CURRENT Top 25 for 2010.

Part of the reason I love fantasy baseball so much is because I enjoy looking forward to the future. My two main daily activities are investing and fantasy baseball which are both forward-looking. Due to my obsession with projecting future outcomes, I'm already looking ahead to next season and even the season after that! So, just for fun, here are the top 25 picks in 2010. Enjoy.

1. Hanley Ramirez (SS)
2. David Wright (3B)
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
4. Miguel Cabrera (OF/1B) - Leyland's already given up on him at third base.
5. Albert Pujols (1B)
6. Matt Kemp (OF) - Yes, he's going to be that good.
7. B.J. Upton (OF) - Think Alfonso Soriano in his prime.
8. Jose Reyes (SS)
9. Johan Santana (SP)
10. Ryan Braun (OF)
11. Justin Upton (OF) - Top 100 in 2009, top 20 in 2010, eventually #1 overall.
12. Prince Fielder (1B) - Slow start this year, but he'll be ok.
13. Grady Sizemore (OF)
14. Chase Utley (2B)
15. Alex Gordon (3B) - He'll get it together. You just watch.
16. Jimmy Rollins (SS)
17. Matt Holliday (OF)
18. Curtis Granderson (OF)
19. Ryan Howard (1B)
20. Clay Buchholz (SP) - It's tough to rank any pitchers this high, but I'll take a chance on Buchholz.
21. Evan Longoria (3B)
22. Ian Kinsler (2B) - I believe he'll be a perennial 20/20 guy at second base.
23. Alex Rios (OF)
24. Lance Berkman (OF)
25. Nick Markakis (OF)

Honorable mentions: Jay Bruce (OF), Joba Chamberlain (SP), Mark Teixeira (1B), Carl Crawford (OF), Geovany Soto (C).

Thoughts?

Jake Peavy to the DL

Swelling and a strained elbow, but no ligament damage. He hopes to only be out for two weeks, but this sounds like the type of injury that could linger.

Closer Rankings

Due to popular demand (one guy), here are closer rankings from this point on. I've ranked them by Fantasy Value (FV) and included their ranking (among the players listed) in the Yahoo game.



The strategy here is simple: buy low and sell high.

Some buy-low candidates include Putz, Nathan, and Saito.

Some sell-high candidates include Valverde, Lidge, and Wood.

I have to say, I'm very concerned about Sherrill. I highly recommended him before the season and I can't complain about his performance as he is tied for the Major League-lead in saves with 17. But his peripherals are ugly. I'm trying to see if I can get something for him in some of my leagues before those peripherals start translating into blown saves.

Others who worry me: Rodriguez, F. Cordero, Jenks, Hoffman, and Gregg. With most of these guys, it's the K/BB ratio that has me concerned.

One example of a trade I made in one of my leagues: Brandon Lyon for C.C. Sabathia. I had five closers in that league and only four starters so it was a no-brainer.

UPDATE: I also just traded George Sherrill for J.J. Putz in one league. I feel pretty good about that.

Quick hits

• John Smoltz doesn't think he'll be back in the next few weeks as he had previously planned. His shoulder still hurts. This means Rafael Soriano (who should be back in a week or two) will be the Braves' closer for a little while at least.
• All signs point to Alex Rodriguez returning to the Yankees' lineup on Tuesday night. He was 3-for-10 with one homer in two extended spring training games. He'll probably be a little rusty, but you can never, ever bench A-Rod. (Unless "Acting Like a Little Bitch" is a negative-points category in your league.)
• Cliff Lee finally had a rough outing. Hopefully you traded him after his last start when his value was as high as it will ever be. I tried, but was unsuccesful.
• The most valuable fantasy player over the past week? Alfonso Soriano. 10 R, 7 HR, 14 RBI, .516 AVG, but zero steals. He only has three steals for the season and those who drafted him in the second round were banking on a 30/30 season. With his injuries, it doesn't look like that will happen. Coming off his recent hot streak, I would think about selling high on Soriano, since he probably won't hit 7 homers every week.
• Josh "The Natural" Hamilton tweaked something on Saturday, but he appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday, so he should be fine. Nothing to worry about.
• The Mariners optioned Jeff Clement to Tacoma today. He was clearly pressing at the plate and not showing the patience that made him such a stud prospect. I'm sure he'll be back at some point this season, hopefully with less jitters.
• Rick Ankiel will probably miss a few games but avoid the DL.
• Jorge Posada thinks he'll be back at the beginning of June.
• The D-Backs expect Doug Davis back at some point this week. What happens to Max Scherzer? The team isn't giving any hint yet. If he goes to the minors, his value takes a big hit. If he goes to the bullpen, his value takes a small hit as he would likely be among the best relievers in baseball, with value exceeding that of Broxton, Chamberlain, Bell, and others.

Santiago Casilla to the DL

Everyone's favorite middle reliever and heir-apparent to closer Huston Street has landed on the DL with some sort of arm thingy.

Jason Isringhausen, too. But no one cares about him and his ugly face.

Players who make me feel stupid

These are the players who have made me feel like an idiot for recommending them before the season, with a note about how much I now hate them. (I probably won't do a post on those players who have made me feel smart because I don't like to partake in the masturbatory process of self-congratulations. Call me humble.)

Rich Hill - I hate you and all your walks and your minor league demotion. You'd better pull a Zack Greinke and come back with a vengeance.

Corey Hart and Jeff Francoeur - Hit some homeruns, you wimpy bitches. The other numbers aren't bad, but hit some damn homers!

J.R. Towles - When you're the second-best catcher on a team with Brad Ausmus, things are not good.

Jeremy Bonderman - More walks that strikeouts is not a good way to pitch. You and Rich Hill can go get married and have lots of kids with no control.

Waiver Wire Talent Available

I looked through the ESPN player listings for good players who are owned in less than 50% of all ESPN leagues. I would suggest checking your league for these players and picking them up if they're available (and you have room).

Ryan Garko (42.8%) - He's been hitting between Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner. The RBI opportunities will be there.

Hiroki Kuroda (26.2%) - Kuroda's been unlucky, racking up only one win. That will change.

Greg Maddux (48.7%) - Yes, he's old and he plays for a shitty offensive team, but Maddux is still a pretty good pitcher and Petco is a pitcher-friendly park.

Jonathan Sanchez (41.6%) - Poor run support, but the strikeouts are nice.

Baseball Prospectus' expected wins statistic

Baseball Prospectus defines its "expected wins" statistic as follows:

Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).

I found the pitchers whose actual win totals exceeded their expected win total most dramatically. This is a quick and dirty way of identifying potentially overvalued pitchers. Here are the top ten, along with some other notables:

1. Brandon Webb
2. Andrew Sonnanstine
3. Ervin Santana
4. Livan Hernandez
5. Mike Mussina
6. Tim Hudson
7. Tim Redding
8. Joe Saunders
9. Aaron Cook
10. Micah Owings

11. Ted Lilly
14. Tim Lincecum
15. Carlos Zambrano
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka
17. Brad Penny
18. John Maine

Chances are, you don't own fatty Livan Hernandez anyway, but some of these guys could be sell-high candidates.

There's a noteworthy theme here. Most of these players are on good offensive teams (Redding and Lincecum being the notable exceptions).

Obviously, Brandon Webb is a great pitcher and you're very fortunate if you own him. On the other hand, his value will probably never be higher (Matthew Berry over at ESPN ranks Webb 10th overall). So, if you can trade Webb straight-up for Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, or a top-notch hitter, I'd do it. If you can't get big-time talent, though, hang onto him and enjoy the ride.

Tim Hudson should be sold high if possible. The ERA (2.54) will not stay this low, the strikeouts (35 in 56 2/3 innings) aren't great, and he's just not going to continue to win 2 out of every 3 starts.

I absolutely adore Tim Lincecum, but his value will also probably never be higher, especially when you consider how pathetic the Giants offense is.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is an interesting case. I highly encouraged readers to draft him this year, but he is a screaming sell-high candidate. The 4:3 K:BB ratio belies his 2.45 ERA and 6 wins. I do think his control will get better, but the ERA will definitely go up and the wins will definitely decrease in frequency. Some possible targets: C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, and Erik Bedard.

How about the flip-side? Here are those who have been the most "unlucky":

1. Shawn Chacon
2. Joe Blanton
3. Odalis Perez
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Shawn Hill
6. Adam Eaton
7. Justin Germano
8. Jeff Francis
9. Aaron Harang
10. Hiroki Kuroda

12. Matt Cain
13. Adam Wainwright
21. Clay Buchholz

The correlation between pitching for a poor offensive team and being an unlucky pitcher is obvious.

The names that stand out here are Felix Hernandez (who does pitch for a shitty offensive team, but is still very talented), Hiroki Kuroda, Aaron Harang, Adam Wainwright, and Clay Buchholz (whose current DL-status could get you a very nice discount).

Other than those five, this group is not incredibly interesting. Feel free to ignore the rest.

What We Know

It's been a little while since I've posted anything. But, with the season 1/4 of the way finished, I think it's time to re-examine the fantasy baseball landscape. Here's what we know so far:

Cliff Lee is a god. Anyone who saw this coming (I don't know of anyone) is also a god. While the current level of performance is unsustainable, Lee has clearly turned a corner. At some point, he's going to give up a few more walks, as .7 BB/9 is far better than his career mark of 2.9 BB/9. From this point on, I'd look for an ERA in the low 3's and about 13-15 more wins. That ain't bad, but if you can get a true stud fantasy performer right now, I'd say do it. Basically, he's for real, but not this real.

Lance Berkman is not over the hill. Power, average, and stolen bases! What a steal in the second or third round he turned out to be. Like Cliff Lee, Berkman clearly won't be able to keep up this pace, but barring injury, he'll be a top-10 fantasy performer this year.

Rich Hill is a heart-breaker. I feel like I'm breaking up with my girlfriend of the past two years. "We had some really good times together, Rich. I'm just not in a place right now, emotionally, where I can put the effort into this relationship that you need and deserve." (I've been cheating on him with Jair Jurrjens, but don't tell him.) Seriously, he may get things figured out, but it's just not worth the trouble at this point.

The sluggers are struggling. A lot of fantasy owners drafting at the end of the first round were faced with the decision of Prince Fielder vs. Ryan Howard. Now, we know the correct answer: Lance Berkman. Fielder and Howard have both been tremendously disappointing. Will they turn it around? Yes. Will they hit 50 homers? No. At this point, you have to modify your expectations to something like 35-40 homers, and a sub-.275 batting average for both players. If I was going to buy low on one of them, it would be Howard because he has a better supporting cast (Utley and Burrell).

Josh Hamilton is the real deal. He won't keep up his current RBI-per-game pace, but he should easily top 120 with about 30 homers.

C.C. Sabathia is still very good. The K-rate is better than one per inning and the big guy is pitching for a contract. Buy low if it's not too late.

Closers-by-committee suck. The Cardinals and Brewers are like the Denver Broncos of baseball. Think of us poor fantasy players and pick a closer. Please.

Matt Kemp is good. The power has been lacking, but the nine steals are nice. I'm still looking for at least 20 homers and now it's looking like 30 steals.

Young pitchers are frustrating. Clay Buchholz, Johnny Cueto, and Chad Billingsley have all been brilliant at times, and awful at times. Stick with these guys. Over the long haul, there will be more brilliant than awful. Feel free to cut bait on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Andrew Miller and Jon Lester fall somewhere in the middle.

It's nice to have a good catcher. Currently in the Yahoo game, there are only two catchers (Geovany Soto and Brian McCann) ranked in the top 100 players. And the sixth-ranked catcher (Mike Napoli) only plays every other day. The best power option before the season started (Victor Martinez) is homerless. Be thankful if you drafted Soto in the 13th round.

Third base is deep. Eleven third basemen rank in the top 100, including names like Kevin Youkilis, Aubrey Huff, Mark Reynolds, and Edwin Encarnacion (and not including Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez.) These are guys who could've been had after the 12th round. That's good value.

You have an idea of how good your team is. If you're near the bottom of your league right now, it is officially time to panic. Make some trades for guys who have gotten off to slow starts (Howard, Fielder, Cabrera, Guerrero, Teixeira, V-Mart, Cano, Sabathia, Verlander, etc.). Take a few chances. And be vigilant with regard to call-ups (Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw) and closer changes. It's not too late, but it's going to take some effort (and luck).

Yovani Gallardo

Bad news for our friend, Yovani. He's likely done for the year with a torn ACL. It's safe to drop him and go scrounge around the waiver wire pile for a replacement.

Call-Up Madness

Here are some notable prospects who have been called up recently and their potential impact.

Jeff Clement (C - Seattle)
I think all the rain and coffee has warped the little brains of those in the Mariners' front office. They just signed the 31-year-old Kenji Johjima to a three-year extension. Yes, he of the .459 OPS. At least they've come to their senses to some degree and realized the organization's best catcher should probably be in the majors.

Word is that the M's will give Clement starts at both catcher and DH, so playing time shouldn't be a concern. Considering Clement was hitting .397/.535/.692 at AAA, production shouldn't be a concern either.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the only catchers who will out-produce Clement from this point on are Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and Geovany Soto. If you don't have one of those guys, go get Clement right now. (J.R. Towles is close, by the way.)

On a side note, I LOVE that Clement walked 22 times and only struck out 12 times in 23 AAA games. It doesn't help much in fantasy baseball, but Mariner fans should be excited.

Wladimir Balentien (OF - Seattle)
Another Mariner! This is fun. Balentien hasn't been nearly as impressive as Clement this year (.254/.329/.619) in the minors, but he did go 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI in his first game with the Mariners.

With the Mariners cutting Brad Wilkerson, Balentien should get plenty of playing time. The power is legit and you could very well see 20 homers this year. I'm less optimistic about the batting average, though. Think .250-.270. If you're in an AL-only league, you should go get him. In deeper mixed leagues, he's borderline, depending on your outfield depth.


Nick Adenhart (SP - Los Angeles Angels)
Due to Dustin Moseley's utter suckiness, the Angels called up Adenhart to start tonight's game against the A's. My guess would be that Adenhart will only be in the majors until John Lackey is done with his rehab, which may be in another week or so. That means you'll probably only get one more start out of Adenhart after tonight (for now, at least).

Now the hard part: will he be any good? Here are his AAA stats this season:

31 IP; 19 K; 15 BB; 0 HR; 0.87 ERA

The ERA is beautiful and he seems to have a knack for keeping the ball in the park. The troublesome part is the K/BB ratio. Unless he does something to improve that ratio, Adenhart's going to have a tough time becoming a star in the majors. I could see him having a Jon Garland-like career (which isn't bad).

Should you own him? In a mixed league, probably not. If you're in an AL-only league, he might be worth a shot.


Brandon Wood (3B - Los Angeles Angels)
Nothing to get excited about here. I wouldn't expect Wood to be up for an extended period. Once Howie Kendrick comes back (soon), Chone Figgins will move back to third, leaving no room for Wood.

I should note that, even if Wood was going to be in the majors for an extended period, I wouldn't be overly excited. Too many strikeouts = low batting average. Occasional power is nice, but not enough to overcome his other flaws.


Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C - Texas Rangers)
Word is that the Rangers plan on giving Salty and Gerald Laird an even split of time behind the plate. He may get the occasional DH or first base start, but the playing time situation doesn't look great for Salty. He was doing a decent job in the minors, but I have a tough time recommending a pick-up here unless you're in an AL-only league.

Max Scherzer - Your New Best Friend

Max Scherzer not only has bad-ass eyes, but is also a bad-ass on the mound. In his major league debut last night, Scherzer pitched 4 1/3 innings and didn't allow a baserunner. He struck out 7 of the 13 batters he faced. He's good. Real good.

I expect Scherzer to take Edgar Gonzalez's spot in the rotation very soon.

In ESPN leagues, Scherzer is already available and should be picked up yesterday.

In Yahoo leagues, he has been placed on waivers, meaning you need to put in a waiver request for him right now. Stop reading; go do it. Burn your #1 waiver priority. He's worth it. Think Tim Lincecum with run support.

Quad Injuries

Nobody seems to be stretching their quads before games.

Alex Rodriguez has hit the DL with a strained quad as will Troy Tulowitzki (probably). Personally, I think A-Rod just wanted some time off to get a pedicure and some botox. Tulowitzki probably just wants to crawl into a hole and hide from the world, based on the way he's played so far.

Some ideas for replacements who might be available on the waiver wire in your league (in order of priority):

3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff, Aubrey Huff, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen.

SS - Erick Aybar, Ryan Theriot, Jeff Keppinger, Jhonny Peralta.

Smoltz, Posada to the DL

For Smoltz, it's not serious. He'll only be out a couple weeks.

Posada could be a different story, though. Word is that it shouldn't be season-ending, but there could be some structural damage which could necessitate surgery. If it's just a strain, he would only miss a few weeks. My guess: something in between. You should prepare your team to be without Posada for at least a month - maybe more.

Minor League Watch

Here are a few minor leaguers (with some of their minor league stats) you should have your eye on for a potential call-up.

Jay Bruce (CIN) - .338 AVG; 4 HR; 6 SB in 19 games (AAA)
He's the complete package. It's just a matter of time, now.

Max Scherzer (ARI) - 1.17 ERA; 38 K; 3 B in 23 IP (AAA)
Scherzer will have a Tim Lincecum-like impact this year. Edgar Gonzalez's days are numbered.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 1.83 ERA; 23 K; 8 BB in 19.2 IP (AA)
The Dodgers are intentionally limiting Kershaw's innings so that he will still have something left in the tank for the stretch run (in the majors).

Homer Bailey (CIN) - 1.03 ERA; 16 K; 4 BB in 26.1 IP (AAA)
Between Volquez, Cueto, and Bailey, the future is bright for the Reds' rotation.

Nick Adenhart (LAA) - 1.17 ERA; 14 K; 12 BB in 23 IP (AAA)
The K/BB ratio is disturbing, but you can't argue with the end result (1.17 ERA). There's no immediate opportunity, though, as Lackey is due back in a couple weeks.

Jeff Clement (SEA) - .375 AVG; 5 HR; .500 OBP in 19 games (AAA)
The Mariners need to end the Jose Vidro experiment and let Johjima and Clement rotate between DH and catcher.


And some who have been a little disappointing:
Colby Rasmus (STL) - .224 AVG; 3 HR; 2 SB; .353 SLG in 21 games (AAA)
Bad average, little power. He'll probably turn it around, but I don't think the Cards will rush him.

Cameron Maybin (FLA) - .257 AVG; 3 HR; 4 SB; 31 K in 20 games (AA)
Showing a little power and some steals, but the 31 strikeouts in only 20 games is alarming.

Brandon Wood (LAA) - .263 AVG; 7 HR; 27 K in 18 games (AAA)
The power is there (.618 SLG), but Wood desperately needs to cut down on the strikeouts.

Francisco Liriano demoted to AAA

The Minnesota Star Tribune is reporting that Liriano will be sent to AAA Rochester following his awful 2/3 of an inning, 6-run performance yesterday.

At this point, there are probably better options than Liriano available on the waiver wire. If you're in a one-year mixed-league, it is safe to drop him. If it's a keeper or AL-only league, you have a tough decision to make. In deep leagues, I would lean toward hanging onto him. In more shallow leagues, you may not want to be patient with him.

Closer Alert: Brian Fuentes

Brian Fuentes challenged Manny Corpas to a game of table tennis last night. Winner take all (the closing duties for the Rockies). Corpas underestimated Fuentes' quick wrists and now we have a new closer in Colorado. Go pick him up.

Putz is back

J.J. Putz returned to the Mariners bullpen last night and recorded the save. Mark Lowe and anyone else who got save chances during Putz's absence are now worthless once again.

DIPS Leaders

One of my favorite pitching stats is DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistic) which judges a pitcher on only those things for which is he directly responsible (strikeouts, walks, homeruns). It assumes that, over time, most pitchers will give up the same number of hits on balls put in play. Here are the leaders so far this year (of those with at least 20 innings pitched), along with their K/9 rate to provide a better picture of their fantasy value.




Notes on a few of these pitchers:
Jair Jurrjens - His K/9 rate isn't overly exciting, but he does seem to be a pretty good pitcher. Plus, he has a bad-ass name. If you're in an NL-only league, he's a must-have. In a mixed league, I think he'll have decent value over the course of the season as the Braves should score plenty of runs.

Randy Wolf - I mentioned Wolf as a sleeper among starting pitchers before the season and I think his peformance will continue to reward his owners. He's a good strikeout pitcher in a great pitchers' park. What more could you ask for?

John Danks - I'm not buying into this. The K/9 rate isn't pretty and he pitches in a homerun park.

Edinson Volquez - I like Volquez and mentioned him as a sleeper before the season. He's a strikeout pitcher and that makes me happy, but I'm sure he'll struggle at times this year with his control. An increase in homeruns wouldn't be shocking, either. Again, I like him a lot, but expect some regression.

Nick Blackburn - The very low K/9 rate makes it difficult to think that Blackburn will continue to succeed at his current rate. He's not a bad pitcher, but I wouldn't be interested in owning him in a 12-team mixed league.

Brian Bannister - One of my favorite players. He's incredibly bright and spends a great deal of time studying "sabermetric" stats. He then uses the stats to help improve his pitching. This guy is an avid Baseball Prospectus reader. How beautiful is that? I believe that Bannister is one of those guys who will be able to succeed despite a low strikeout rate because he truly understands how to pitch. That said, he's never going to win a Cy Young award and his lack of strikeouts puts a cap on his fantasy value. But, if you're looking for a Greg Maddux-type pitcher who should post a low WHIP and a decent ERA, Bannister is a good option.

Ervin Santana - Has he finally gotten his head screwed on straight? In years past, Santana has been one of those guys who pitched 8 innings of 1-run baseball one start and then given up 8 runs in one inning the next start. So far this year, Santana has been much more consistent and posted great numbers. I'm sort of buying into this improvement. He has a history of being a decent strikeout pitcher and that should help. But proceed with caution as Santana may start giving up homers like a crazy man.

Jonathan Sanchez - He gets overlooked with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum representing the future for the Giants, but Sanchez is no slouch. He has always been a big-time strikeout pitcher, with the only question being his control. With 10 walks in only 20 innings, it appears that control will continue to be a question. But 26 strikeouts in 20 innings is tough to ignore. In summary; Positives: Strikeouts, good ballpark. Negatives: Walks, bad run support. Conclusion: Sanchez has some value in mixed leagues, but only if the back-end of your rotation is lacking.

Buy-Low Candidates

Here are some guys who are off to rough starts who you might be able to acquire at a discount:

Prince Fielder - With a .241 average and only one homer, the stalky young man is not living up to his owners' expectations. While he may come up short of 50 homers this year, Fielder is too good not to at least approach 40. If you'd like about 40 more homeruns over the course of the season, off up a trade to your local Prince owner.

Brandon Phillips - Despite hitting in the cleanup spot, Phillips has managed only 5 RBI to date. Assuming he stays in that place in the order (and I think he probably will), Phillips should start racking up RBI just by virtue of his position in the lineup.

Mark Teixeira - Another cleanup hitter who isn't doing a ton of cleaning up. Chipper Jones is an on-base machine and Teixeira has Francoeur protecting him, so there's no reason to think that he won't put up some big numbers in his contract year.

Victor Martinez - He was hurt for a little while, but seems fine now. His batting average is great (.368) - he just hasn't hit any homers. Hope that the Martinez owner is getting impatient and package your catcher with someone else to acquire him.

Robinson Cano - Too good of a hitter to struggle for long. Look for him to go on a tear.

C.C. Sabathia - As far as anyone can tell, Sabathia's problems are not injury-related. If that's the case, I fully expect him to right the ship and pitch like the C.C. that we all know and love. That said, I'd be a little cautious since there is a possibility that there is something wrong with him physically (or mentally, I suppose).

Justin Verlander - I'm not a huge Verlander fan, but I'm pretty sure he's better than he's shown so far. And I still think the Tigers' offense will turn things around and score a bunch of runs. Put him in the same boat as Sabathia, though, and be a little cautious in acquiring.

James Shields - Shields has been thoroughly unexciting, earning only one win, with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.48. The ERA is good, but with only one win, his owners may be overlooking (and, therefore, undervaluing) him.

Slow starts on which I would NOT be buying low (unless you can get them ridiculously cheap):
Rich Hill
Jose Reyes
David Ortiz
Russell Martin
Troy Tulowitzki
Hunter Pence
Gary Sheffield
Brad Hawpe
Dan Uggla
Andruw Jones

Early K/BB Ratio Leaders

It's very early to look at pitching stats too much, but K/BB ratio is one of the best indicators of a pitcher's probability of success. Here are the early K/BB leaders among starting pitchers.

• Yes, Johnny Cueto is very good. 24:1 K/BB ratio good? No. But good.
• Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Zambrano, and Roy Oswalt all look like pitchers who just happen to have started well. Maybe they'll be a little better than they normally are, but there's no reason to expect any of these guys to suddenly enter Johan Santana and Jake Peavy territory. It's only three starts, after all. Of those five, I would probably be most optimistic about Zambrano and Oswalt, simply because they have the most consistent track records.
• Wandy Rodriguez and Cliff Lee are both relatively young still and could be taking the next step forward in their careers. I wouldn't be surprised to see decent seasons out of both of these guys. I'd give Rodriguez a slight edge over Lee because he has a little more strikeout potential.
• Adam Wainwright and Boof Bonser are both young pitchers who struck out a lot of hitters in the minor leagues, but have struggled to replicate that success thus far in the majors. Because of their youth, I would be most excited about the possibility of these two having breakout seasons of the group listed above (other than Cueto).

Rich Hill - Do or Die Time

Due to Rich Hill's early struggles, Lou Piniella sent him to the bullpen for a week to get things straightened out. Hill is scheduled to start against the Pirates this Friday and, although it hasn't actually been said, it stands to reason that if Hill doesn't show significant improvement, he will lose his rotation spot.

Basically, here's how it will probably work:
Bad start on Friday: Jon Lieber replaces Hill in the rotation.
OK start on Friday: He gets another start or two.
Good start on Friday: Gets at least another two or three starts.

As someone who adamantly recommended Hill before the season, I would really like to see him perform well. The main concern is the strikeout-to-walk ratio. Last year, Hill had a 2.9 ratio. In 9 innings pitched this year, Hill has struck out 7 (not bad), but walked 7 (bad). I'm sure that's what the Cubs organization will be looking at this Friday. If Hill can pitch something like 6 innings with at least 4 strikeouts and 2 walks or fewer, he should earn himself another start.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Slow Starts

David Ortiz - Big Papi needs to spend a little less time admiring his homeruns and a little more time working on hitting breaking balls. I believe that Ortiz has entered the Mo Vaughn Zone. Sure, he'll still hit 30 homers and drive in 100 or so runs, but gone are the days of 54 homers and 137 RBI. Ortiz will still hold plenty of fantasy value, but he will no longer be among the elite first basemen.

Jose Reyes - This is mainly an injury concern. Reyes has hamstring issues which have caused him to miss a little playing and, important for fantasy players, have limited him to only one steal. The question is: will it limit him all year? I'm afraid the answer is probably yes. Does that mean Reyes will only steal 10 bases? No. But I definitely wouldn't expect 78 out of him again. Let's say more like 40-50. Not bad, but if you spent a first round pick on Reyes, expecting 70 steals, this could be very bad for your team. This situation certainly highlights the risks involved in drafting a player on the basis of his contribution in one category. If it works out, you win a category. If it doesn't, you're screwed.

Miguel Cabrera - Almost the entire Tigers' lineup is struggling, but since Miggy is a first-rounder, I decided to pick on him. There were a lot of stories about Cabrera getting into better shape this offseason, so maybe he just needs to start eating junk food and avoiding the gym again. Honestly, though, I think some of this has to do with adjusting to a new (more difficult) league and different pitchers. Cabrera is such a natural hitter, that I'm sure he'll get it figured out. I think this is a buy-low opportunity.

Troy Tulowitzki - I haven't heard any injury concerns here. Tulo is just sucking ass, plain and simple. It is fairly common for second-year players to face some issues as pitchers learn how to get them out. The question is whether Tulowitzki can adjust to the pitchers' adjustments. He has already earned a reputation as an old-school player who works hard to improve. I feel fairly confident that he'll make the necessary adjustments and return to form. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small decline in his numbers across the board versus last year.

Robinson Cano - Cano's a .300 hitter who just happens to be going through a rough patch. I would definitely be interested in buying low right now.

Hunter Pence - I'm a little concerned about Pence. Even in his outstanding rookie season last year, he struck out a lot. He's a free-swinger and it's quite possible that opposing pitchers have figured out how to exploit that. I wouldn't buy low here, but I also wouldn't panic too much if I owned him. I still think he'll be about a 20/20 guy, but I think the batting average is going to be ugly.

Andruw Jones - I thought Jones would rebound slightly from his disappointing 2007 season. So far, it's been even worse. He's striking out, he's not hitting line drives, and he doesn't have single homerun yet this year. I have no idea what happened to him, but I'm afraid he may be in store for another awful year. If you own Jones, give him another couple weeks before cutting bait, but I wouldn't be overly optimistic about him turning things around.

Closer Alert: Betancourt/Kobayashi

Joe Borowski is headed to the DL. That means that either Rafael Betancourt or Masa Kobayashi will take over the closer's role for the Indians.

The question is: which one? Betancourt has been one of the best relievers in baseball for the last four years and would seem to be the obvious choice.

However, Kobayashi has out-pitched Betancourt so far in 2008 and has experience as a closer in Japan, notching 180 saves over the last six seasons.

My guess is that Eric Wedge goes with Betancourt, but I'm going to keep a close eye on this situation. I've already picked up Betancourt in leagues where he was available, but I also grabbed Kobayashi in leagues where Betancourt was already taken.

By the way, I feel pretty confident that Borowski has lost the job for good, even if he is fully recovered in a couple weeks. He sucks.

Brewers Rotation

Yovani Gallardo is set to come off the DL later this week, meaning someone is going to lose their rotation spot. Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan are safe. That leaves Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, and Manny Parra. There has been some speculation that one of those three could be sent to the bullpen, but then the Brewers would have to release one of their veteran relievers.

My best guess is that Parra heads to AAA so that he can continue starting games until the Brewers need him again. I'm a big Parra fan and would be disappointed to see this happen.

Keep an eye on the situation - especially if you own any of the pitchers involved.

Evan Longoria

So, I was too busy (drinking) on Friday night to check on fantasy baseball. When I checked Saturday afternoon, I discovered that Longoria had been called up by the Rays after they placed Willie Aybar on the DL. I raced to each of my leagues and found that Longoria was still available in only one league. Disappointment.

Obviously, if he's still available in any of your leagues, grab him immediately. Unfortunately, though, someone has probably grabbed him by now.

Ever the optimist, I can look at it this way: If he does well, then I look smart for recommending him repeatedly. If he does poorly, then my fantasy opponents suffer, thus increasing my chances of winning. It's a win-win. (Or lose-lose, if you take the flip-side of those arguments.)

More Hot Starts - Real or Not Real?

Here are a few more hitters off to hot starts (I'll get to the pitchers soon.)

Justin Upton - If you've read this blog at all in the last few months, you know that I have a man-crush on Upton. I was projecting something like 20-20 for Upton and I called him my #1 sleeper. I feel pretty confident that he won't keep up his current homerun pace (sorry, no 65-homer season), but I think his lack of steals is sure to change. He's young and he's almost sure to struggle at times this season, but clearly Upton is ready to be a very good major league player. I would increase my 20-homer projection for him to more like 25-30 and I still think he'll swipe 20 bases even though he's sitting on zero right now.
Verdict: Real.

Mike Jacobs - I mentioned Jacobs as a potential sleeper due to his power, with some hesitation due to his potentially low batting average. Basically, nothing has changed. Jacobs has hit five homers already and is hitting .298. I expect the power to continue, but the average to decrease. He's a good player, but he's not going to suddenly become a superstar.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Corey Patterson - This is a yes and no situation. Is the speed for real? Yes. Patterson could easily steal 30 or more bases. Is the power for real? Kind of. He could hit 20-25 homers, but I would expect something more in the 15-20 range, which isn't bad. Is the low batting average for real? Yes. And that's the biggest problem with Patterson. Proceed with caution.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Bill Hall - Another batting average issue. The five homers are nice and remind us that Hall hit 35 two years ago. But, I would be very surprised if Hall topped 25 this year and when you combine that with the fact that he probably won't hit over .270, there's no reason to get overly excited. Now, if he still played shortstop, it might be a different story.
Verdict: Not Real.

Raul Ibanez - His early numbers are basically a result of two really good games. I think he'll hit 25-30 homers and drive in about 100 runs again, but his days among the AL leaders in homers and RBI are numbered. Even though I'm saying his start is not for real, that doesn't mean he's not a good fantasy contributor. Don't drop him, just don't think he's going to guide you to your league championship.
Verdict: Not Real.

Closer Alert: Manny Acosta

The Braves placed Rafael Soriano on the DL yesterday and Bobby Cox said that Manny Acosta would temporarily fill in for Soriano.

Peter Moylan is probably a better pitcher than Acosta (at least more proven), so it's possible that he'll steal a few opportunities, but Acosta is your best bet for saves in the near-term.

Hot Starts - For Real?

Here are some of the (non-obvious) fantasy hitters who have gotten off to hot starts and some analysis as to whether they're for real.



Xavier Nady - His appearance on this list is largely a result of one very good game in which he went 4-for-7 with 2 homers and 4 RBI. Nady is a decent player but he's never been able to stay healthy and his career-high in homers is 20. The most I think you could get out of Nady this year is 25 homers and 90 RBI, which isn't bad - but, that's the upside projection.
Verdict: Not Real.

Nate McLouth - Here's what McLouth has going for him: he's young (26), he has great speed (36-of-39 for steals in his career), and he has a little bit of pop (13 homers in only 329 at-bats last year). Basically, he's a younger version of Eric Byrnes. I like that. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15-20 homers and 30-40 steals, albeit with a somewhat low batting average.
Verdict: Real.

Mark Reynolds - I listed Reynolds as my #10 sleeper before the season started and he hasn't given me any reason to think differently. I like the power a lot. The only thing that bothered me before the season was the possibility of Chad Tracy stealing playing time when he comes back. But, if Reynolds keeps hitting like this, the D-Backs won't be able to justify sitting him.
Verdict: Real.

Kosuke Fukudome - This is a tough one. I remember back in 2004, Kaz Matsui hit a homer in his first major league at-bat and everyone got excited. Fukudome has already displayed some heroics, but judging by his Japanese League stats, I'd say 25 homers, 10 steals, and a .300 average is his Upside. That's decent, but also unlikely. I think Fukudome is one of those guys who is a better real player than fantasy player due to his ability to draw walks. He's worth a spot on your roster, but I wouldn't get overly excited about his hot start. Also, keep in mind that he's never played more than 140 games in a season before, so fatigue could set in at the end of the year.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

A.J. Pierzynski - The most despised man in baseball now that Barry Bonds can't find a job. This is nothing more than a nice little run of games for A.J. He'll hit something like 12-18 homers like he always does. Nothing to get excited about here.
Verdict: Not Real.

Pat Burrell - Burrell has been a consistent 30-homer guy for a number of years now. The question is always the batting average. Is there any reason to think that at age 31 Burrell will somehow figure it out and increase his batting average significantly? No. Is there hope that he could see a power surge and hit 40 homers instead of his usual 30? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Jeff Keppinger - The positives for Keppinger: he's 28 and he's always been a .300 hitter at every place he's played. Unfortunately, there's not a whole lot more. He'll only steal a couple of bases and 12-15 homers is about his upside in the power department. But if you need a middle infielder and a little help in the batting average department, Keppinger should deliver.
Verdict: Kinda Real.

Joe Crede - Wasn't he supposed to be traded by now? Crede could put together a season like he had in 2006 when he hit .283 with 30 homers and 94 RBI. But the rest of his career suggests that season was the anomaly. If he stays healthy (a big if), Crede could hit 20-25 homers, but I wouldn't expect a batting average over .270. There are plenty of good third basemen out there, so a 30-year-old Crede really isn't anything to get excited about.
Verdict: Not Real.

Gabe Kapler - I love Kapler because he looks like he could kick every other baseball player's ass. Anyone think he played in Japan last year to get the steroids out of his system so he wouldn't test positive? Yeah, me neither. As much as I like Kapler (I really do), there is absolutely nothing in his career numbers to suggest that he will be a fantasy contributor. Plus, when Mike Cameron gets back from his suspension, Kapler's playing time will decrease significantly.
Verdict: Not Real.

David Murphy - Murphy has a lot of things in his favor. He's 26, he's finally getting a chance to play regularly, and he plays in a good hitters' ballpark. That said, he's never been much of a power hitter and ten steals looks like about the most we could expect out of him. He's screams fourth outfielder to me, but this is his chance to prove me wrong.
Verdict: Not Real.

Francisco Rodriguez Injury

K-Rod left the game last night (after blowing a save) with a sore ankle. It's quite possible and even likely that he will hit the DL. It's probably not a serious injury, but it makes sense to let him get fully healed this early in the season rather than let the injury linger.

For fantasy purposes, this means that either Scot Shields or Justin Speier will have fantasy value over the next couple of weeks. The question is: which one? Shields has seniority and, in general, the Angels would prefer to use him as the closer over Speier. However, Shields just returned from the DL and pitched poorly last night after replacing Rodriguez. My money is on Shields, but it's close. Don't drop someone with legitimate value until you hear for sure who will get the gig. But, if you have someone with marginal value, say Jeremy Guthrie, go snag Shields.

Spot-Starting Against the Weak Teams

I am thoroughly convinced that the Giants' offense is going to be utterly pathetic this year. Look at the lineup they went with today against the Brewers, along with their career OPS in parentheses:

Roberts (.712)
Velez (Rookie - limited career #'s)
Winn (.768)
Molina (.718)
Rowand (.804)
Castillo (.677)
Aurilia (.768)
Bocock (Rookie - limited career #'s)

Only Rowand has a career OPS over .800 and he's on the wrong side of his career (that is, we should expect decline - not improvement). The others are all either getting a little old (Aurilia and Winn), never that good in the first place (Roberts, Molina, Castillo), or unproven rookies (Velez and Bocock).

The point is, you can take advantage of this by grabbing marginal pitchers who are going to face the Giants or other weak teams. If your league is deep enough that you can employ a strategy of picking up and dropping pitchers on a regular basis, this strategy can be very effective.

I would think about using this strategy with the Giants, Pirates, and Orioles. (I just singled out the Giants because I don't like them.) The Nationals, Marlins, and A's could be candidates, too, but I'd wait to see how their offenses pan out in the coming weeks.

Here are some upcoming matchups with these teams where you may be able to spot-start a pitcher:
April 5
Manny Parra vs. Giants
(You should probably own Parra, anyway)

April 6
Greg Maddux vs. Giants
Rick Vanden Hurk vs. Pirates

April 8
Randy Wolf vs. Giants
Jason Jennings vs. Orioles

Gary Sheffield Injury

Sheffield tore a tendon in his left ring finger yesterday, but says he's going to try to play through it. This sounds like the type of injury that could linger. He might avoid the DL for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he admits defeat at some point in the next few weeks and hits the DL. I would probably sit him today (assuming you have other decent options) and look for an update on his status tomorrow.

Johnny Cueto

He's good. Go pick him up.

Closer Alert: Mark Lowe

Pick up Mark Lowe, who will fill in for J.J. Putz for at least the next couple of weeks.

My Guys

I thought I should list my favorite picks for this year. These are the guys I've drafted most often this season and on whom my success depends. I've listed my actual projection for each of them, along with an "Upside" projection; that is, the numbers they'll reach if everything goes right. One note: I don't actually own Longoria on any teams, but I plan on getting him on as many teams as possible before he gets called up in a month or two, so I thought I should include him.

I plan on following the success of these guys all year. We'll see if I actually know anything, or if I'm full of shit.

Fantasy Notes

• Carlos Gomez is the Twins' starting center fielder and he ain't half bad. He stole two bases in his first game. If you're looking for some cheap steals, grab Gomez. He'll struggle at times, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him steal 40 bases.
• Jon Garland pitched eight innings in his Angels debut, allowing only one run on six hits and one walk. The problem? Zero strikeouts. Sure, you can be mildly successful without striking out batters, but Garland will not be a fantasy stud. Trust me.
• Pedro Martinez hurt his hamstring in his first start of the season. We'll have to wait and see what the verdict is, but I fully expect him to miss some time. Make other arrangements.
• If you're looking for a temporary closer, grab Jon Rauch, because Chad Cordero is having some shoulder issues. It doesn't sound like it's serious, as Manny Acta said they're not considering the DL at this point, but he should miss a little time.
• Kelly Johnson's knee is bothering him. He left Monday's game early.
• Kaz Matsui has an anal fissure. I don't know what that means, but it makes me giggle. Matsui probably feels differently.
• Michael Bourn is only 1-for-6 so far in this young season, but he does have three stolen bases already. How? He's drawn three walks, which is a great sign that Bourn understands that he needs to get on base. I'll go ahead and say right now that Bourn will trail only Jose Reyes in stolen bases this year.
• Victor Martinez is day-to-day and should avoid the DL. No need to worry too much.

Early Fantasy Standings

One small (and hopefully obvious) piece of advice: don't even look at the standings in your rotisserie league right now. Only 23 games have been played. We still have 2,407 to go. That means that less than 1% of the games have been played.

I wouldn't start worrying about the standings until 2-3 weeks into the season when about 10-15% of the games have been played. Even that might be early.

Of course, in head-to-head leagues, every win counts. But don't overreact if you lose the first week. Start worrying when you've lost the first three weeks by wide margins. Your team probably sucks.

Matt Kemp Watch 2008

Bad news out of L.A. last night. Joe Torre started Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre over Matt Kemp against right-hander Matt Cain. Kemp later replaced Pierre (and went 0-for-2, unfortunately) but it is extremely disconcerting to see Kemp start the game on the bench. It's hard for me to imagine that Torre would continue with this silliness, but I guess it's possible.

For now, here's the game plan: check to see whether the Dodgers are facing a righty or a lefty. If it's a lefty, Kemp must be in your lineup. If it's a righty, think about using another option (if you have a good one).

Be patient, though, as I have faith that Kemp will force Torre to play him every day or close to it once Torre sees hows utterly pathetic Pierre is.

Dodgers Lineup

Here's what the Dodgers went with yesterday against a lefty (Zito):

Furcal
Ethier
Kemp
Kent
Jones
Martin
Loney
DeWitt

Obviously, this bodes well for Kemp owners. If he hits in the #3 spot consistently, he should reach 100 RBI without any problem.

However, I think we'll see a slightly different lineup against a right-hander. We'll find out tonight when the Dodgers go against Matt Cain. My guess is that Loney will move up in the order, perhaps at the expense of Kemp. But, if Kemp hits third again tonight then all of his owners should rejoice.

Royals Starting Lineup

Here's the Royals' lineup for their opener against the Tigers today:

DeJesus
Grudzielanek
Gordon
Guillen
Butler
Teahen
Gload
Buck
Pena

This is very good news for two of my guys: Gordon and Butler. There had been a lot of talk about hitting them sixth and seventh, which was very confusing to me. Gordon gains some value in the #3 spot as his RBI and runs numbers should benefit. Of course, he still has to hit and prove that he belongs there.

Andre Ethier gets left field gig

The Dodgers aren't stupid. At least, Joe Torre isn't.

Ethier, who vastly outplayed Juan Pierre in Spring Training will be the Dodgers' starting left fielder and Pierre will pinch-hit, pinch-run, and probably make a few spot starts.

This is bad news for those of you who drafted Juan Pierre in the tenth round (I told you to wait and grab Michael Bourn in the eighteenth), but good news for those of you interested in taking a chance on Ethier.

I wouldn't be overly optimistic about Ethier, though. I think 15-20 homers, 80 RBI, a .290 average, and one or two steals is a reasonable expectation. That can certainly help your team, but it's not going to win a league for you.

If you're a Dodger fan (which I am not), this should be great news as Ethier is clearly the superior player. I think the Dodgers' lineup is very good from top to (almost) bottom.

Fredi Gonzalez is a douchebag

Here's what Fredi Gonzalez had to say about the prospects of Hanley Ramirez stealing 50 bases this year:

"I hope not. The reason being, your body gets banged up and the wear and tear. Here's a guy who hits you .300 with a chance to hit 30 (home runs) and drive in a lot of runs. I'm scared because the more you're that type of a stolen bases (guy), even when you don't steal and you're diving back to first base, you get banged up."

Here's the kicker:
"Hopefully, the home runs go up and the stolen bases go down."

Ouch. Expecting something like this, I've only projected Hanley Ramirez to steal 41 bases this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower than that. So, let's assume 35 steals. I can't project more homeruns simply because that's what the coach wants to see, so we'll have to stick with 29 there. Obviously the coach has much more control over steals than homeruns. Making that downward adjustment to steals moves Ramirez from 2nd in my overall rankings to 5th, behind Rodriguez, Reyes, Wright, and Santana.

On a side note, I actually agree with Gonzalez and would rather see Ramirez concentrate on hitting if I was a Marlins fan. However, for fantasy baseball purposes, I stand by my claim that Gonzalez is a douchebag.

Cameron Maybin to AA

Maybin had a rough spring and will start the year at AA. He'll be called up at some point and if you need steals, he could be a good pick-up. But there's no point in holding him now unless you're in a keeper league.

Evan Longoria to AAA

Sad news. Longoria will start the year in AAA.

Be ready to pounce in a month or so. Or, if you have a deep bench, don't be afraid to hold onto him as I'm very confident he'll be in the majors and productive sooner rather than later.

Manny Parra gets a rotation spot

Go pick up Manny Parra. He had an inconsistent spring, but he has secured a spot in the Milwaukee rotation and should be quite good.

Also, sorry for the lack of posts but I was in Arizona, catching some Spring Training games.

Colby Rasmus to start the year in AAA

Word out of St. Louis camp is that the Cardinals will start the season with Rick Ankiel as their center fielder and Colby Rasmus will play for the AAA team. Chances are good that injuries will force the Cardinals to call Rasmus up at some point. Be alert for that day, because Rasmus should contribute in both the power and speed categories.

Breakout Candidates based on Spring numbers

As I've said before, Spring Training stats don't mean much. Obviously, if there's a player with injury questions who is performing well, that's probably a good sign. But for the most part, hitters are working out their swings and pitchers are trying new pitches or refining old ones.

But there is some evidence of a correlation between posting a slugging average (SLG) 200 points above one's career mark and a breakout season. So, I scanned the Spring Training numbers for high SLG and came up with some guys who are 200 points or more above their career averages. I also included some young players who don't have major league numbers yet.




Comments:

• The Tigers' Spring Training stadium must be a hitters' paradise because there are four Tigers on the list. Either that, or Detroit is going to score 1,200 runs this year.
• Yes, I know Billy Butler's SLG isn't actually 200 points above his career average, but it's close enough for a mention. I'm getting more and more excited about him.
• Josh Hamilton is ridiculous. He had a streak of 13 straight plate appearances where he reached base. He really could have an incredible year.
• It appears that Chase Headley will earn the starting left field job for the Padres. I wouldn't get overly excited, but he could make a nice little contribution in the 20-homer, 85-RBI neighborhood.
• I'm not sure if this is true, but I have a feeling that this whole 200-point increase thing applies less to older players like Torii Hunter, Lance Berkman, and Ivan Rodriguez. But maybe not.
• Andre Ethier's breakout is a little disconcerting for a Matt Kemp fan like myself. (Kemp didn't miss this list by much. He's having a good spring, too.)
• Evan Longoria might force the Rays to make him their starting third baseman. I think they'd ideally like to start him at AAA, but if he keeps hitting like this, it's going to be hard for them to deny him a spot on the 25-man roster.
• The bar was set pretty low for Erick Aybar (.295), but the .625 spring SLG probably makes Aybar the favorite for the shortstop gig in Anaheim over Maicer Izturis.

2008 Fantasy Sleepers - Deep Sleepers

I've taken a look at my favorite sleepers already, but let's look at the ten best deep sleepers out there. These are the guys you probably don't need to draft in a shallow mixed league.


Manny Parra – He’ll be up at some point. That rotation can’t stay healthy all year. And when he gets the call, Parra will have a Gallardo-esque impact.

Carlos Gomez – I can’t believe I haven’t mentioned him until now. He’s really not all that good, but the Twins may not have any other choice in center field. If Gomez plays the full year, look for 30-40 steals.

Steve Pearce – The Pirates need to find room for Pearce. He can mash.

Gio Gonzalez – The A’s rotation is…interesting. After they trade Blanton and Harden gets hurt, they may be forced to plug Gonzalez in there.

Edinson Volquez - Assuming he earns a spot in the rotation, Volquez should rack up plenty of K's. If he can keep the ball in the park, he could post a decent ERA.

Adam Loewen - Loewen has serious control issues. But, he's also been quite a strikeout pitcher in his minor league days. If he can cut his walk-rate significantly, Loewen could be a nice little surprise.

Nyjer Morgan - He can run. Morgan figures to be the Pirates' starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter. He's not a great hitter (absolutely no power), but if he can hit well enough to stay in the lineup, we could see 40 steals out of him.

Jeff Clement - If it wasn't for Kenji Johjima, Clement would probably be the Mariners' starting catcher. As it stands, he'll probably start the year in AAA. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the M's call him up and have Johjima do some DH-ing. Clement hit 20 homers at AAA last season.

J.P. Howell - Howell gets lost in the shuffle for a rotation spot, but he's basically Scott Kazmir Lite. He's a smallish (6-0, 180) lefty with strikeout ability and could find a way into the Tampa Bay rotation.

Matt Antonelli - He's a solid player all the way around. In the not-too-distant future, I expect to see the second baseman post a 20-homer, 20-steal, .290 season. It could be this year, but it looks like he'll start the year at AAA.

Kyle Lohse signs with Cardinals

In a mixed league, I don't think Lohse is worth owning. In an NL-only league, he's worth a pick-up. He should post an ERA in the mid-4's along with 120-130 strikeouts. Certainly nothing to get excited about. I do think it's hilarious that he held out for so long and ended up only getting a one-year deal in the $4-5 million range.

Evaluating My Team - Team #6

I had my sixth draft this weekend and I thought I should post the results so you can see that I practice what I preach. This is a standard 5x5, 12-team, roto league. I had the fourth overall pick. Here's my team (along with which round I took them in):

Hitters
C - J.R. Towles (16th round) - I really smell a Russell Martin-esque season for Towles. He's been a little dinged up in Spring Training, but nothing serious.
1B - Mark Teixeira (3rd round) - He hit the NL well after the trade last year and keep in mind that he's in a contract year. (Yes, there is some evidence that players perform slightly better in contract years.)
2B - B.J. Upton (2nd round) - Make me proud, B.J.
3B - David Wright (1st round) - I was really tempted to take Johan Santana, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it.
SS - Rafael Furcal (6th round) - Boring, I know. But he should get some steals and score some runs.
OF - Eric Byrnes (4th round) - This team might be a little steals-heavy, but that's ok.
OF - Nick Markakis (5th round) - I decided that I wasn't going to take Corey Hart, because I like my teams to be at least a little different. So, I went for Markakis' RBI.
OF - Delmon Young (9th round) - He's tentatively scheduled to hit third in the Minnesota lineup which means plenty of RBI opportunities for Young.
Util - Matt Kemp (10th round) - Yes, there's a significant risk that he won't get as much playing time as he should. But, I'm confident that he'll force the Dodgers to play him.
Bench - Evan Longoria (15th round) - It's still unclear whether he'll make the Opening Day roster, but I thought I'd take a chance on at least one team.
Bench - Billy Butler (20th round) - He's been tearing it up in the spring (not that it means anything) and I fully expect Butler to continue hitting once the season starts.

Pitchers
SP - John Smoltz (7th round) - I don't usually go after old pitchers, but I keep finding myself going back to Smoltz. Good K rate and should win plenty of games.
SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka (8th round) - Love me some Daisuke. Same basic story as Smoltz.
SP - Rich Hill (11th round) - Usually I grab him in the 10th round. I decided to be patient this time and it paid off.
SP - John Maine (12th round) - I just adore Hill and Maine. Can't get enough.
SP - Oliver Perez (14th round) - Strikeouts and wins.
SP - Jon Lester (21st round) - He's been very sharp in Spring Training.
RP - Joakim Soria (13th round) - Saves.
RP - C.J. Wilson (17th round) - He's a little dinged up, but I still expect Wilson to be the Rangers' closer.
RP - Brandon Lyon (18th round) - He's not very good, but Lyon should get some saves.
RP - George Sherrill (19th round) - Have I mentioned that everyone should draft Sherrill?

Bottom Line
The only weakness I see on this team is that my lineup may be a little too strong in steals and, hence, not strong enough in homers and RBI. It's not bad enough that I feel the immediate need to make any deals, though. The pitching staff is strong and I actually have four closers, which is unusual for me. I feel pretty confident here.