Dan Uggla - What's the Deal?

Before the season I projected the following line for Dan Uggla:
96 R, 27 HR, 81 RBI, 2 SB, .258 AVG

Currently, he's on pace for the following line:
130 R, 50 HR, 115 RBI, 7 SB, .323 AVG

Two things are clear:

1. I misunderestimated (to quote our great president) Uggla's ability.
2. He can't keep up this pace.

So, what should we expect from Uggla from this point on? Let's tackle each category.

Runs: He has consistently been hitting in the #5 spot in the order, so it's difficult to imagine that the 130-run pace is even close to sustainable. I still think my 96-run projection makes sense, so let's say he scores 60 more runs.

Homeruns: Uggla hit 31 last year and seems to have taken a leap that will allow him to surpass that number. However, it's hard to see him hitting 40. I'm going to say 35 for the season, meaning 21 more homers.

RBI: With Hermida, Ramirez, and Jacobs getting on base in front of him, Uggla should continue to rack up RBI. The 115-RBI pace that he's set should slow down a little as Uggla cools off, though. Let's say 105 for the season, meaning 73 more RBI.

SB: Uggla has already matched his stolen base total from last year with a big two. He stole 6 in his rookie season, so let's say he matches that with 4 more.

AVG: This is the big one. If Uggla can maintain a .300+ average, he'll be in Chase Utley territory among second basemen. He hit .282 in his rookie season and .245 last year, and was a career .276 hitter in the minors, so .323 seems unsustainable. Here's the most disturbing part. Take a look at Uggla's line drive rate and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the past three years:

The general rule is that the BABIP should be about .120 higher than the line drive rate. You can see that Uggla's BABIP was .141 higher in 2006 and .123 higher last year. This year? .217 higher. Based on that, it's hard to see Uggla hitting better than about .260-.270 the rest of the way. He'll probably end up with an average around .280-.285 for the season, thanks to his hot (lucky) start.

So, here's what Uggla should get you from this point on:
60 R, 21 HR, 73 RBI, 4 SB, .265 AVG

Where does that place him among other second basemen? I'd say Uggla ranks about sixth, behind Utley, Upton, Phillips, Roberts, and Kinsler and just ahead of Cano.