What We Know

It's been a little while since I've posted anything. But, with the season 1/4 of the way finished, I think it's time to re-examine the fantasy baseball landscape. Here's what we know so far:

Cliff Lee is a god. Anyone who saw this coming (I don't know of anyone) is also a god. While the current level of performance is unsustainable, Lee has clearly turned a corner. At some point, he's going to give up a few more walks, as .7 BB/9 is far better than his career mark of 2.9 BB/9. From this point on, I'd look for an ERA in the low 3's and about 13-15 more wins. That ain't bad, but if you can get a true stud fantasy performer right now, I'd say do it. Basically, he's for real, but not this real.

Lance Berkman is not over the hill. Power, average, and stolen bases! What a steal in the second or third round he turned out to be. Like Cliff Lee, Berkman clearly won't be able to keep up this pace, but barring injury, he'll be a top-10 fantasy performer this year.

Rich Hill is a heart-breaker. I feel like I'm breaking up with my girlfriend of the past two years. "We had some really good times together, Rich. I'm just not in a place right now, emotionally, where I can put the effort into this relationship that you need and deserve." (I've been cheating on him with Jair Jurrjens, but don't tell him.) Seriously, he may get things figured out, but it's just not worth the trouble at this point.

The sluggers are struggling. A lot of fantasy owners drafting at the end of the first round were faced with the decision of Prince Fielder vs. Ryan Howard. Now, we know the correct answer: Lance Berkman. Fielder and Howard have both been tremendously disappointing. Will they turn it around? Yes. Will they hit 50 homers? No. At this point, you have to modify your expectations to something like 35-40 homers, and a sub-.275 batting average for both players. If I was going to buy low on one of them, it would be Howard because he has a better supporting cast (Utley and Burrell).

Josh Hamilton is the real deal. He won't keep up his current RBI-per-game pace, but he should easily top 120 with about 30 homers.

C.C. Sabathia is still very good. The K-rate is better than one per inning and the big guy is pitching for a contract. Buy low if it's not too late.

Closers-by-committee suck. The Cardinals and Brewers are like the Denver Broncos of baseball. Think of us poor fantasy players and pick a closer. Please.

Matt Kemp is good. The power has been lacking, but the nine steals are nice. I'm still looking for at least 20 homers and now it's looking like 30 steals.

Young pitchers are frustrating. Clay Buchholz, Johnny Cueto, and Chad Billingsley have all been brilliant at times, and awful at times. Stick with these guys. Over the long haul, there will be more brilliant than awful. Feel free to cut bait on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Andrew Miller and Jon Lester fall somewhere in the middle.

It's nice to have a good catcher. Currently in the Yahoo game, there are only two catchers (Geovany Soto and Brian McCann) ranked in the top 100 players. And the sixth-ranked catcher (Mike Napoli) only plays every other day. The best power option before the season started (Victor Martinez) is homerless. Be thankful if you drafted Soto in the 13th round.

Third base is deep. Eleven third basemen rank in the top 100, including names like Kevin Youkilis, Aubrey Huff, Mark Reynolds, and Edwin Encarnacion (and not including Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez.) These are guys who could've been had after the 12th round. That's good value.

You have an idea of how good your team is. If you're near the bottom of your league right now, it is officially time to panic. Make some trades for guys who have gotten off to slow starts (Howard, Fielder, Cabrera, Guerrero, Teixeira, V-Mart, Cano, Sabathia, Verlander, etc.). Take a few chances. And be vigilant with regard to call-ups (Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw) and closer changes. It's not too late, but it's going to take some effort (and luck).