In general, a player's batting average on balls in play should be about .120 higher than his line drive rate. If the difference is greater than that, he's getting lucky. If it's lower, he's getting unlucky. With that introduction, let's take a look at some notable names who are getting lucky in the batting average department.
This is not a comprehensive list. I just picked some names that stood out as key fantasy contributors. You can consider these players over-valued right now because their batting averages are artificially high thanks to a lucky BABIP number. I'm not saying you should run out and trade these players immediately. Just know that you can expect to see their batting averages dip in the coming months.
Interesting to see both Upton boys on the list. Also, B.J. Upton led the majors in BABIP last year (.393) with only a .196 line drive rate. Maybe he's one of those guys who finds a way to beat the odds, possibly because of his speed.
Another interesting note: Matt Kemp is currently leading the majors in BABIP (.412), but the amazing thing is that his line drive rate (.299) supports that BABIP. Kemp is a going to be a superstar.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Line Drive Rate and BABIP - Who's Getting Lucky?
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2 comments:
I disagree with this. If a player's line drive rate is high, he's not getting lucky - he's a better hitter.
Players with the highest line drive rates should have the highest BABIPs, because they find the ground faster and are therefore less likely to be caught.
That said, those among the BABIP leaders with a low line drive rate are the lucky ones, because grounders and fly balls are much more likely to make outs.
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