Breakout Candidates based on Spring numbers

As I've said before, Spring Training stats don't mean much. Obviously, if there's a player with injury questions who is performing well, that's probably a good sign. But for the most part, hitters are working out their swings and pitchers are trying new pitches or refining old ones.

But there is some evidence of a correlation between posting a slugging average (SLG) 200 points above one's career mark and a breakout season. So, I scanned the Spring Training numbers for high SLG and came up with some guys who are 200 points or more above their career averages. I also included some young players who don't have major league numbers yet.




Comments:

• The Tigers' Spring Training stadium must be a hitters' paradise because there are four Tigers on the list. Either that, or Detroit is going to score 1,200 runs this year.
• Yes, I know Billy Butler's SLG isn't actually 200 points above his career average, but it's close enough for a mention. I'm getting more and more excited about him.
• Josh Hamilton is ridiculous. He had a streak of 13 straight plate appearances where he reached base. He really could have an incredible year.
• It appears that Chase Headley will earn the starting left field job for the Padres. I wouldn't get overly excited, but he could make a nice little contribution in the 20-homer, 85-RBI neighborhood.
• I'm not sure if this is true, but I have a feeling that this whole 200-point increase thing applies less to older players like Torii Hunter, Lance Berkman, and Ivan Rodriguez. But maybe not.
• Andre Ethier's breakout is a little disconcerting for a Matt Kemp fan like myself. (Kemp didn't miss this list by much. He's having a good spring, too.)
• Evan Longoria might force the Rays to make him their starting third baseman. I think they'd ideally like to start him at AAA, but if he keeps hitting like this, it's going to be hard for them to deny him a spot on the 25-man roster.
• The bar was set pretty low for Erick Aybar (.295), but the .625 spring SLG probably makes Aybar the favorite for the shortstop gig in Anaheim over Maicer Izturis.