Draft Strategy - Lesson 3: Upside

If you take anything away from this site, this should be it, so pay attention.

Let's say you know of two equally-attractive girls with the exact same personality who are interested in you. Here's what you know about the two girls:

Girl A

• High school education
• Parents are middle class
• Favorite move is Titanic
• Doesn't understand guys' fascination with large breasts
• Gets together with her girlfriends to watch Grey's Anatomy

Girl B

• Recent medical school graduate
• Parents are loaded
• Has mentioned that porn is "pretty cool"
• Has expressed an interest in getting breast implants
• Gets together with her girlfriends to play drunk Twister

So, which girl do you go with? Girl B, of course. And, why? Because she has more Upside! They're both perfectly nice girls, both attractive, and both interested in you. But what sets Girl B apart is that she has the potential to make or inherit a lot of money and be extra fun in the sack.

What does this have to do with fantasy baseball, you ask? Bobby Abreu is Girl A and B.J. Upton is Girl B. You know more or less what you're going to get out of Abreu. And it's good. He's a solid fantasy contributor who you should seriously consider drafting, just as you would seriously consider dating Girl A. But then you meet B.J. And how could you settle for Bobby, when there's B.J.? Sure, he may make you cry at times, but there's a chance he'll be the belle of the ball, so to speak. And you can't miss out on that.

This isn't to say you should always go with Upside over the known commodity. If you did, you'd end up with a team of rookies and probably wouldn't fare too well. Here's what I'm saying: when you have a choice between two players who you project to have relatively equal stats, but one of them is a young guy whose stats have been improving and the other is a 35-year-old veteran whose stats have been stable for the past few years, go with the young guy. Every time.

How many people consistently win their fantasy league by taking a bunch of known commodities? Very few. It is absolutely essential that you draft a few guys who significantly outperfom expectations, and the easiest way to accomplish that is to draft players with Upside.

Here's what to look for:

• On the good side of the age curve. This means under 30 and preferably under 27.
• A recent upward trend. He should have been better in 2007 than he was in 2006.
• A good minor league track record. See Howard, Ryan.

Here's your All-Upside Team for 2008:

C - Geovany Soto

1B - Joey Votto

2B - B.J. Upton

3B - Alex Gordon

SS - Troy Tulowitzki

OF - Matt Kemp

OF - Nick Markakis

OF - Corey Hart

SP - Yovani Gallardo

SP - Francisco Liriano

SP - Chad Billingsley

RP - Huston Street