First Rounders, Attempt #2

Back at the beginning of January, I took a stab at what I thought the first round of a twelve-team draft should look like. After generating rankings using my projections, here's what I'm thinking at this point:

1. Alex Rodriguez - No brainer.
2. Hanley Ramirez - He worries me a little. But he's good. Real good.
3. Jose Reyes - The steals are just too valuable.
4. David Wright - Love the five-category contribution.
5. Johan Santana - He's going to be dominant in the NL.
6. Matt Holliday - Stud.
7. Jimmy Rollins - The drop-off in SS after J-Roll forces me to rank him this high.
8. Albert Pujols - His injury concerns really worry me. Otherwise, #4.
9. Ryan Braun - I believe.
10. Miguel Cabrera - He'll have a ton of RBI.
11. Chase Utley - Second base just isn't that shallow this year.
12. Prince Fielder - By a nose over Ryan Howard.

One thing I want to stress is this: the first round isn't going to win or lose your league for you. Leagues are won or lost in rounds 8-15, in my opinion. But the first round is important in that it dictates how the rest of your draft will go. For example. if you take Jimmy Rollins in the first round, you immediately know two things: 1) you don't need to take another shortstop and 2) you're ahead of the game in steals.

Another thing that needs to be said: look at where a player like Ryan Braun ranks on the draft platform that you're using. For example, he ranks 14th in the Yahoo game. Let's say you have the 11th pick in a twelve-team snake draft, which means you'll also have the 14th pick. Ryan Braun and Chase Utley are both still available. Who do you take? Chase Utley, of course. Why? Because you have to assume that the guy with the 12th pick will take him if you don't, whereas he may pass on Braun since he's ranked 14th. So, take Utley, hope the other guy doesn't take Braun, and grab him with the 14th overall pick. If the other guy takes him - oh well - grab Fielder or Howard and take comfort in knowing that third base is very deep.