A Note on Rookies

With some leagues drafting as early as this weekend, I thought I should clarify something about my rankings, specifically concerning rookies. You'll notice that I rank players like Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce pretty high. Those rankings are based on the assumption that they will have a starting job in the majors on Opening Day.

At this point (mid-February) it's very difficult to say how accurate that assumption is. So, I would be very careful about taking rookies this far before the season starts. Late in the draft, I think it's absolutely worth the risk. How often do you hold onto your last couple picks for the entire year, anyway?

Near the end of March, if it looks like Longoria and Bruce will start the year in the majors, I would have no problem taking either of them as early as the eleventh or twelfth round. But, for now, you should focus on more sure-things that early and save the speculative picks for the end of the draft.