Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Targets #1-100

Some may argue against targeting players because it causes you to focus too much on certain players at the risk of ignoring better players who have slipped in the draft. And I agree to a certain extent. It's fine to have targets, but you shouldn't get overly focused on them. But it's certainly worthwhile to have some players who you think have some upside, because - let's face it - the only way you win a league is by having some players break out.

So, I've put together a list of players you should think about targeting, but I want to stress that you shouldn't get carried away. Just because Matt Kemp is one of your targets, that doesn't mean you should draft him ahead of Bobby Abreu. Be reasonable.



Picks 1-10

The Big Three Shortstops - I've heard a few "experts" say that the shortstop position is deep this year. Here's my take: there are plenty of decent fantasy options at shortstop, but there is a huge gap between Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins and everyone else. Add in the fact that all three of them will give you a bunch of steals and these guys are incredibly valuable relative to their peers. A-Rod is the only one who should be taken ahead of Ramirez and Reyes; and don't be afraid to reach a little for Rollins.

Johan Santana - He is going to be one dominant mofo pitching in the NL for a team that scores runs. If he stays healthy, I predict he'll be the #1 player in fantasy baseball this season. The only thing that keeps him from being drafted as such is the inherent risk involved in taking a pitcher.




Picks 11-20

Ryan Braun - The subject of fierce debate in the fantasy community, Braun is an intriguing player. If he keeps up the pace he was on last year, he'll easily be the best player in fantasy baseball. However, that's extremely unlikely since lefties are bound to be much more careful with him this year (he had a 1.480 OPS against them in 2007) and his BABIP was far too high to justify his .324 batting average. Even still, it's not unreasonable to expect 100 runs, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 15 steals, and a .295 batting average - with room to the upside.

Grady Sizemore - I only have him ranked 15th overall, but the reason you should seriously consider targeting him is his upside (this will be a recurring theme). He's going to score a ton of runs and has a very legitimate shot at a 30/30 season. Remember, he's only 25.




Picks 21-30

B.J. Upton - Talk about upside. At only 23 years old, Upton is primed for a good ten years of fantasy domination. Last year, he hit 24 homers, stole 22 bases, scored 86 runs and drove in 82 - all in only 129 games. His BABIP indicates that Upton's in line for a huge fall in batting average from the .300 mark he posted last season, but everyone has their flaws. Scheduled to bat in the heart of the Tampa order, Upton could very easily approach triple digits in both runs and RBI. Don't be afraid to reach for him if you need to.



Picks 31-40

No one really jumps out at me. Just grab what you need at this point.



Picks 41-50

C.C. Sabathia - It feels like Sabathia has been around forever, but he's only 27. His 2007 K/BB ratio of 5.6 was the best of his career led all major league starters. Plus, he's playing for a contract this season. Draft the big guy and enjoy a bunch of wins and 200 strikeouts.



Picks 51-60

Chris B. Young - Yes, the batting average is ugly, but the kid hit 32 homers and stole 27 bases as a 23-year-old. Based on BABIP numbers, you should expect the batting average to be higher this year and the HR and SB numbers could be, too.

Ian Kinsler - If it turns out that I’m not fertile, I may artificially inseminate my wife with Kinsler’s seed. That’s how much I love this guy.

Corey Hart - One of the few guys out there who will provide a positive contribution above average in all five standard roto categories. Plus, his name sounds like an '80s teen heart-throb who you would expect to see on the cover of Tiger Beat magazine.


Picks 61-70

Adrian Gonzalez - If he played in Coors Field, Gonzalez would be a second- or third-rounder. Unfortunately, he plays in the toughest park for hitters in the majors. Even still, he'll overcome that and be a big run producer. It feels like he's been around for a while but he's only 25.



Picks 71-80

Again, no one really stands out here. I like Ryan Zimmerman, so he deserves a half-mention.



Picks 81-90

Daisuke Matsuzaka - The case for Daisuke is simple: High K/9 rate (8.8) and good run support. Some might say that more hitters will have figured him out by now. I have the opposite theory: he'll have figured out more hitters by now. He'll be more comfortable and I think that will show up in a decrease from his 2007 walk rate (3.5), which was far too high for a man of his talents.


Picks 91-100

Delmon Young - Some people may be looking at Young as a bust already, but that's unfair. Considering he was only 21 when he posted a .288 batting average, 13 homers, and 10 steals, there is a ton of room for upside from there. We're going to see one of two things happen with him: 1) he'll improve on his numbers every year for the next three or four years or 2) he'll take a huge step forward in one year and continue to play at that level. The possibility of the latter happening this year makes Young an exciting pick with huge upside.

Jeff Francoeur - He's still very young (24) and stands a great chance of taking his power to another level at some point in the near future. His drop in homers from 29 to 19 last year doesn't worry me too much because his slugging average stayed about the same and his walk rate increased nicely. The increased walk rate is a sign that Francoeur is maturing as a hitter which will manifest itself in the form of a 35-homer season at some point.

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