Thursday, February 12, 2009

Ripping Off Matthew Berry

I just read Matthew Berry's annual Love/Hate column over at ESPN and I decided to be a fucking copycat. Call me unoriginal, call me lazy, but it's a fun and easy way to say who you like and who you don't. Remember, when I say I love or hate a guy, it's relative to their average draft position. By the way, Matthew Berry isn't any better at fantasy sports than I am (as far as I can tell), but he is terribly entertaining and I highly recommend reading his stuff. If you compare our lists, you'll find that I agree just as often as I disagree with him.

Love

Catcher

Matt Wieters - This comes with a caveat: only if you can afford to stash him on your bench for a month and a half. Use Pablo Sandoval during that time and then once Wieters gets the call, trade Sandoval and enjoy top-tier offensive production from the catcher slot. By the way, I've seen Wieters go in the 6th round (not a good deal) and I've seen him go in the 15th round (good deal), so it depends on the mindset of your league-mates.

Chris Iannetta - Expect 20 homers and a good batting average.

Pablo Sandoval - He's going near the very end of most drafts, but should provide 15-20 homers and a decent batting average.



First Base
Joey Votto - The eighth or ninth round? Are you kidding me?

Conor Jackson - Should score and drive in plenty of runs with a good batting average. Homeruns are lacking, but he's just so cheap.

Billy Butler - Loads of potential.


Second Base
Rickie Weeks - I know, I know. But anyone who has 100-run, 20-homer, 30-steal ability is an absolute steal in the 17th round, batting average be damned.

Ian Stewart - 10 homers in half a season last year.

Jose Lopez - 17 homers, 89 RBI, and a .297 average last year. Plus, he's only 25. The only thing not to like is the lack of steals.



Third Base
Adrian Beltre - Great value. Contract year.

Alex Gordon - I still believe.

Mark Reynolds - Love the power, plus ten steals. Batting average is obviously a concern, but in the late rounds, it's worth a chance.




Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins - The drop-off at shortstop is so steep after Rollins that he's worth a first-round pick.

Elvis Andrus - If anyone is the next Jose Reyes, it's this guy. (For the record, I don't think he's the next Jose Reyes, but that's his upside.)

Alexei Ramirez - Nice power/speed combo.


Outfield
Matt Holliday - Yes, his numbers will take a hit, but Yahoo has him ranked 36th overall. That's too much of a hit in my opinion.

Nelson Cruz - 30 homers, 15 steals, and a decent batting average are well within reach.

Jay Bruce - He showed the superstar potential last year. I expect him to continue to improve this year.

Matt Kemp - I love drafting guys who I can picture being first-rounders the next year. Kemp could easily go 30/30 with a .300 average.

Lastings Milledge - A poor man's Matt Kemp.

Elijah Dukes - I'm not going to say anything about his attitude. All I'm going to say is that Dukes hit 13 homers and stole 13 bases in half a season in 2008 and he's only 24.

Justin Upton - He'll be a first-rounder some day. It could be sooner than we think.

Cameron Maybin - He could pull a Hanley Ramirez and explode in his first full season in the majors.

Jayson Werth - Simply an overlooked player. Good value in the middle rounds.


Starting Pitcher
Javier Vazquez - Love the K rate, love the move to the National League, love the 11th round draft position.

Kevin Slowey - Last year, I almost completely neglected the WHIP category. Not this year!

John Maine - Good comeback candidate can be had for cheap.

Scott Baker - Kevin Slowey with a few more K's and a slightly higher WHIP.

Ted Lilly - High strikeout total and good run support in the 16th round? Yes, please.

Jered Weaver - Good strikeouts, good WHIP, 17th round.

Erik Bedard - He was actually pretty decent last year, despite playing hurt. If healthy (big "if"), he could provide 5th round value in the 15th round.

J.A. Happ - Had a great year at AAA, should be part of the rotation.

Wandy Rodriguez

Hiroki Kuroda

Yovani Gallardo - Like the K's.

Manny Parra

Gil Meche

Max Scherzer - If he's healthy, I love the K's.

Andy Sonnanstine


Relief Pitcher
Carlos Marmol - If you're going to pay a high price for a reliever, Marmol is your man. Love the K's.

Frank Francisco - Tons of K's. Had damn well better be given the closer job.

Chad Qualls - Cheap saves.

Heath Bell - Cheap saves.

Joel Hanrahan - Cheap saves.

Joey Devine - May have to share the closer role with Brad Ziegler, but Devine is really good.

Matt Lindstrom - Cheap saves.





Hate

Catcher
Jorge Posada - He's old.

Bengie Molina - He's getting old.

Dioner Navarro - He's young but overrated. Yes, he was an All-Star, but look at his numbers.


First Base
Justin Morneau - He's good, but just not 2nd or 3rd round good. The batting average swings wildly year to year.

Paul Konerko - He's done.

Adam Dunn - The batting average is just too tough to take.


Second Base
Howie Kendrick - Should hit for a decent average and chip in a few steals, but the complete lack of power turns me off.

Placido Polanco - A good batting average only gets you so far.

Akinori Iwamura - Only contributes in runs.


Third Base
Evan Longoria - Yes, this is coming from the guy who absolutely adored Longoria last year. But the early second round draft position is just too much for a guy who doesn't steal a ton of bases and won't hit for a very high average. I'll draft him next year in the third round, thank you very much.

Kevin Youkilis

Aubrey Huff - Regression.


Shortstop
Michael Young - Getting old.

Mike Aviles - I'm not buying it.

Orlando Cabrera - Getting old.


Outfield
B.J. Upton - In theory, I love Upton. But when he's being drafted 12th or 13th overall, I have to pass. I believe the power will improve, but it is a question mark. So is the batting average. So is the health. Too many question marks to justify such a high draft position.

Manny Ramirez - He'll get a two-year deal which means he'll have no motivation this year. Plus, he's getting old.

Carlos Quentin - I do believe Quentin is good. Just not second round good.

Ichiro Suzuki - He gets drafted for his steal and batting average. Did you know he only hit .310 last year? Yes, .310 is good, but it's not that good.

Ryan Ludwick - I'm not buying it.

Vernon Wells - Face it, his glory days are behind him.

Shane Victorino - Fourth round? Really?

Hideki Matsui

Rick Ankiel


Starting Pitcher
John Lackey

Roy Oswalt

Jon Lester - Too few K's for my taste. Yes, he's good, but not ace-of-my-fantasy staff good.

Carlos Zambrano - Striking out fewer and fewer.

Gavin Floyd

Fausto Carmona

Chien-Ming Wang

Adam Wainwright

Josh Johnson

Edinson Volquez - I like Volquez's K's, but the WHIP is ugly.

Cliff Lee - Expect some regression.

Felix Hernandez - There's still a chance he's the next big thing, but I'm getting impatient.

Chris Young

Francisco Liriano - I really like Liriano but he's just too expensive for me this year.

Aaron Harang


Relief Pitcher
Francisco Rodriguez - His strikeouts are declining and he's an injury waiting to happen.

Bobby Jenks - Where did all the strikeouts go?

B.J. Ryan

Joakim Soria - Good, but overrated.

Jonathan Papelbon - He's the best, but you'll have to overpay to get him.

Joe Nathan - He's the second-best, but you'll have to overpay to get him.

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