Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Top 10 - Starting Pitchers Who Will Decline

People love lists. They're easy to look at, quick to read, and just good old-fashioned fun. With the season almost halfway finished, here are the top ten pitchers whose performance I expect to decline significantly from current levels.

1. Gavin Floyd
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
2. Joe Saunders
Reason: 2.0 K/BB ratio; won't get a ton of run support
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Reason: Utter lack of control; poor second half last year
4. Aaron Cook
Reason: Few strikeouts; just plain lucky so far
5. Aaron Laffey
Reason: Can't strike a guy out to save his life
6. Armando Galarraga
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
7. Tim Hudson
Reason: Nothing in particular; collectively, his stats just don't support a 2.96 ERA
8. Ervin Santana
Reason: Just the possibility that he goes back to his head-case ways, but the strikeouts look very nice
9. John Danks
Reason: The K/BB ratio is ok, but not great - at least not 2.80 ERA great
10. Justin Duchscherer
Reason: Not quite enough strikeouts to justify a 1.99 ERA (love the low HR total, though)

Special mention: Edinson Volquez and Cliff Lee will certainly regress from their current other-worldly performances, but I still think they'll both be very good for the rest of the season, whereas the players mentioned above could actually hurt you in the second half.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have Carlos Quentin was thinking about trading him at his high. I was thinking about offering for an underperforming OF like Guerrero, or perhaps a solid SP. Thoughts? I have Dunn on the bench, but he is too inconsistent for my liking and my power numbers are good enough. The only hitting category I ever lose is Steals although I have Kinsler, HRam, and Hart.

Cobb said...

If I had to place a bet on either Quentin or Guerrero for the rest of the season, I'd bet on Guerrero. He's definitely in decline, but he's still a very good hitter, and there remains the distinct possibility that pitchers are starting to figure out Quentin.