People love lists. They're easy to look at, quick to read, and just good old-fashioned fun. With the season almost halfway finished, here are the top ten pitchers whose performance I expect to decline significantly from current levels.
1. Gavin Floyd
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
2. Joe Saunders
Reason: 2.0 K/BB ratio; won't get a ton of run support
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Reason: Utter lack of control; poor second half last year
4. Aaron Cook
Reason: Few strikeouts; just plain lucky so far
5. Aaron Laffey
Reason: Can't strike a guy out to save his life
6. Armando Galarraga
Reason: 1.7 K/BB ratio
7. Tim Hudson
Reason: Nothing in particular; collectively, his stats just don't support a 2.96 ERA
8. Ervin Santana
Reason: Just the possibility that he goes back to his head-case ways, but the strikeouts look very nice
9. John Danks
Reason: The K/BB ratio is ok, but not great - at least not 2.80 ERA great
10. Justin Duchscherer
Reason: Not quite enough strikeouts to justify a 1.99 ERA (love the low HR total, though)
Special mention: Edinson Volquez and Cliff Lee will certainly regress from their current other-worldly performances, but I still think they'll both be very good for the rest of the season, whereas the players mentioned above could actually hurt you in the second half.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Top 10 - Starting Pitchers Who Will Decline
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2 comments:
I have Carlos Quentin was thinking about trading him at his high. I was thinking about offering for an underperforming OF like Guerrero, or perhaps a solid SP. Thoughts? I have Dunn on the bench, but he is too inconsistent for my liking and my power numbers are good enough. The only hitting category I ever lose is Steals although I have Kinsler, HRam, and Hart.
If I had to place a bet on either Quentin or Guerrero for the rest of the season, I'd bet on Guerrero. He's definitely in decline, but he's still a very good hitter, and there remains the distinct possibility that pitchers are starting to figure out Quentin.
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