Draft Strategy - Lesson 4: Marginal Value

In one of my rotisserie leagues last year, my first three picks were: David Wright, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez. Pretty good, right? Well, the problem was that I drafted 135 steals with my first three picks. That's ok, actually. It just meant that I was set when it came to stolen bases. But what did proceed to do? I drafted Alex Rios, Ian Kinsler, and Dave Roberts.

Once I got to 135 projected steals, the value of each additional stolen base decreased significantly. Maybe the next 15-20 were worth something because they pushed me from 2nd or 3rd place in that category to 1st place. But everything after that was just a waste.

I ended up winning the category by 36 steals and feeling pretty freakin' stupid that I won by that much in steals while finishing second in strikeouts by only 4! Substitute some steals that I drafted with some strikeouts and I could have had another point.

The lesson is that you need to be aware of where your team stands in each category at any point in the draft. If you think you already have enough homers and RBI to finish second in those categories, but only enough steals to finish fifth in that category, make your next pick a speedster.

More specifically, let's say you take Carl Crawford in the second round. At that moment, you should visualize Juan Pierre dropping a few spots in your rankings. When your next pick is Magglio Ordonez, you should picture Pierre rising back up a few spots.

That is, anytime you use a pick to take someone with a certain set of skills, everyone with the same set of skills loses a little value. And once you've reached the point where a first or second place finish in a category becomes very likely, the value of that stat basically goes to zero. So, when I took Wright, Crawford, and Ramirez in the first three rounds, Juan Pierre's value went to zero (or close to it, since I theoretically could have traded him or kept him as a reserve in case of injury).

Bottom line: keep track of where you're strong and where you're weak throughout the course of the draft and adjust your rankings accordingly.

P.S. - This probably goes without saying, but I should mention that when you draft a certain position, the value of everyone else at that position immediately drops immensely. When you take Jimmy Rollins in the first round, Troy Tulowitzki's value drops close to zero, considering you would have to take him in the third or fourth round. Sure, you could use him at utility, but why would you draft a shortstop in the fourth round, just to use him at utility? That's just silly.